Sunday, July 3, 2022

Phillies vs. Nationals odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Friday, June 17 best bets from proven model

Washington D.C. hosts an intriguing NL East doubleheader on Friday. The day’s festivities begin with an afternoon matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals. Philadelphia toppled Washington by a 10-1 margin in the series opener on Thursday. The Nationals are 23-43 this season, and the Phillies are 33-31 in 2022.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as the -175 money-line favorite (risk $175 to win $100) for this 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 10.5 in the latest Phillies vs. Nationals odds. Before making any Nationals vs. Phillies picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a strong start to the 2022 season. It’s on a 55-42 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 10 weeks, returning over $600 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Nationals, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Nationals vs. Phillies:

  • Phillies vs. Nationals money line: Phillies -175, Nationals +155
  • Phillies vs. Nationals over-under: 10.5 runs
  • Phillies vs. Nationals run line: Phillies -1.5 (-130)
  • Phillies vs. Nationals tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • PHI: The Phillies are 11-9 in day games
  • WASH: The Nationals are 11-14 in day games

Featured Game | Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Why you should back the Phillies

Philadelphia has a potent offense, and the Phillies also have the superior starting pitcher in this matchup. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia, and he has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of 12 outings this season. Suarez has a 3.68 ERA on the road this season, and his career numbers are impressive. Suarez maintains a 3.27 career ERA on the road and a 3.09 ERA overall. He also holds opponents to a .679 career OPS, and left-handed hitters have a hideously ugly .481 OPS against him. 

Suarez keeps the ball in the yard with only 0.77 home runs allowed per nine innings in his MLB tenure, and the Nationals have the fewest home runs (52) in the National League this season. Washington is also in the bottom five of the NL in slugging percentage (.379), and the Nationals have some run prevention weaknesses in the bullpen. The Nationals are starting a struggling pitcher in Joan Adon (1-10, 6.95 ERA), and Washington’s relief corps has a 4.53 ERA and the second-highest home run rate (1.24 per nine innings) in the National League this season.

Why you should back the Nationals

Washington is struggling with a five-game losing streak, though positive regression could be in the offing. The Nationals are facing a Phillies team with a below-average bullpen, as Philadelphia’s relief pitchers have a 4.20 ERA this season. Philadelphia also has the worst bullpen walk rate (4.62 per nine innings) in the National League and, by all accounts, the Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. 

Washington also puts the ball in play, posting a 19.4 percent strikeout rate and the fewest overall strikeouts in the NL this season. The Nationals have 106 doubles, an above-average figure, and Washington also ranks in the top five of the National League in both batting average (.254) and hits (565) this season.

How to make Nationals vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 10.1 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Phillies vs. Nationals? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.  

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