Good afternoon gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back in the saddle. Are you recovered from some of the horrifically bad beats that the NFL slate had to offer over the weekend? It’s been brutal out there this season.
Personally, I had a nice payday lined up if it weren’t for the Chiefs struggling to score against the Colts. I figured the 5.5-point spread was fine and that Patrick Mahomes and company would easily be good for a touchdown advantage when the clock hit zeroes. But I suppose that’s why they play the games.
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Let’s forget about the gridiron for a few days and get to Tuesday’s baseball picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Latest Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -105
- Key Trend: Brewers are 16-6 in their last 22 home games against a right-handed starter
- The Pick: Brewers (-105)
The Brewers are in the thick of the National League Wild Card. With the Cardinals being entrenched as the likely NL Central division champions, I’m siding with the Brewers to come out on top in this spot.
Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser has had about as tough of a two-game stretch as one could. He most recently faced the Yankees and Mets and struggled both times. However, the right-hander has pitched well in recent weeks. Over his last four starts, Houser has surrendered six earned runs and four of those came against the Yankees. If you take out that subpar Yankees outing, Houser has allowed just two earned runs on six hits despite not registering high strikeout numbers.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Brewers have won six of their last eight games against NL Central opponents. On the other hand, the Cardinals have dropped the opening game of five of their last six series. I’m confident that the Brewers can get into the win column in this one.
💰 More MLB picks
Latest Odds: Over 7
The Pick: Over 7.0 runs (+105): — I know what you’re going to say. Betting on a Reds/Pirates game in September just sounds disgusting. ‘m not going to disagree with you. However, there’s nothing repulsive about cashing winning betslips.
When you have two of the worst teams in the majors, there’s a strong possibility that there will be plenty of runs scored. After all, the Reds have the third-worst ERA (4.84) in the majors while the Pirates possess the fifth-worst (4.70). In addition, the over is 5-2 in the Pirates’ last seven games when the total is set between 7.0-8.5. The Pirates have also scored at least five runs in three of their last four games, so the bats have come alive of late.
Sure, young arms Hunter Greene and Mitch Keller have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the 2022 season, but these are two pitchers who possess inflated ERAs. I think eight runs between these two teams is an easily attainable number.
Key Trend: The over is 5-0 in the Pirates’ last five games against a team with a winning percentage below .400
Athletics at Angels, 9:38 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Patrick Sandoval Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110): — Obviously, Tuesday’s matchup between the Athletics and Angels isn’t one that has many fans’ attention, given that both have been out of the playoff race for quite a while. Still, I have no problem going back to the well when it comes to the under strikeout props in this one.
Despite his 6-9 record, Patrick Sandoval has put together a strong season for the Angels. He’s also tallied an impressive 3.01 ERA and 141 strikeouts. Still, he’s not the type of starter that is going to mow down every hitter that steps into the batter’s box. In six of his last 10 starts, Sandoval has registered five or fewer strikeouts. In fact, he’s only recorded at least six strikeouts in 11 of his 25 starts all season. He’s tallied fewer than five strikeouts in two of his last three outings, so I’m banking on that trend holding true this time around as well.
Key Trend: Sandoval has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in six of his last 10 starts