Thursday, June 30, 2022

Take advantage of the Celtics getting slept on, plus other best bets for Wednesday

There’s been a lot of controversy this week concerning the LIV Golf tour that so many PGA stars are playing in and the moral questions surrounding the decision. It’s a discussion I understand entirely, considering the financial backers of the events and what they hope to accomplish by hosting them.

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It’s a complex issue, but there’s one part of it that isn’t complicated at all as far as I’m concerned. I want to make it perfectly clear that if anybody is willing to pay me $150 million or $200 million to play in an event, I’ll take your money. The way I look at it, I can be poor and have a conscience just as easily as I can be super rich with a conscience, so why not try it while super-rich?

All right, since nobody has offered me $150 million yet, I’ll just have to make my money the old fashioned way.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


The Hot Ticket

Warriors at Celtics, 9 p.m. | TV: ABC

Latest Odds: Boston Celtics -145

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  • Key Trend: The Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Boston, and if you don’t cover as a dog, you aren’t winning as a dog.
  • The Pick: Celtics (-160)

I don’t make a habit of betting the money line in the NBA, but for the third straight game of this series, that’s where the best value is. As you can probably figure out for yourself based on the pick, if I were to bet the spread tonight, I’d be laying the points with Boston. I don’t think this spread is as big as it should be, but I don’t see as much value there.

I prefer to bet the Celtics to win and not worry about how much they win by. The Warriors are a popular public play because they’re the dynasty with all the recognizable names. That means the better team — and Boston is the better team! — gets slept on.

The Warriors ran away with Game 2 thanks to a dominant third quarter. They outscored Boston 35-14 in those 12 minutes, but the Celtics outscored Golden State 74-72 the rest of the game. That means nothing in the result, but it hints at how sustainable that quarter was for Golden State. The odds aren’t great that the Warriors will be able to repeat the feat in Boston. You can never count out a team like Golden State, but at this point, we can’t assume they’re the dominant team we once knew, either.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you prefer betting the spread, SportsLine expert Zach Cimini has done very well betting Celtics games this year, and he’s got a spread play for tonight you should check out.


The Picks

aaron-nola-phillies.jpg

MLB

Phillies at Brewers, 8:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Milwaukee Brewers +115

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The Pick: Brewers (+115) — While it’s not come close to the levels of #OperationFadeGrom (get better soon, Jacob), Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola is another NL East ace who often leads to wild prices on the market. He’s good, but he’s never quite as good as the price on the Phillies when he pitches, considering the rest of the team.

Nola is not good enough to justify the Phillies being road favorites against a superior team. Brewers starter Adrian Houser isn’t a stud. He doesn’t strike out enough guys, and he walks too many, but he doesn’t give up much dangerous contact. He’s also backed by the superior bullpen. The Brewers bats have been quiet lately, so this is far from a sure thing, but Milwaukee should be a slight favorite. If we’re getting them as a dog, we’re taking it.

Key Trend: Milwaukee is 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.

Red Sox at Angels, 9:38 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Los Angeles Angels +140

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The Pick: Angels (+140) — Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi is having a spectacular season so far. Through 63.1 innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.41 with a strikeout rate 18% better than league average. His walk rate of 3.9% is 53% better than the league average for starters. But, while all of that is great, there is an aspect to Eovaldi that makes him dangerous to trust as a favorite.

When he isn’t missing bats, he allows a lot of hard contact. His hard-hit rate is 34% higher than the league average, and his home runs allowed per nine innings is 117% higher than the average. All of which makes the Angels an interesting play here. They strike out a lot, ranking 28th in baseball with a 24.6% strikeout rate, but they also hit dingers. They rank seventh in the league in HR rate (3.25%) and 10th in ISO (.161). The Angels are a very live dog tonight, even if Mike Trout is out (though we’d obviously prefer he plays).

Key Trend: Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 16 HR this season. Only Miami’s Elieser Hernandez (18) has allowed more.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model can’t believe what it’s seeing in tonight’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. It wants you to hammer one side.


RBC Canadian Open Top 10s

As far as I’m aware, nobody is being paid $200 million to play in Canada this weekend, but that doesn’t mean we can’t win $200 million betting it. Our props are a bit chalkier than usual this week, but that’s because of all the names who aren’t playing.

  • Justin Thomas (+110)
  • Rory McIlroy (+125)
  • Shane Lowry (+175)
  • Tyrell Hatton (+275)
  • Chris Kirk (+400)

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