Thursday, October 6, 2022

2022 NASCAR playoffs at Bristol odds, predictions: Model fades Chase Elliott at Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Kyle Larson has been dominant at Bristol Motor Speedway in recent years, and when NASCAR returns to the track Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET for the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, he’ll have added motivation to continue his success. Larson enters the weekend eighth in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings with one race to go until the playoff field is cut to 12. He comes into this race at 13-2 in the latest 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook. Larson won last year’s event, and has a pair of second-place showings as well as a sixth-place performance in three of his four races there prior to 2021. 

Other 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race contenders near the top of the playoff field that could also lead your NASCAR at Bristol best bets include favorite Denny Hamlin (11-2), Chase Elliott (15-2) and playoff points leader Christopher Bell (8-1). Before scouring the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Bristol picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Bristol race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Bristol predictions

For the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he is a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds. Logano has finished outside of the top 10 in two of his last three races, which makes him a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. However, in five of his last seven races, he has finished in sixth place or better.

Earlier this season at Bristol in the Food City Dirt Race, Logano finished in third after starting in 10th. In his last two races at Bristol, he took back-to-back 11th place finishes, and finished seventh in the 2020 NASCAR All-Star Race that was also held there. Logano is fourth in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings, but is just 18 playoff points behind leader Bell, so he should be looking to do more than stay in the hunt and make a charge for the top on Sunday. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion won four races this year to lead all drivers but he’s currently seventh in the 2022 NASCAR standings after a pair of disappointing runs to start the postseason.

Elliott finished 36th with a DVP at Darlington and then finished 11th last week in Kansas. He’s never won in 11 career Cup starts on the asphalt at Bristol Motor Speedway and has finished outside the top 20 in two of his last three starts on the iconic track. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Bristol picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Bass Pro Shops Night Race 2022? And which longshots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest Bristol Night Race odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season

2022 Bristol Night Race odds, field

See full NASCAR Bristol picks, best bets, and predictions here

Denny Hamlin 11-2

Kyle Larson 13-2

Chase Elliott 15-2

Christopher Bell 8-1

Kyle Busch 8-1

Kevin Harvick 17-2

Tyler Reddick 10-1

Ross Chastain 14-1

Joey Logano 14-1

Ryan Blaney 14-1

Martin Truex Jr. 15-1

William Byron 15-1

Bubba Wallace 17-1

Alex Bowman 28-1

Ty Gibbs 40-1

Daniel Suarez 40-1

Chase Briscoe 40-1

Erik Jones 50-1

Austin Dillon 60-1

Austin Cindric 60-1

Aric Almirola 75-1

Ricky Stenhouse 100-1

Brad Keselowski 100-1

Chris Buescher 125-1

AJ Allmendinger 125-1

Michael McDowell 200-1

Cole Custer 300-1

Justin Haley 500-1

Ty Dillon 750-1

Harrison Burton 1000-1

Corey Lajoie 2500-1

Todd Gilliland 2500-1

JJ Yeley 2500-1

BJ McLeod 5000-1

Cody Ware 5000-1

Jos Bilicki 5000-1

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