Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Aaron Judge has 60 home runs, but he can’t actually make a run at Barry Bonds’ MLB record of 73… right?

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Now that Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has 60 home runs, he looks pretty likely to set the single-season American League homer record in the coming days. He’s just one away from tying Roger Maris’ 61 and one more from sole possession of the record. Then, all the predictions and projections and hand-wringing can stop. He’ll have done it. That will be that. 

Wait. 

Maybe, just maybe, there is something else. Dare we dream? Dare we?!?!!?

The Yankees have 15 games left in the season. Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record is 73. Aaron Judge has 60 home runs. 

The chances here are incredibly slim, but, well, you know the line. Judge certainly has better chances than one in a million, after all, to make a run and catch Bonds.

Judge has 11 multi-homer games this season. Two of those have come since Sept. 13. Here are some of the most bunched-up runs of homers for him this season: 

  • From April 22-May 3, he hit eight home runs in 10 games.
  • If we extend that to May 17, Judge homered 13 times in 21 games. 
  • From July 14-30, he clubbed 12 home runs in 14 games. 
  • From Aug. 22-Sept. 7, he hit nine in 14 games. 

If he has another run like that in him, it’s going to start to get really serious. Another 12 in 14 games would get him to 72 with the final game of the season remaining. Wouldn’t that be something? 

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Judge has actually hit 27 home runs in 54 second-half games, which is mathematically one every two games. If he maintains that pace and keeps playing everyday, he’d end up with 67 or 68. 

Remaining on the schedule for the Yankees are eight home games and seven road contests. Judge has an even 30 homers both at home and on the road, but it might interest fans to know that the Yankees’ two road series come in homer-friendly ballparks. They play three in Toronto (which ranks third in HR this season among the 30 home ballparks) and four in Texas (which ranks fourth in home run park factor). 

For now, 60 is pretty damn cool. Seeing 61 and then 62 will be amazing. But I can’t shake the dream that Judge might make a run at 73 and/or 74. The chances are tiny, but they aren’t nil. 

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