Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Bengals vs. Dolphins odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions by advanced model

The Miami Dolphins will try to stay perfect on the season when they visit the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins (3-0) held off a furious rally by the Buffalo Bills last Sunday to register a 21-19 victory. The Bengals (1-2) dominated the New York Jets 27-12 to win their first game of the season in Week 3. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings against the Bengals, including a 19-7 triumph in 2020. Miami leads the all-time series 17-7, including five wins in the last seven meetings.

Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Bengals vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 47. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals and just locked in its picks and TND predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bengals:

  • Bengals vs. Dolphins spread: Cincinnati -3.5 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under: 47 points 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins +158, Bengals -190 
  • MIA: Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games 
  • CIN: Bengals have covered seven straight games against teams with winning records 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

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Why the Bengals can cover

Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 275 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3. He has enjoyed success under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football, passing for 664 yards and five touchdowns in two career TNF starts. He has also played well at home, throwing for 4,467 yards (319.1 per game) and 30 touchdowns (26 pass, four rushing) in 14 career home starts. He will be looking for his fifth home game in a row with two or more touchdown passes and his sixth in a row at home with 300 or more passing yards.

Also playing well at home is running back Joe Mixon. He has 13 total touchdowns in his past 12 games at home. Mixon had 115 scrimmage yards, including 93 rushing, and a touchdown catch in his last home meeting against Miami. For the season, Mixon has carried 58 times for 163 yards (2.8 average) and five first-down conversions with one explosive play of 31 yards.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Despite that, the Bengals are not a lock to cover the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread. That’s because of the play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He passed for 296 yards with one touchdown in the teams’ last meeting against Cincinnati and ranks second in the NFL this season in passing yards with 925. Tagovailoa is also tied for third in touchdown passes with eight. He will be looking for his third start in a row with a completion percentage of 70 or higher and a passer rating of 120 or higher, assuming he suits up after an injury last Sunday.

Wide receivers Jaylen Waddle (342 receiving yards) and Tyreek Hill (317) rank second and third, respectively, in receiving yards this season. Last week, Waddle recorded four receptions and his third-career game with at least 100 receiving yards. He has 123 receptions in 19 career games, second-most by a player in his first 20 career games in NFL history. Hill registered seven receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown in his last game against the Bengals and has receiving touchdowns in six of his seven career games on Thursday Night Football.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, calling for 47 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.

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