The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals on Monday evening in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Boston stole home-court advantage with a Game 2 win in Miami, only for the Heat to reclaim that edge with a Game 3 road win on Saturday. Jayson Tatum (cervical nerve) is listed as probable for the Celtics. Jimmy Butler (knee), Tyler Herro (groin), Kyle Lowry (hamstring), Max Strus (hamstring), P.J. Tucker (knee) and Gabe Vincent (hamstring) are listed as questionable for the Heat.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 6.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 208.5 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks or NBA playoff predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Zack Cimini has to say.
A Las Vegas handicapper who’s never afraid to buck conventional wisdom, Cimini excels in multiple sports. Over the past 32 NBA picks, Cimini is 21-11, returning almost $900 to $100 players. He is also on an amazing 34-16-1 run with his last 51 against-the-spread picks involving the Celtics, returning $1,548 to $100 players.
Now, Cimini has set his sights on Heat vs. Celtics, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -6.5
- Heat vs. Celtics over-under: 208.5 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -280, Heat +230
- Heat vs. Celtics tickets: See tickets at StubHub
- MIA: The Heat are 9-5 against the spread in playoff games
- BOS: The Celtics are 9-5 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Why the Heat can cover
Miami leads the series, and the Heat are playing exceedingly well in the NBA playoffs 2022. The Heat are out-scoring opponents by nearly seven points per 100 possessions in the postseason, including a 114.3 offensive rating. Miami is securing 31 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass, leading to 15.0 second-chance points per game. While there are injury concerns with Butler in advance of Game 4, standout big man Bam Adebayo put together an explosive effort in Game 3, producing 31 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and four steals against Boston.
On the other end of the floor, Miami was a top-five defensive team in the regular season, and the Heat are quite stingy. Erik Spoelstra’s team is giving up only 107.4 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, and the Heat secure nearly 75 percent of available defensive rebounds on the defensive glass. Miami is creating 15.9 turnovers per game, including 24 in Game 3, and the Heat capitalize by averaging 19.9 points per game off turnovers. The Heat led the NBA in points allowed in the paint during the regular season, and they are allowing even fewer (38.0 per game) in the playoffs.
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston’s offense is operating at an impressive level in the 2022 postseason. The Celtics are scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions across three rounds, and that jumps to more than 117 points per 100 possessions in the series against the Heat. Boston is passing the ball well, assisting on 64.9 percent of field goals and averaging 24.8 assists per contest. The Celtics are also riding a 58.7 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs, headlined by a 62.3 percent true shooting mark in the series and a 40.6 percent 3-point shooting clip against Miami.
Boston is also securing almost 30 percent of its missed shots in the series, and the Celtics remain elite on defense. Boston led the NBA in myriad defensive categories in 2021-22, including field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, assists allowed and points allowed per possession. In the playoffs, Boston is yielding only 1.07 points per possession, with opponents averaging only 20.2 assists per game and making only 32.7 percent of 3-point attempts against the Celtics.
How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks
For Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals, Cimini is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.
