Last weekend was a rough one for those who included the Chiefs and 49ers in their NFL best bets. Kansas City lost outright to Indianapolis after several special teams blunders, but they return as one-point road favorites at Tampa Bay in the Week 4 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo’s drop out of the back of the end zone helped the Broncos (+1.5) win against San Francisco, 11-10. The 49ers are still 2.5-point favorites in the Week 4 NFL spreads NFL bad beats are a part of the game, but every week offers a clean slate of matchups for your NFL bets. All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 4 NFL predictions
One of the model’s strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Steelers (-3) cover against the Jets. Joe Flacco’s intriguing start to the season appeared to come to an end in Week 3, when he completed just 28-of-52 passes with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to Cincinnati. Meanwhile, quarterback Zach Wilson will make his return to action in Week 4 following his recovery from a preseason meniscus injury.
While Wilson’s return is bad news for Flacco, it should be welcome to those backing the Steelers. Wilson wasn’t dangerous when he was on the field last season and should be even less so this week if he is cleared to play. The model predicts that Wilson will just clear 200 yards passing with a turnover against a diminished Pittsburgh defense. The Jets were competitive two weeks ago against Cleveland, but the Steelers cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations while New York’s offense should sputter.
Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Lions (-4) cover the spread at home versus the Seahawks. After ranking 25th in scoring last year, the Lions now rank second this season, and it’s primarily due to their success on the ground.
The team leads the NFL with 5.9 yards per carry, ranks second with five rushing touchdowns, and is fourth with 511 rushing yards. Quarterback Jared Goff has also been clutch, as Detroit’s offense has scored 11 touchdowns across 13 red zone trips. That 84.6% conversion rate ranks third in the league. Detroit’s running game is projected to produce over 100 yards, while Goff has two touchdowns and over 250 yards through the air. The Lions cover in over 50 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 4 NFL odds, lines, spreads
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Thursday, Sept. 29
Dolphins at Bengals (-3.5, 47.5)
Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, Oct. 2
Vikings at Saints (+2.5, 43.5)
Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Browns at Falcons (+1.5, 48.5)
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns
Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Commanders at Cowboys (-3, 41.5)
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Seahawks at Lions (-4, 48)
Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets at Steelers (-3, 41.5)
Featured Game | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
Cardinals at Panthers (-1.5, 43)
Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Patriots at Packers (-9.5, 40.5)
Featured Game | Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
Broncos at Raiders (-2.5, 45.5)
Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Chiefs at Buccaneers (+1, 45)
Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, Oct. 3
Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams