Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Cubs have surprisingly big pitching advantage over Nationals, plus other best bets for Tuesday

Good afternoon everyone, it’s Chris Bengel back with you on this beautiful Tuesday. 

We’re entering one of the most competitive times of the year in Major League Baseball. Playoff races are getting intense with some teams rising to the occasion and some teams absolutely floundering. One of those struggling teams is the Yankees (much to the dismay of the editor of this newsletter, Nick Parco). It’s insane how bad the Yankees have been post All-Star break.

This is a team that has lost 10 of its last 12 games while scoring three or fewer runs in each of their last six games. As someone who perhaps foolishly put in a futures bet on the Yankees to win the World Series, I’m panicking to say the least (they still own a healthy 10 game lead in the AL East, though).

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Anyway, enough harping on the Yankees’ struggles. I’ve got some picks for Tuesday’s MLB action, so let’s not waste any more time.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Cubs at Nationals, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Chicago Cubs -160

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  • Key Trend: The Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • The Pick: Cubs (-170) 

The Nationals have been the worst team in baseball this season with just 39 wins. A positive, though (for us at least)? There’s quite a few games in which betting against Washington is going to make you money. This is definitely one of them.

Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that the Cubs are world beaters. They are 20 games under the .500 mark. Still, Tuesday’s pitching matchup favors the Cubs. The Nationals will be sending veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound in this one. In his four seasons with the Nationals, Corbin has a 29-46 record to go along with a 4.98 ERA. The 2022 season has been even worse as he carries a 7.02 ERA into Tuesday’s start. 

On the other hand, the Cubs will have left-hander Justin Steele on the bump. While Steele has a less-than-ideal 4-7 record on the season, he’s been throwing the ball extremely well as of late. The 27-year-old hurler has only yielded a grand total of six earned runs across his last five starts. In addition, Steele has given up one run or less in five of his last seven outings. Combine that with the fact that the Cubs have won three of their last five games and I believe this should be an easy victory for Chicago in this spot.

💰 The Picks




Rockies at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Over 7.5

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The Pick: Over 7.5 (-125)I’m surprised this total isn’t a little higher. When the over/under is around the 7.5-8.5 mark, it’s usually because the pitching matchup is a very strong one. That’s simply not the case with Kyle Freeland toeing the rubber for the Rockies and Jose Quintana getting the nod for the Cardinals.

These two teams faced off last week and there were plenty of runs being scored. In each of the contests during the three-game series, there were at least 14 runs scored in each of those games. In fact, neither team scored fewer than five runs in any of those three games.

The Cardinals rank among the top 10 in several offensive categories, including batting average, home runs, RBIs, hits, and runs. It’s also worth noting that the over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last seven games. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland owns a 4.84 ERA on the season and has surrendered five or more runs in three of his last six outings. Freeland’s last start came last Wednesday against the Cardinals and he yielded six earned runs on 10 hits in just 4 1/3 innings in a 9-5 defeat.

Key Trend: The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last four games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

Padres at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) —
 It certainly hasn’t been an ideal season for Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. He recently returned after missing nearly two months due to an elbow injury. However, since returning to the mound, the Marlins starter has been quite good.

In 10 2/3 innings back, Cabrera has yielded zero runs on just three hits in starts against the Cubs and Phillies. In his most recent outing, Cabrera surrendered just three hits over 5 2/3 innings while striking out six batters against the Phillies.He has recorded at least six strikeouts in those two outings while also registering at least six strikeouts in three of his five starts on the season. Cabrera is capable of having electric stuff at times Five strikeouts is a fairly low bar to clear and Cabrera should be able to get it done even against a solid lineup. 

Key Trend: Cabrera has registered at least six strikeouts in three of his five starts this season

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