Wednesday, July 6, 2022

2022 Big 12 win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for each team as Oklahoma, Texas face big numbers

Three new coaches and four transfer quarterbacks add a layer of mystique to a transitioning Big 12

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The Big 12 won’t undergo significant membership change until 2023, but the current makeup is finally starting to take shape ahead of the 2022 season. There are three new coaches and likely four new starting quarterbacks that transferred into the league, which makes predicting win totals more difficult than ever. 

That’s never stopped us before, however. Early over/under betting lines have been released across the Big 12, and there is value to be found. Here are win totals, picks and projected wins and losses for every Big 12 team in 2022 with odds provided by Caesar’s SportsBook. 


Over/under 8.0 wins

Analysis: The defending Big 12 champions lost some key pieces to the NFL Draft, but there are plenty of reasons to believe the Bears will still be the class of the Big 12. Baylor is the strongest team in the trenches on both ends after losing just one contributor between the offensive and defensive lines. Defensive linemen Apu Ika and Jaxon Player have a chance to be among the nation’s best duos. Finding new names at running back and wide receiver could determine whether the Bears can reach College Football Playoff contention, but the pieces are intriguing. Pick: Over 8.0 (-115)

Iowa State

Over/under 6.5 wins

  • Wins: Southeast Missouri State, Ohio, at Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech
  • Losses: at Iowa, Baylor, at Texas, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at TCU

Analysis: The Cyclones wasted perhaps the most talented roster in program history during an incredibly frustrating 2021 season, and they enter 2022 as an enigma. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has led the program to its greatest period of success in program history during a standout six-year run, but he now has to continue the momentum without program mainstays like Brock Purdy, Mike Rose and Greg Eisworth II. Campbell will have his roster coached and ready to reach bowl eligibility, but this will be a team in transition. Pick: Under 6.5 (-115)


Over/under 2.5

  • Wins: Tennessee Tech, Duke, TCU
  • Losses: at West Virginia, at Houston, Iowa State, at Oklahoma, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, Texas, at Kansas State

Analysis: It’s time to start talking about Kansas like a real football team. The Jayhawks earned headlines for upsetting Texas, but the 57-56 overtime victory was only the first leg of QB Jalon Daniels‘ impressive finish in Lance Leipold’s debut season. The Jayhawks gave Oklahoma a scare before Caleb Williams pulled out some late-game heroics. Later, KU lost to TCU and West Virginia by a combined nine points in the final two games of the year. Kansas is poised to ruin a sloppy opponent with sharp execution; TCU is my pick, for now. Don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks even compete for four wins. Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

Kansas State

Over/under 6.5 wins

  • Wins: South Dakota, Missouri, Tulane, at Oklahoma, Texas Tech, at TCU, Texas, at West Virginia, Kansas
  • Losses: at Iowa State, Oklahoma State, at Baylor

Analysis: The Wildcats are the most undervalued team in the Big 12 by a mile. Kansas State boasts arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the conference. Running back Deuce Vaughn quietly had a ridiculous sophomore season with 1,872 yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns. Defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah had more sacks last season than any returning Power Five player not named Will Anderson. Transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez presents a wild card that could give the Wildcats extreme upside if things go well. Smash that over. Pick: Over 6.5 (-160)


Over/under 9.5 wins

  • Wins: UTEP, Kent State, at Nebraska, at TCU, Kansas, at Iowa State, Baylor, at West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • Losses: Kansas State, Texas, at Texas Tech

Analysis: The Sooners have been a 10-win machine across virtually the entire unified national championship era. Under Lincoln Riley and Bob Stoops, the Sooners have fallen under 10 wins just four times, not counting the Covid-shortened 2020 season. However, Brent Venables is starting from scratch in some ways, which makes projecting Oklahoma more difficult than ever. There are real speed bumps along the way, even if the Sooners can manage tough games against last year’s Big 12 Championship Game participants Baylor and Oklahoma State. At least in 2022, this isn’t an OU squad that’s head and shoulders above the rest. Pick: Under 9.5 (-115)

Oklahoma State

Over/under 9 wins

  • Wins: Central Michigan, Arizona State, UAPB, Texas Tech, at TCU, Texas, at Kansas State, at Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia
  • Losses: at Baylor, at Oklahoma

Analysis: Oklahoma State was the class of the Big 12 until the final play of the Big 12 Championship Game in 2021 and should be back with a vengeance in 2022. While defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State, the Cowboys added veteran SEC assistant Derek Mason in his place. Quarterback Spencer Sanders enters his fourth year as a starter and defensive end Collin Oliver leads what should be a fearsome unit once again. The defense won’t be quite as nationally elite with a handful of departures, but OSU has the juice to get back to the Big 12 title game — maybe even against the same opponent. Pick: Over 9 (+110)


Over/under 9 wins

  • Wins: ULM, UTSA, at Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa State, TCU, at Kansas
  • Losses: Alabama, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, Baylor

Analysis: The Texas hype train has arrived at the station right on time, as the Longhorns are early betting favorites to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2009. Transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers gives the Longhorns one of the most heralded quarterback recruits of all time, while running back Bijan Robinson enters 2022 as a likely Heisman contender. However, the defense didn’t get many reinforcements after a 5-7 season and the offensive line remains a problem area. Pushing the nine-win mark is possible, but there’s actually more value in assuming the under than expecting 10 regular-season wins for the first time since Colt McCoy was in Austin. Pick: Under 9.0 (-125)


Over/under 6.5

  • Wins: at Colorado, Tarleton, at SMU, Texas Tech, Iowa State
  • Losses: Oklahoma, at Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, at West Virginia, at Texas, at Baylor

Analysis: The Horned Frogs are an enigma after hiring a new coach for the first time since Gary Patterson was promoted to the top job 20 years ago. Sonny Dykes completed a miracle turnaround at SMU and led the Mustangs to 10 wins for the first time since 1984 — before the Death Penalty. TCU presents its own challenges in the rough-and-tumble Big 12, though. Transfers will help ease the transition, but Dykes still has to fix a broken defense and a mismanaged offense. His first year will feature some exciting highs, but likely an average finish. Pick: Under 6.5 (+110)

Texas Tech

Over/under 5

  • Wins: Murray State, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma
  • Losses: Houston, at N.C. State, Texas, at Kansas State, at Oklahoma State, Baylor, at TCU, at Iowa State

Analysis: The first year of the Joey McGuire experience at Texas Tech is going to be fun as heck. Results may vary, though, especially with a brutal nonconference schedule that could feature top-10 opponents Houston and NC State followed by Texas to open Big 12 play. Several of the most manageable games are on the road — Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU — while Big 12 favorites Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor all come to town. The Red Raiders will absolutely steal one of those three marquee home games. A win over Oklahoma for the first time since 2011 to finish the year would have Lubbock on fire, even with a 4-8 season. Pick: Under 5 (-135)

West Virginia

Over/under 5.5

  • Wins: Kansas, Towson, at Virginia Tech, Baylor, TCU
  • Losses: at Pitt, at Texas, at Texas Tech, at Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Oklahoma State

Analysis: The Mountaineers put together a masterclass on how to create the worst possible schedule imaginable for a coach on the hot seat. West Virginia plays hated rivals Pitt and Virginia Tech in the nonconference. After the Hokies, the Mountaineers play Texas and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. In November, WVU plays Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State. Maybe transfer QB JT Daniels ends up truly being the savior, but my goodness, any ounce of weakness will doom Neal Brown. Pick: Under 5.5 (-125)

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