Saturday, July 2, 2022

NBA Western Conference finals: Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, Game 5 picks, prediction from expert on 89-36 roll

The Golden State Warriors look to clinch a berth in the 2022 NBA Finals on Thursday evening. Golden State leads the Dallas Mavericks by a 3-1 margin in the Western Conference finals, with Game 5 set to take place at the Chase Center. Dallas aims to avoid elimination and extend this 2022 NBA playoff series with a win. Otto Porter Jr. (foot) is listed as questionable for the Warriors, with Andre Iguodala (back), Gary Payton II (elbow), and James Wiseman (knee) ruled out. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is out for the Mavericks.

Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a seven-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 89-36 his last 125 NBA money line picks, returning over $2,900 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavs vs. Warriors, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -7 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 215.5 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -320, Mavericks +250 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors tickets: See tickets at Stubhub

  • DAL: The Mavericks are 10-7 against the spread in playoff games 
  • GSW: The Warriors are 8-7 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has two-way strengths, and the Mavericks showcased their upside in Game 4. The Mavericks connected on 20 3-pointers, making 47 percent of long-range offerings on Tuesday, and also produced 30 assists and only eight turnovers in the team’s first win of the series. Dallas is averaging 26.5 free throw attempts per game in the series, boosting efficiency, and are shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs. The Mavericks are also elite in ball security, ranking in the top three of the NBA in turnover avoidance during the regular season, committing only 10.4 turnovers per game in the postseason. 

The Mavericks also have an elite player in Luka Doncic, who is at the center of the team’s attack. Doncic is leading the NBA playoffs 2022 in averaging 31.9 points per game, and that includes 33.0 points per game in the series. Doncic is also averaging 9.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game in the playoffs, and the Mavericks are stingy defensively. The Mavs finished in the top eight of the NBA in defensive rating this season, leading the league in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game). Dallas can also bank on Golden State’s ball security issues, with the Warriors committing a turnover on 15 percent of offensive possessions in 2021-22.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State’s defense is quite impressive, including the No. 2 overall mark in defensive efficiency during the regular season. This series, and the team’s entire playoff run, has been kicked by its offense, however, and Golden State is dominating. The Warriors are scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in the series against Dallas, and are generating more than 1.15 points per possession during the extended playoff run. The Warriors are averaging 27.8 assists per game in the series, generating more than twice as many assists as turnovers, and Golden State is shooting 52 percent from the floor and 38.5 percent from 3-point range. 

Stephen Curry is the centerpiece of the team’s approach, leading the NBA in 3-pointers made during the regular season. Curry is also shooting 47.1 percent from 3-point range in the series, and he is generating 26.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. The Warriors also led the NBA in assist rate (66.9 percent) during the regular season, and Golden State ranked in the top five of the league in assists per game, 2-point accuracy and 3-pointers per game.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

For Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out. 

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