NFL Week 4 picks against the spread: Saints, Falcons and Panthers all score upsets

Finally got a good week going on the overall picks in Week 3, so let’s keep it rolling into Week 4, a very tough layout for picking NFL games. Virtually all of the spreads are under a touchdown, with only the Pack/Pats line climbing into double digits.

The Dolphins‘ loss Thursday means there’s only one remaining undefeated team — Philly — and we continue to see an outrageous amount of parity across the entire league. 

It only makes picking a slate of games that much tougher, but let’s give it a try anyway. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Picks

Vikings at Saints (London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

TV: NFLN | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Early morning London football! The thing you never missed and yet somehow didn’t realize you wanted. The first international game is always so jarring — it’s like when there’s a random 11 a.m. ET college football game and you’re completely thrown for a loop. This line is extremely stinky. Minnesota is less than a three-point favorite against a Saints team that needed a miracle Week 1 rally against the Falcons to avoid 0-3 with a bad loss against Tampa Bay and a VERY bad loss against the Panthers. This feels like a situation where Andy Dalton starts and we get Spiderman Meme’d to death with him battling Kirk Cousins in not-quite-primetime. Weird feeling the Saints steal something here even though the Vikings are the better overall team. 

The pick: Saints 21, Vikings 17

Props, Best Bets: Saints +2.5

Bills at Ravens

Sunday,1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

If this game doesn’t turn into a crazy shootout with one of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen surging to the forefront of the MVP race, it will be really disappointing. The Bills and Ravens have defensive issues and are two of the most explosive teams in football. Both were roundly criticized for accuracy and passing skills coming into the 2018 draft and both have emerged as clear dominant forces. Rashod Batemen and Devin Duvernay are answering questions about Baltimore’s receiving corps. The Bills have some lethal quick-score options as well. It’s probably square but the over feels like a lock here. 

The Pick: Ravens 35, Bills 31

Bets: Ravens +3, Over 51

Browns at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Are the Falcons better than we thought? This will be an interesting test game against a 2-1 Browns team lingering quite large with Deshaun Watson coming back. The Browns are second in rush DVOA on offense and the Falcons are a bottom five team in rush defense by DVOA (worth noting: usually it’s best to wait four weeks for adjusted stats on that based on Football Outsiders reevaluating preconceived biases). Cleveland’s defense has been lacking and it’s hard to imagine Myles Garrett is playing this Sunday; it’s great news he’s doing well as he is. Despite the rushing matchup, Atlanta is going to hang in this game and maybe find a way to steal it.

The Pick: Falcons 24, Browns 21

Bets: Pass

Bears at Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Looking at this 39.5 total, it’s hard to tell whether or not it’s simply these two offenses or the possibility of hurricane weather coming in that direction. My thinking is the former. The Bears are an improbable 2-1 … but so are the Giants! I’ve heard multiple people suggest (shoutout my new buddies from RGA) Daniel Jones played his best game as a pro against the Cowboys on Monday night. He was pressured 26 times on 36 dropbacks, just an insane number. Roquan Smith is on an absolute bender right now with 27 (!) tackles in his last two weeks. He’s the difference maker here, as is the Bears ground game.

The Pick: Bears 17, Giants 14

Bets: Bears

Jaguars at Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Two of my three favorite teams from 2022 squaring off in a difficult game to pick. The Jaguars are the only team in the entire NFL with a top-five offense and defense by DVOA. Doug Pederson, a.k.a. “NUM” a.k.a. (Not Urban Meyer) has some big time Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco 2011 vibes. But I’m not sure this week is the max-out spot for the Jags, even in a Doug Pederson Revenge Game. The Eagles are simply just very good, and their defense can lock people down late when it’s clicking.

The Pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 17

Bets: Pass

Seahawks at Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Lions are a fun team, but there are a lot of injuries on offense — D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra St. Brown are out — and the defense is capable of letting anyone storm through the back door. We could look back at this game and point to the seventh seed in the NFC. 

The Pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 24

Bets: Pass

Chargers at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Justin Herbert has to remain a question mark, almost as big a question mark as keeping Justin Herbert in the game when the Chargers were up not only three but four scores. Brandon Staley is a good coach, but it feels like he abandoned his principles this season and maybe it has him a little shook? There’s zero reason Herbert should have played as much as he did. The Texans are 0-2-1 but have been in every game they’ve played. I think they are live for an upset here courtesy of a big game from Damion Pierce.

The Pick: Texans 27, Chargers 24

Bets: Texans +5

Jets at Steelers 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Steelers are not good on offense, but the Jets are really bad on offense. The under here is probably a pretty good look even if the total is sub 40. There’s a chance this becomes the Kenny Pickett game, although Mike Tomlin’s seemed pretty set on continuing to roll with Mitchell Trubisky as his quarterback. I’m taking the Steelers but by no means am I confident with it. 

The Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 15

Bets: No bets

Titans at Colts

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

This a huge AFC South game — the winner ends up likely getting a little bit of a leg up on the Jaguars, assuming the Eagles take care of business. Indy has the better overall roster/team, I think. The Titans can get a ton of interior pressure with Jeffrey Simmons and that should disrupt Matt Ryan enough to keep this division battle close. 

The Pick: Colts 20, Titans 17

Bets: No bets

Commanders at Cowboys

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Dallas is a remarkable 2-1 despite rolling out Cooper Rush at QB the last few weeks. Washington got stomped by the Eagles last week, but I’m not sure they’re as bad as they looked against Philly. The Eagles might simply be the best team in football. The Cowboys defense could be a big problem pressure-wise here, but I think Washington can keep it close enough with Carson Wentz throwing the ball downfield in the second half. It’s also fair to wonder if we might see some adjustment from defenses against Rush and perhaps a correction. 

The Pick: WFT 21, Cowboys 17

Bets: N/A

Cardinals at Panthers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Nasty little plot twist for the Cardinals who find themselves at 1-2 and an underdog on the road against a Panthers team no one thinks is particularly great. Carolina could be 2-1 pretty easily however, and the defense is playing at a pretty high level. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense is operating in an unsustainable fashion and against a Panthers defense with enough speed to contain and chase down Kyler Murray, this is a spot for Matt Rhule to flip some of the FCF (first coach fired) pressure onto Kliff Kingsbury, whose offseason contract extension looms awkwardly at the moment.

The Pick: Panthers 20, Cardinals 17

Bets: Pass

Broncos at Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Raiders are an incredibly desperate team — the only 0-3 team in the NFL — getting ready to host the … first place Denver Broncos. Russell Wilson‘s struggled badly on deep passes and he and Nathaniel Hackett simply can’t get on the same page. Hackett’s in-game decision making has obviously lacked a certain competence. For that reason give me the Raiders to find a way to win this game, even though it’s difficult to be confident in their defense. Davante Adams needs a signature performance here.

The Pick: Raiders 31, Broncos 24

Bets: Raiders -3

Packers at Patriots

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Mac Jones is “day to day” according to Bill Belichick, who had some interesting media sessions this week. There are rumors about him wanting to force his way out on the field for this game, but I’m not sure it matters when looking at the handicap here. Aaron Rodgers on a bigger stage (key CBS game on Sunday afternoon) against Belichick with the Packers offense starting to get rolling and the defense playing outstanding football. The Patriots simply aren’t very good right now and Brian Hoyer vs. an injured Mac won’t change that much. 

The Pick: Packers 24, Patriots 7

Bets: Pass

Chiefs at Buccaneers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Revenge Game! The Chiefs are favored here but it could simply be a result of expectation for the game being moved to a neutral site. That’s not the case, with Tampa clear of Hurricane Ian much sooner than expected. Mike Evans is back, Tom Brady is in primetime at home and the Bucs defense should still be able to give Mahomes some fits. 

The Pick: Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 27

Bets: Buccaneers 

Rams at 49ers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Really wanted to make the Rams a best bet this week, but Kyle Shanahan’s history of dominating L.A. just has me too concerned. The Rams got their offense going against Arizona to the tune of 7.4 yards per play last week. San Francisco offers a much tougher defensive test. Unfortunately so do the Rams and Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t looked great since taking over for Trey Lance. Making matters worse is Trent Williams absence. I’ll buck trends and take the Rams to steal this one on the road in prime time.

The Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 21

Bets: Pass