Sunday, August 14, 2022

Marlins vs. Reds odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, July 28 best bets from proven model

The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds match up on Thursday afternoon. The contest takes place in a matinee setting at Great American Ball Park. The National League rivals wrap up a four-game series with the Reds winning two of the first three games. Cincinnati is 38-59, with Miami entering at 46-52. Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) is on the mound for Cincinnati, while Miami has yet to announce a starter. 

First pitch is at 12:35 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists Cincinnati as a -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 9.5 in the latest Marlins vs. Reds odds. Before making any Reds vs. Marlins picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 284-243 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Marlins vs. Reds and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Reds vs. Marlins:

  • Marlins vs. Reds money line: Reds -135, Marlins +115
  • Marlins vs. Reds over-under: 9.5 runs
  • Marlins vs. Reds run line: Reds -1.5 (+143)
  • MIA: The Marlins are 19-21 in day games
  • CIN: The Reds are 16-23 in day games
  • Marlins vs. Reds picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins

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Why you should back the Marlins

Miami’s team speed sets an impressive tone. The Marlins lead the National League in stolen bases, and Miami is fully capable of putting pressure on Cincinnati by taking the extra base. Miami’s offense is also buoyed in this matchup but a struggling Reds bullpen. Cincinnati’s corps of relievers is last in the National League with an ERA over 5.00 this season, and the Reds also rank last in the NL in wins above replacement from relief pitchers. 

Cincinnati’s bullpen has a combined ground ball rate below 40 percent with more than four walks per nine innings. On the run prevention side, Miami should also benefit from Cincinnati’s struggles, as the Reds have floundered on offense in 2022. Cincinnati currently ranks in the bottom five of the National League in hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season.

Why you should back the Reds

Cincinnati has multiple paths to overall success on Thursday, but perhaps the clearest avenue is through the arm of Ashcraft. The 24-year-old right-hander is enjoying a strong season in multiple ways. Ashcraft is issuing only 2.3 walks per nine innings and holding opponents to only 0.9 home runs per nine innings this season. 

Left-handers are notably struggling against Ashcraft to the tune of a .517 OPS in 2022, and Ashcraft has fared well at home. Ashcraft owns a 3.34 ERA in starts at Great American Ball Park, and he is facing a Miami offense without a great deal of overall punch. The Marlins are near the bottom of the National League in runs scored, doubles, walks, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

How to make Reds vs. Marlins picks

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