Through the first three weeks of the Fantasy Football season, Tom Brady has scored 40.5 Fantasy points. That ranks 27th at quarterback, behind Mac Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, and a host of others. It’s also 0.3 points lower than what Lamar Jackson is averaging per game. The reasons are many, and they aren’t certain to get better in Week 3.
The most notable of Brady’s problems, and the one that should get better this week, is his lack of help at wide receiver. Chris Godwin has played 19 snaps, Julio Jones hasn’t played since Week 1, and Mike Evans missed Week 3 because of a suspension. Russell Gage currently leads the team in targets and catches. Scott Miller is second in targets and Leonard Fournette is second in catches.
We know Evans will be back in Week 3, and there’s hope Jones could contribute as well. That should help, but Vegas isn’t that excited. The Buccaneers‘ Week 3 game with the Chiefs has an over/under of 45, that’s five points lower than Seattle at Detroit. And Tampa is a 2.5-point underdog, so their implied point total is just 21.25. That’s lower than the Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, and Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys.
The other problem for Brady is that he’s not getting any help anywhere else either. The offensive line has been decimated and his 5.5% sack rate is his highest since 2017. The team does not have a rushing touchdown and their 3.4 yards per carry ranks 29th. All that and Brady’s pass volume has plummeted from 42 attempts to 31.
All this is to say, I don’t blame you if you want to start Brady in Week 4 against the Chiefs. But you’re doing so based on no evidence from 2022. You’re just hoping that everything (or at least something) will fix itself and start looking more like what we expected. I’m not sure that’s going to happen this week and I’m not willing to bet on it until I see it.
Let’s get to the rest of the preview:
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Week 3 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 3 — Lamar Jackson has at least three touchdown passes in every game this year.
- 2 — Just two touchdown passes this season for Russell Wilson.
- 16.7 — Marcus Mariota led all quarterbacks with a 16.7-yard average depth of target in Week 3.
- 5.4 — Aaron Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks.
- 9.35 — Jalen Hurts is averaging 9.35 yards per pass attempt, which leads the NFL.
- 31.4 — Justin Fields has scored 31.4 Fantasy points this season, that’s dead last amongst QBs who have played all three games.
- 12 — Kyler Murray has just 12 rush attempts this season. That’s tied with Baker Mayfield for 11th-most.
- 8 — 8% of Tom Brady’s passes have been dropped this season. That’s tied for second-most behind only Jared Goff.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
One To Stash (QB Preview)