Italy is a team in transition as it gets set to face Germany in both teams’ opener of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League. The teams have a storied history against each other in European competition, and they have met five times in the World Cup. That includes the 1970 semifinal, known as the “Game of the Century,” which Italy won 4–3 in extra time, with five of the seven goals coming after regulation. There won’t be a rematch this year, as the Italians failed to reach the World Cup for the second consecutive cycle. The Germans breezed through their group in qualifying and are in the mix of favorites for Qatar 2022. The teams have not met since a friendly match in November 2016, a scoreless draw. The Azzurri have a 15-11-9 advantage in all-time meetings, including friendlies.
Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET at Renato Dall’Ara Stadium in Bologna, Italy. Germany is the +140 favorite (risk $100 to win $140) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Italy vs. Germany odds. Italy is the +190 underdog, a draw is priced at +240 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before you lock in your Germany vs. Italy picks or make any UEFA Nations League predictions, you have to see what SportsLine soccer insider Brandt Sutton has to say.
Sutton, a former collegiate soccer player, has been SportsLine’s top soccer editor for nearly five years. He has followed soccer closely for much longer and factors in managerial tactics, projected lineups and past performances to make the most-informed decisions possible, keeping his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Sutton has also been on a roll with his best bets, going 94-72 in his last 166 soccer picks, returning more than $2,400 for $100 bettors.
Now, Sutton has broken down the Italy vs. Germany matchup from every angle and just locked in his UEFA Nations League picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Germany vs. Italy:
- Italy vs. Germany spread: Germany -0.5
- Italy vs. Germany over-under: 2.5 goals
- Italy vs. Germany money line: Italy +190, Germany +140, Draw +240
- ITA: Gianluigi Donnarumma has 21 clean sheets in 40 starts for the national team
- GER: Manuel Neuer has 11 shutouts in Germany’s last 17 competitive games
Why you should back Germany
Die Mannschaft didn’t face much formidable competition, but it cruised through its qualifying for Qatar with a 9-0-1 mark and a 36-4 advantage in goals. Its last loss was to England in the Round of 16 of Euro 2020, and it is 8-1-0 while conceding just six goals in the nine matches since then. The only blemish is a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands in a March friendly. Thomas Muller scored in that match and is the team’s top international scorer. The 33-year-old has 43 goals in 112 international matches and remains one of the world’s top playmakers.
The Germans have a lot more talent than the Italians. Muller’s Bayern Munich teammates Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane, along with Leon Goretzka and Timo Werner, among others, provide plenty of firepower. All four have double-digit goals in their Germany careers, led by Werner (22) and Gnabry (20). Manager Hansi Flick also is working some young stars into the mix, including Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala, 19, in midfield and Freiburg 22-year-old Nico Schlotterbeck on the back line.
Why you should back Italy
The Azzurri will be looking to make a statement that they aren’t dead yet. They also will have the home crowd behind them, and that was a huge benefit in the group stage as the team went on to win the Euro 2020 title last summer. Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma was the first goalkeeper to be named outstanding player in that tournament. The 23-year-old Paris Saint-Germain rising star can keep his team in any game, and he had a 76.4 save percentage and nine clean sheets in 24 starts for PSG. Veteran captain Leonardo Bonucci will lead the defense in front of him.
The team will be without the likes of Ciro Immobile and Federico Chiesa up top, but Italy still has a fair amount of talent on its side. Marco Verratti could be back after missing Wednesday’s game, and Jorginho, Nicolo Barella and young players like Davide Frattesi and Sandro Tanali are in the mix for spots. Jorginho was a Ballon d’Or candidate after last season with Chelsea but is trying to regain that form. Andrea Bellotti is the top international scorer for the team with 12 goals in 43 matches, and veteran Lorenzo Insigne (10) could help him spearhead the attack.
How to make taly vs. Germany picks
Sutton has scrutinized the Germany vs. Italy match from every angle, and he is leaning over on the goal total. He also provides a confident best bet on the winner and has a full breakdown of the match. He’s only sharing his expert UEFA Nations League picks at SportsLine.
So, who wins Italy vs. Germany on Saturday? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Italy vs. Germany match, all from the soccer expert who has been crushing his soccer picks, and find out.