Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Red Sox vs. Yankees will be a surprisingly low scoring affair in The Bronx tonight

We saw Tiger Woods play his final round at St. Andrews Friday, at least, in a professional tournament. Woods followed up his 6-over performance on Thursday with a 3-over performance today, leaving him 9-over for the tournament and far away from the cut line. While it won’t be surprising to see Woods playing in an Open Championship again in the coming years, by the time it returns to St. Andrews, it’ll be long past Tiger’s ability to compete.

Woods admitted so himself after finishing the round via his Twitter account.

Still, while Woods is out of the running, plenty of other golfers aren’t! You can catch up with everything you’ve missed by following our tracker, and when you’re done with that, you can catch up on everything else happening today by reading these stories.

All right, let’s finish the week strong with some winners.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Red Sox at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB Network

Latest Odds: Under 8

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  • Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Pick: Under 8 (-110)

Last week’s series between these teams saw the over hit in all four games. There was an average of 14 runs scored per game, with no fewer than 11 scored in any of them. So, obviously, we’re taking the under now that the series has moved to Yankee Stadium. A notoriously pitcher-friendly park!

Seriously, I know it seems counterintuitive, but would you believe it if I told you that Yankee Stadium genuinely was more pitcher-friendly than hitter? It is. While the short porches down the lines boost its overall home run power, it’s below-average for every other offensive metric. It ranks as the 22nd most hitter-friendly park in baseball according to StatCast’s Park Factors. But that’s not why we’re taking the under tonight, even if it doesn’t hurt.

Jonathan Coachman is joined by Mike McClure, Larry Hartstein, Allie O’Neill and Andrew Gombas to bring you the best bets for Friday. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.  

Last weekend’s series in Boston was played in a far more hitter-friendly park and in weather conditions that tilted things even further to the bats. Tonight’s weather in the Bronx won’t have much of an impact. Instead, I’m looking at a pitching matchup that will keep the offense down more often than not.

Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi has an above-average strikeout rate and an elite walk rate for a starter. While Eovaldi allows hard contact, he pairs it with an above-average groundball rate. The concern is that the flyballs he allows tend to go far, which will be a risk against this Yankees offense. For the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery doesn’t post nearly the strikeout totals Eovaldi does, but like Eovaldi, he has excellent control and an even better groundball rate.

Make no mistake, we’re still dealing with two offenses capable of putting up runs in a hurry, but the value tonight is on the under.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model does not agree with me on the total, but it does see some value on one side of the money line.

💰The Picks


Robbie Ray Getty Seattle Mariners

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Mariners at Rangers, 8:05 p.m | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Texas Rangers +135

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The Pick: Rangers (+135) — The Seattle Mariners are the hottest team in baseball. They’ve won 11 straight games, which isn’t enough to get them in the AL West race but has launched them into the Wild Card battle. Still, even if Seattle has won 11 in a row, I will make a bold prediction. The Mariners will lose a game someday. Maybe even tonight. In fact, I think the Mariners lose more often tonight than the price on them or the Rangers suggests.

I’m always hesitant to back Robbie Ray as a favorite because he walks too many hitters and allows too many home runs, and this isn’t a great matchup for him tonight. The Rangers come into the evening as the second-best offense in baseball against lefties with a wRC+ of 121. Their home run rate of 4.63% ranks second behind only the Yankees. Ray is a lefty who allows too many home runs. You don’t have to be a genius to see how this could backfire for Seattle tonight.

Key Trend: The Rangers have won nine of their last 12 against lefty starters.

White Sox at Twins, 8:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Chicago White Sox +118

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The Pick: White Sox (+118) — I mentioned in the last pick that the Rangers have the second-best offense in baseball against lefties. Well, the team they trail is the White Sox. The Sox have a wRC+ of 129 against lefties, and while they don’t hit homers at the rate the Rangers do, they have the highest wOBA (.348) against southpaws as well. Tonight they’re facing Minnesota’s Devin Smeltzer. Smeltzer’s strikeout rate of 15% is well below league average, and he allows dingers at an alarming rate.

Smeltzer faced the Rangers in his last start and allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings before he was pulled. The Twins are also in a bad spot because Sonny Gray had to leave Thursday’s game earlier than expected after taking a line drive off his pitching arm. That left the Twins bullpen to cover 5.1 innings last night, allowing six runs to this same White Sox lineup. Minnesota should be able to get some runs of its own against Chicago starter Michael Kopech, but they won’t score enough, often enough, to pass up the White Sox at this price.

Key Trend: The White Sox offense has a wRC+ of 129 against lefties, the best mark in baseball by far.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s prop superstar Alex Selesnick has listed his favorite prop bets for Friday night’s MLB slate.

 ⚾ Friday Night Dinger Party

Manny Machado Getty San Diego Padres

Getty Images

We’re betting the following hitters to go deep tonight.

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