Monday, July 4, 2022

2022 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from same golf model that called the Masters

Major season continues in golf with the 2022 U.S. Open on Thursday, June 16. The world’s top players will converge on The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., where Jon Rahm will try to defend his U.S. Open title. He’ll take on a loaded 2022 U.S. Open field that includes Masters winner Scottie Scheffler, PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas and top-ranked players like Cameron Smith and Collin Morikawa. Tiger Woods’ status is uncertain after he withdrew before the fourth round of the PGA Championship.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Scheffler as the 11-1 favorite in its 2022 U.S. Open odds, followed closely by Jon Rahm at 12-1. Seven other 2022 U.S. Open contenders are better than 20-1, with Thomas joining Rory McIlroy and Morikawa at 14-1. Other notable names on the PGA odds board include Woods at 50-1, Jordan Spieth at 22-1 and Bryson DeChambeau at 28-1. Before making any 2022 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the PGA Tour predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven golf model

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2022 U.S. Open golf tournament is approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 U.S. Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2022: Scottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 player and the tournament favorite, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Scheffler has been on fire this season, producing four wins and seven top-10 finishes, highlighted by his victory at Augusta. But he’s cooled a bit the last few weeks. 

He’s finished 15th or worse in his last three events and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He also hasn’t found much success at the U.S. Open, missing the cut twice in four tries. The model doesn’t like him at these premium odds, making him a golfer to fade in your 2022 U.S. Open bets. 

Another surprise: Brooks Koepka, an 18-1 long shot, makes a surprising run for the title. He has a better chance to win than his odds imply, making him one of the 2022 U.S. Open sleepers to target. Koepka hasn’t been in strong form this season, but his historical dominance at the U.S. Open makes him a golfer to keep on your radar.

The four-time major winner has two U.S. Open victories (2017, 2018) and has record four straight top-five finishes in this event. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in any of his appearances since 2012. He also ranks inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour in driving distance this season and moved into the top 50 in strokes gained putting, both important metrics at Brookline, making him a golfer to back at the U.S. Open 2022. 

How to make 2022 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting three other golfers with odds of 18-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

2022 U.S. Open odds, field

Scottie Scheffler 11-1

Jon Rahm 12-1

Rory McIlroy 14-1

Justin Thomas 14-1

Collin Morikawa 14-1

Dustin Johnson 16-1 

Cameron Smith 18-1

Xander Schauffele 18-1

Brooks Koepka 18-1

Patrick Cantlay 20-1

Viktor Hovland 20-1

Jordan Spieth 22-1

Shane Lowry 25-1

Will Zalatoris 28-1

Bryson DeChambeau 28-1

Hideki Matsuyama 30-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 35-1

Daniel Berger 35-1

Tony Finau 35-1

Joaquin Niemann 40-1

Paul Casey 40-1

Louis Oosthuizen 40-1

Tyrrell Hatton 40-1

Sam Burns 40-1

Webb Simpson 40-1

Tiger Woods 50-1

Tommy Fleetwood 50-1

Corey Conners 50-1

Justin Rose 50-1

Abraham Ancer 60-1

Harris English 60-1

Gary Woodland 65-1

Matthew Wolff 65-1

Marc Leishman 65-1

Patrick Reed 65-1

Jason Kokrak 65-1

Sungjae Im 65-1

Garrick Higgo 65-1

Jason Day 70-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80-1

Phil Mickelson 80-1

Billy Horschel 80-1

Adam Scott 80-1

Max Homa 80-1

Sergio Garcia 80-1

Brian Harman 100-1

Russell Henley 100-1

Charley Hoffman 100-1

Lee Westwood 100-1

Branden Grace 100-1

Guido Migliozzi 125-1

Si-Woo Kim 125-1

Francesco Molinari 125-1

Bubba Watson 125-1

Thomas Pieters 125-1

Matt Wallace 125-1

Cameron Champ 125-1

Stewart Cink 150-1

Martin Kaymer 150-1

Ryan Palmer 150-1

Robert Macintyre 150-1

Carlos Ortiz 150-1

Kevin Kisner 150-1

Ian Poulter 150-1

Matt Kuchar 150-1

Kevin Streelman 150-1

Hudson Swafford 200-1

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