Monday, August 15, 2022

2022 Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers: Tier 5 split between upside of Justin Fields and floor of Derek Carr


Tiers are better than rankings. I believe that’s one of the few statements the Fantasy Football industry has come to an agreement on. But, don’t worry, we still have plenty of disagreement about the best way to put together tiers. 

When I publish my Dynasty Quarterback Tiers, I focus strictly on players I value similarly, but I find the archetype tier model espoused by Rich Hribar very appealing as well. Redraft tiers may seem more simple, but in truth it only adds another option. I can now tier by projections, rankings, or archetype. Consider what you see below a bit of a mix. Early on it’s mostly projections and/or rankings based but when we got to Tier 5 a clear break was needed.

Once you get past the first four tiers you come to a fork in the road. In one direction is the upside of Justin Fields and Trey Lance. In their second years in the NFL they will get every opportunity to have a Jalen Hurts-like impact. But there are enough concerns that it’s hard to trust them as your only quarterback in a one-quarterback league and their lack of floor is even more frightening when you must start two quarterbacks.

In the other direction is the security of Derek Carr. He has been a solid QB2 for most of his career and now he’s added Davante Adams, so there’s good reason to believe he could jump into the top 12 in 2022. Still, it’s very difficult to envision a top-five season from Carr. In a vacuum, my past advice has been to eschew floor in this situation and shoot for the stars. But as Chris Towers recently pointed out, it’s getting more difficult to stream quarterback. That reality makes Carr’s floor more appealing than it’s been in the past.

If you do still want to wait on quarterback, that’s OK. I would just suggest drafting a quarterback from each of the Tier 5s below.

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A quick note on the other guys included in these (half) tiers: 

  • Deshaun Watson is a top-five quarterback if he plays, but you can’t draft him like that. 
  • Neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Trevor Lawrence feel as likely to hit their ceilings as Fields and Lance, but their pedigrees and the recent changes to their situations give them more upside than their ADP suggests.
  • Including Winston and Wentz in a floor tier may be surprising. But they both outscored Carr per game last year and both saw huge improvements in their surroundings as well. At the very least they’re big values in two-QB leagues.

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