Good afternoon gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back in the saddle with you. The NBA postseason has pretty underwhelming of late, hasn’t it?
Despite not having veteran guard Marcus Smart in the lineup, the Boston Celtics still were able to manhandle the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final. Before you could even blink, the Celtics raced out to a 20-point lead and the Heat had arguably their most underwhelming performance of the playoffs. Considering that the Heat stifled the Celtics in Game 3 on Saturday, I assumed we’d get a close contest in Game 4, but it didn’t even come close to turning out that way.
Anyway, it’s another day and we’re dipping into the Western Conference Final for Tuesday’s picks. Let’s get right to it!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Hot Ticket
Warriors vs. Mavericks, 9 p.m. | TV: TNT
Latest Odds: Golden State Warriors +1.5
- Key Trend: Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog
- The Pick: Warriors +1 (-110)
The Warriors have a chance to close out the Western Conference Final tonight after a convincing victory in Game 3, and I believe that they’ll do it. Even in Game 2, when the Mavericks held a double-digit halftime lead thanks to a 42-point performance from Luke Doncic, the Warriors were still able to rally from the depths of despair to win. They just have that championship DNA that they can draw from in tough situations, and we’ve seen it time and time again throughout the postseason.
The Warriors have covered the spread in each of their last four games and are 4-1 ATS over their last five games when their opponent has scored 100 or more points in their previous contest. To make matters worse for the Mavericks, the Warriors are 4-1 ATS over their last five games as an underdog. It also doesn’t hurt that the Warriors hold a 15-5-1 mark ATS over their last 21 Conference Final games in recent years. If Golden State gets the usual perimeter production that they’ve grown accustomed to throughout the postseason, the Warriors should close this one out.
Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points (-105): — Speaking of that perimeter production, Stephen Curry has come up big for the Warriors throughout the Western Conference Final. In two of the three games, Curry has scored at least 31 points and connected on 47.8 percent of his three-point shots during that stretch. With that in mind, I’m all in on Curry’s points prop in Game 4.
Curry has scored at least 28 points in eight of his 14 games and, over his last six games, has drilled at least three shots from beyond the arc in each of those contests while making at least five threes in three of them. The Warriors star is absolutely thriving right now when it comes to shooting from the perimeter, which is why I’m more than happy to throw a few units down on Curry cashing on his scoring prop in a potential close-out game.
Key Trend: Curry has scored at least 28 points in three of his last four games
Hurricanes at Rangers, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN
Latest Odds: New York Rangers -110
The Pick: Rangers (-115) — The Rangers managed to rebound in a big way in Game 3 as they came away with a dominant 3-1 win to bring the series to 2-1. Igor Shesterkin stopped 43 of the 44 shots that he faced and New York got incredible production from their top line, including Mika Zibanejad. I’m expecting the Rangers to continue to ride that momentum and even the series tonight.
The Rangers own a 31-10-2 record this season when playing at Madison Square Garden and have won their past four home games. They also have a 24-9 mark over their last 33 games when their opponent scores two or fewer goals in their previous game. With Shesterkin only surrendering five goals in the entire series, he’s really finding his stride. If that continues, I have few doubts that the Rangers can even this series in Game 4.
Key Trend: Rangers are 4-0 in their last four home games