Sunday, July 3, 2022

NASCAR Nashville odds, start time, channel: Proven model reveals 2022 Ally 400 picks, race predictions

In his 195th career start in the NASCAR Cup Series, Daniel Suarez grabbed his first victory at Sonoma, and after a bye week, drivers will be back in action on Sunday for the 2022 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. The 1.33-mile oval held its first Cup race last season after years as a host of the NASCAR Xfinity Series and the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Kyle Larson got a dominant win in the 2021 Ally 400, and now he’ll be looking to go back-to-back when the green flag drops at 5 p.m. ET on NBC (stream now on FuboTV).

Larson led 264 of the 300 laps in last year’s race and he’s listed as the 9-2 favorite to repeat in the 2022 Ally 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain are both listed at 7-1 in the NASCAR at Nashville odds, while Chase Elliott (8-1) is the only other driver listed below 10-1. Before scouring the 2022 Ally 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Nashville picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Nashville (see tickets at StubHub) race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Ally 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Ally 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 26-year-old is currently 14th in the NASCAR standings, but with 12 different race winners already this year and five other winless drivers ahead of him in the standings, he’s got some ground to cover to earn his way back into the NASCAR playoffs.

Of course, collecting his first career win would be the easiest way to ensure that he gets into the postseason and Nashville could be a good chance for him to do it. After starting 26th last year because of NASCAR’s qualifying formula, Reddick worked his way up eight spots for an 18th-place finish and at one point had worked his way up to as high as second. Reddick has four top-five finishes already this season and appears to be inching closer to his first career victory.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 Ally 400 lineup. Elliott led 13 laps last season at Nashville Superspeedway and crossed the finish line in 13th place, but was later disqualified in post-race inspection after five loose lug nuts were found.

Elliott enters Sunday sitting first in the NASCAR standings but he hasn’t run particularly well of late. He finished eighth at Sonoma despite entering as the race favorite as the best road racer in the field and was outside the top 20 in each of his three starts prior to that. He’s managed to pile up points by leading laps and winning stages but only has three top-five finishes now in 16 starts this year.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Nashville picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Ally 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Ally 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season

2022 Ally 400 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)

Kyle Larson 9-2

Kyle Busch 7-1

Ross Chastain 7-1

Chase Elliott 8-1

Denny Hamlin 10-1

Joey Logano 10-1

Ryan Blaney 12-1

Martin Truex Jr. 12-1

William Byron 15-1

Tyler Reddick 15-1

Christopher Bell 18-1

Alex Bowman 18-1

Kevin Harvick 20-1

Kurt Busch 25-1

Chase Briscoe 30-1

Daniel Suarez 30-1

Aric Almirola 40-1

Austin Cindric 50-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1

Austin Dillon 60-1

A.J. Allmendinger 75-1

Chris Buescher 75-1

Erik Jones 75-1

Brad Keselowski 75-1

Justin Haley 100-1

Bubba Wallace 100-1

Cole Custer 150-1

Harrison Burton 500-1

Ty Dillon 500-1

Michael McDowell 500-1

Todd Gilliland 750-1

Corey LaJoie 2000-1

Cody Ware 2500-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1

BJ McLeod 5000-1

J.J. Yeley 5000-1  

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