Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Prisco’s Week 3 picks, plus QB Power Rankings and looking at which 0-2 teams are still contenders

Happy Wednesday, all. John Breech is taking the day to meditate ahead of a potential 0-3 start for his beloved Bengals, so you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We’ve got betting trends, Week 3 picks, new QB rankings, and much more:

  1. Today’s show: Week 3 betting trends, predictions, fun facts

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Russell Wilson USATSI

Tyler Sullivan and John Breech joined Will Brinson on Wednesday’s “Pick Six NFL Podcast” to assess the Week 3 slate from a betting perspective, identifying the best and most questionable point spreads while previewing and predicting their favorite matchups. Some highlights:

  • Sully foresees an 0-3 start for the Colts, who host the Chiefs this Sunday. “Kansas City didn’t play particularly great football in Week 2,” he noted, but they still beat the Chargers. He also doesn’t expect Patrick Mahomes to have many back-to-back so-so performances, predicting No. 15 and the Chiefs, who are favored by 6.5, will “light it up” against Indy.
  • Brinson is leaning Steelers (+5) on “Thursday Night Football” against the Browns, mostly because the AFC North matchup could be really ugly. “You’re not ever sweating this total (38.5), either. Both teams are pretty conservative, the Browns love to run the ball, it’s a short week.” Not only that, but there are strong winds forecast, setting up a low-scoring affair.
  • Breech likes the Broncos to rebound Sunday night against the 49ers, even with Jimmy Garoppolo seemingly boosting confidence in San Francisco’s offense. “Home underdogs in prime time? Sign me up right now,” he said. “I think the Broncos offense can only get better from here … and Russell Wilson is 17-4 against the 49ers in his career.”

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Prisco’s Picks: Bills cruise past Dolphins, Patriots halt Ravens

Pete Prisco went 10-6 picking games in Week 2, and he’s up to 8-3 on the season with his best bets on the “Pick Six NFL Podcast.” Now, he’s back with predictions for every Week 3 matchup. Here’s a sampling:

  • Bills 30, Dolphins 20: This is one of the best games of the week, featuring two 2-0 teams that can score. The Bills are playing on the road on a short week, which is an advantage for Miami. But this Buffalo team is riding high. The Dolphins defense wasn’t good last week. The Bills defense has been. That’s the difference.
  • Patriots 27, Ravens 26: The Ravens melted down in their loss to the Dolphins last week. The defense was terrible. But the Patriots haven’t done much on offense this season. This is their home opener, so I think they will get it going.
  • Packers 21, Buccaneers 20: This is likely the last Aaron Rodgers-Tom Brady game unless they meet in the playoffs. The Tampa Bay offense isn’t playing well with a lot of injuries, and this will be a tough game to try to get it going. But the Bucs defense has been really good. This should be a low-scoring game with the Packers pulling off an upset late.

3. QB Power Rankings: Murray enters top 10; Hurts comes close

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CBS Sports illustration (Keytron Jordan)

Every week during the season, we rank all 32 starting quarterbacks from first to worst. This week saw some of the game’s top dual-threats dominate the list, with Kyler Murray vaulting into the top 10 after willing Arizona to an overtime win and Jalen Hurts approaching the top 10 thanks to a dominant Monday night rout of the Vikings. Here’s a sneak peek at the latest top 10:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Josh Allen (+2)
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Tom Brady (-2)
  5. Justin Herbert
  6. Lamar Jackson
  7. Joe Burrow
  8. Matthew Stafford (+2)
  9. Kyler Murray (+2)
  10. Russell Wilson (-2)

Catch the full 1-32 rundown right here.

4. Which 0-2 teams can get back on track?

Five different teams are winless after two weeks of football. But not all of them should be counted out just yet, says Jeff Kerr, who identified which of the 0-2 clubs are best suited to return to form. One of his favorites: the reigning AFC champions.

The Bengals have lost both their games by a game-winning field goal, rallying back from double-digit second-half deficits in both losses. Fast starts would help Cincinnati avoid these heartbreaking scenarios. … A bigger concern for Cincinnati is an offensive line that has allowed 13 sacks in two games against two very good defenses. … Joe Burrow is also guilty for holding the ball too long, and the Bengals coaching staff needs to get the short passing game going. … They don’t have an easy schedule, but this is a talented enough roster to get back in the mix, especially in a wide-open AFC North. 

5. Rodgers unveils Packers’ plans: Keep feeding the backs

NFL: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones USATSI

Wondering how Green Bay can sustain offensive success despite inconsistent results from a post-Davante Adams receiving corps? Aaron Rodgers laid out the formula in advance of Week 3 against the Buccaneers, and it involves more heavy doses of the Aaron Jones-AJ Dillon duo: “The goal is to get 33 and 28 the ball,” the reigning MVP told Pat McAfee. “It’d be nice to get them a number of touches, you know, (in) the 15 range, at least, for each of them.” Both backs were busy in the Packers’ recent rout of the Bears, with Jones totaling 170 yards and two scores.

6. Rapid-fire roundup: AFC North updates, HOF nominees

Hungry for more headlines? Here’s a couple to close us out:

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