Tuesday, June 25, 2024

NBA Western Conference finals: Warriors vs. Mavericks odds, Game 2 picks, prediction from expert on 87-34 run

The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals on Friday evening. Golden State took a 1-0 series lead with a 112-87 win in Game on Wednesday. Dallas aims to respond and steal home-court advantage with a win in the rematch behind All-Star Luka Doncic. Andre Iguodala (back), Gary Payton II (elbow), and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors, with Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) ruled out for the Mavericks.

Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 6.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks or NBA playoff predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 87-34 his last 121 NBA money line picks, returning over $3,100 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavs vs. Warriors, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA playoff odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -6.5 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 214 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -270, Mavericks +220 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-5 against the spread in playoff games 
  • GSW: The Warriors are 6-6 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has enjoyed two-way success in the playoffs. Led by Doncic and an effective small-ball approach, the Mavericks have flummoxed the opposition, and Dallas is shooting 37.2 percent from 3-point range. The Mavericks also effectively avoid mistakes, committing only 10.5 turnovers per game. Opponents are scoring only 11.7 points per game off turnovers as a result, and Golden State has a weakness on the defensive glass with only a 71.0 percent defensive rebound rate. Doncic is a unique talent who can create mismatch advantages, and he is averaging 30.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. 

On defense, the Mavericks are holding opponents to only 1.02 points per possession in the last three games. Dallas is allowing only 33.9 percent 3-point shooting in the playoffs, and opponents are making less than 10 triples per game against the Mavericks. The Mavericks are also elite in transition defense, yielding a playoff-best 8.1 fast break points per game.

Why the Warriors can cover

The Warriors are dynamic on offense, as evidenced by a Game 1 performance in which they shot 56 percent from the floor with seven players scoring in double figures. Headlined by the best shooter in NBA history in Stephen Curry, the Warriors tax any opposing defense, but Golden State’s defense is also elite. The Warriors held the Mavericks to 0.91 points per possession in Game 1, with Dallas shooting 36 percent from the floor and 23 percent from three-point range with only 14 assists. 

For the entire playoffs, Golden State is limiting opponents to less than 1.09 points per possession and 43.6 percent shooting from the field. That isn’t new ground for the Warriors, as Golden State finished with the No. 2 defensive rating (106.6) in the NBA during the regular season. The Warriors ranked in the top three of the NBA in field goal percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed and assists allowed, with top-six marks in steals, points allowed in the paint, and defensive rebound rate. Dallas is dangerous on offense, but the Mavericks also ranked No. 25 or worse in the NBA in assists, second-chance points, points in the paint and fast break points during the 82-game regular season.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

For Game 2 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.  

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