NFL Week 4 early odds: Packers jump out as massive favorites vs. Patriots; Chiefs road favorites at Bucs

It was a good weekend to be a ‘dog in the NFL. While most of the betting world had both the Bills and Chiefs pulling out wins and covering their Week 3 matchups, the AFC juggernauts not only failed to cover but lost outright to the Dolphins and Colts, respectively. Even as the line dipped dramatically in Chargers-Jaguars due to Justin Herbert’s injury, Jacksonville smoked L.A. on the road to pull out the win as well. 

Now, we’ll have to see if the Dallas Cowboys can be the latest ‘dog to pull out a win as they take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium for “Monday Night Football” to wrap up Week 3. 

As we wait for that game to kick off, it’s never too early to take a look at what’s to come in Week 4. Below, we’ll take our first glimpse of these matchups and get our impression of the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top. 

Week 4 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Dolphins (3-0) at Bengals (1-2), Thursday

Opening line: Bengals -4

This line opened at Bengals -4 back in the spring but has more recently moved towards the Dolphins as they have come out to a surprising 3-0 start that includes a win at home against Buffalo. Heading into Week 3, this line fell to Bengals -1.5 but has begun to rebound, and it’s at Bengals -3 as of Monday morning. At one point late Sunday, you could have even landed Dolphins +2.5 at +105. Now, either side of the line is -110. 

This season, Miami is 3-0 ATS and has an ATS plus/minus of +7.7. The Bengals were able to notch their first win of the season against the Jets in Week 3 and will now head back to Cincinnati where they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  

Vikings (2-1) at Saints (1-2)

Opening line: PK

This was a pick’em back in the spring and held throughout the summer. After Week 2, Minnesota jumped out as a 1-point favorite and that has continued to grow. Following Week 3, the Vikings were a 3-point favorite over New Orleans but that has since dipped back down to Vikings -2.5. Minnesota rallied late to beat the Lions at home as Kirk Cousins hit K.J. Osborn on a 28-yard touchdown with just 45 seconds left in regulation and down by three. Meanwhile, New Orleans was shut out for the first three quarters against Carolina and fell to their NFC South rival, 22-14. 

New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season, but Minnesota hasn’t fared too much better as they hold a 1-2 ATS mark coming out of Week 3. 

It’s important to note that this game will be played on a neutral site with this game kicking off in London on Sunday. 

Browns (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)

Opening line: Browns -2.5

The Browns moved to a 3-point favorite last Wednesday and largely stayed in that range through Sunday’s action. On Monday, however, things have started to shift towards Atlanta as the Browns are now a 2.5-point road favorite at +100. The Falcons have been extremely friendly to bettors this season, boasting a 3-0 ATS record, and just won outright against the Seahawks in Seattle. Cleveland has also been a strong bet to begin the year at 2-1 ATS and is coming into this game on extended rest after playing last Thursday. It is worth noting, however, that the Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. 

Bills (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)

Opening line: Bills -2

Buffalo was a 2-point favorite back in the spring when the schedule was first released and shifted to a 4-point favorite heading into Week 3. That began to dip a bit in reaction to the Bills’ loss against the Dolphins and Baltimore’s win over New England on Sunday night, when the Bills dipped down to a 3-point road favorite. 

It was a strange loss for Buffalo down in Miami as they dominated in most statistical categories, but stumbled a bit in the second half, which opened the door for the Dolphins. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson looks like he’s putting together a pretty special season with a five-total touchdown performance in Foxborough. 

Both of these teams are 2-1 ATS on the young season, but the Bills could be the early lean here. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss. As for Baltimore, they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS win. 

Commanders (1-2) at Cowboys (1-1)

Opening line: Cowboys -6

This line opened at Cowboys -6 back in May, but plenty has changed between then and now. First, quarterback Dak Prescott has been sidelined due to a thumb injury and it’ll likely be Cooper Rush under center for Dallas. While there may be more movement following the Cowboys’ Monday night matchup against New York, they were a 2.5-point favorite in the lookahead line last week and have since bumped up to a 3-point favorite on Sunday night. 

The Commanders are coming off a blowout loss to the Eagles in Week 3 where they managed just eight points and Carson Wentz was sacked nine times. Washington is also 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. 

Seahawks (1-2) at Lions (1-2)

Opening line: Lions -1

Detroit has grown to a 6.5-point favorite against Seattle after initially opening as a slim 1-point home favorite in the spring. That 6.5-point spread is a full-point increase from when the Lions were -5.5 in the lookahead last week. They are coming off a last-second loss to the Vikings, but overall played well and have continued to keep teams close, owning a 3-0 ATS record. That said, the status of D’Andre Swift will be worth monitoring this week after he left Week 3 due to injury. As for the Seahawks, they just fell to the Falcons and are 1-2 ATS on the season. Historically, they haven’t played particularly well away from Lumen Field, owning a 5-11 ATS record in their last 16 road games.  

Chargers (1-2) at Texans (0-2-1)

Opening line: Chargers -8.5

L.A. was a 7-point favorite on the lookahead last week after sitting as an 8.5-point road favorite back in May. While the Texans don’t typically strike fear into their opponents, the main cause for this line now sitting at Chargers -6.5 is the status of Justin Herbert. Despite being able to play, Herbert and his injured rib didn’t look particularly sharp and the Chargers were blown out at home by the Jaguars. Not only is Herbert dinged up, but pass rusher Joey Bosa and left tackle Rashawn Slater both suffered injuries in the loss. 

Houston is 2-0-1 ATS this season and is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the AFC. 

Titans (1-2) at Colts (1-1-1)

Opening line: Colts -3

Indy went as high as -4 before the season for this matchup and the lookahead last Wednesday was sitting at Colts -3.5. Since then and following the events of Week 3, it has jockeyed around between 3.5 and 3 on Monday morning. Indianapolis is coming off a win over the Chiefs at home, while Tennessee also pulled out a win over the Raiders. Both of these AFC South rivals are under .500 ATS this season, but the Titans have owned this matchup as of late. Over their last five meetings, Tennessee is 4-1 ATS. For what it’s worth, the road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Bears (2-1) at Giants (2-0)

Opening line: Giants -3

Not much change here at all between when the line opened in the spring until now. There was a point on Sunday night where you could have laid the points with New York at +100, but now it’s -110 on both sides of the line. Of course, more movement could come following the Giants’ matchup with the Cowboys on Monday night, but for now, it’s a pretty standard home-field line. Chicago pulled out a home win over the Texans in Week 3 but did fail to cover and are now 1-1-1 ATS on the year. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. 

Jaguars (2-1) at Eagles (3-0)

Opening line: Eagles -6.5

Philadelphia looks like a team that could legitimately contend for the top seed in the NFC. They are 3-0 to begin the year and are coming off a thrashing of the Commanders where their defense recorded nine sacks. While many predicted that the Eagles could be a threat coming into the year, fewer people pointed to the Jaguars as an AFC South contender but they’ve come out of the gate strong. Jacksonville is fresh off a blowout win over the Chargers and could very well be a surprise team in the AFC playoff race. 

Both of these clubs are 2-1 ATS coming into Week 4 and this line has stayed relatively the same with it standing at Eagles -6.5 on Monday morning. Philadelphia is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home games.

Jets (1-2) at Steelers (1-2)

Opening line: Steelers -4

Pittsburgh was a 4-point favorite when the lines were released in the spring and dipped down to a 3.5-point favorite when the lookahead line dropped last week. However, there has been some jockeying with this line between 3.5 and 4 and it’s possible that could continue to begin the week. The main storyline for this game is the potential return of Jets quarterback Zach Wilson after he missed the start of the season due to a knee injury he suffered in the preseason. Meanwhile, Mitch Trubisky has started to struggle with the Steelers, which has the drum for first-round rookie Kenny Pickett beating louder by the day. 

The Steelers are 1-1-1 ATS this season but have played well at home under Mike Tomlin. Since he was named head coach in 2007, Pittsburgh has covered 54.8% of its home games, which is the fifth-best mark in the NFL over that stretch. 

Cardinals (1-2) at Panthers (1-2)

Opening line: Cardinals -3

We’ve seen a flip in the odds here. After Arizona was a 3-point road favorite in the spring, the tides have turned in favor of the Panthers, who are now a 1-point favorite as of Monday morning. In the lookahead, the Cardinals advantage was noticeably slipping as they fell to -2.5 and after Week 3 it shifted fully towards the Panthers. 

Despite a 1-2 record, the Panthers have been a tough out and were able to pull off an impressive win against the Saints on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have continued to be a bit underwhelming and the offense managed just four field goals against the Rams. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, but the Panthers haven’t been spectacular either as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up win. 

Patriots (1-2) at Packers (2-1)

Opening line: Packers -5.5

This was a modest Packers -5.5 back in May but it has ballooned up dramatically. in the lookahead, this line only jumped a point to Packers -6.5, but following Mac Jones‘ ankle injury in Week 3, it leaped up to Packers -11 on Monday morning. If Jones misses this game, it would be Brian Hoyer leading the Patriots into Lambeau Field. Even with Jones, the Patriots haven’t been a team worth betting on as they are just one of three teams in the NFL without an ATS win, sitting at 0-2-1 ATS coming out of Week 3. As for the Packers, they are 2-1 ATS this season and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. 

Broncos (2-1) at Raiders (0-3)

Opening line: PK

This was a pick’em back in in the spring and in early September, but things have shifted towards the Raiders. Now, they are a 2-point home favorite against the Broncos in an AFC West head-to-head. Thus far, both clubs have been underwhelming and have failed to live up to the preseason expectations. While Denver has two wins under its belt, the offense continues to lack the explosiveness that many expected they’d have with Russell Wilson under center. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 0-3 to kick off the Josh McDaniels era and could be looking at a must-win situation, despite only being in Week 4. 

Combined, these teams are 1-5 ATS this season. 

Chiefs (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)

Opening line: Buccaneers -2

In the lookahead, this line swung in favor of the Chiefs, who were a 1.5-point road favorite. That has continued to move up and is now -3 against Tampa Bay as of Monday morning. This could be for several reasons, including a banged-up Buccaneers receiving unit and the possibility that this game gets moved due to a hurricane set to hit the Tampa area. If this game moves to a neutral site, that could move this line even more. The Buccaneers — who fell to the Packers in Week 3 — have responded well to losses as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  

Rams (2-1) at 49ers (1-2), Monday

Opening line: PK

This was a pick’em in the spring but San Francisco did eventually move out as a 1-point favorite in the lookahead line last Wednesday. Currently, they are a 2-point favorite against Los Angeles, who just handled the Cardinals on the road. The 49ers have had the Rams’ number as of late as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. In San Francisco, the Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips.