Tuesday, June 25, 2024

2022 NASCAR playoffs at Talladega odds, predictions, picks: Top model fades Brad Keselowski at YellaWood 500

The 2022 NASCAR playoffs will continue on Sunday with the 2022 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET. With only two races remaining until the number of championship-eligible drivers is slashed from 12 to eight, every point becomes more and more critical. Chase Briscoe is currently eighth in the 2022 NASCAR standings and he’ll be hoping to hold on to a seven-point cushion over the next two weeks, while Austin Cindric, William Byron, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman are all on the chopping block.

Briscoe is listed as a 28-1 longshot in the 2022 YellaWood 500 odds behind Cindric (18-1), Byron (15-1), Bell (22-1) and Bowman (25-1) but a win would guarantee any of those drivers a spot in the next round. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Bubba Wallace are the 12-1 co-favorites in the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds. Before scouring the 2022 YellaWood 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Texas picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan and then last week it was high on Tyler Reddick before he won at Texas for a 12-1 payout. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Talladega race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 YellaWood 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Talladega predictions

For the 2022 YellaWood 500, the model is high on Cindric, even though he’s an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Talladega odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After earning seven starts in the NASCAR Cup Series a season ago, Cindric was given a full-time ride with Penske Racing in 2022. He took over the No. 2 car that Brad Keselowski made famous over a dozen years at Penske and drove it to a win at the 2022 Daytona 500 to begin the year.

Cindric is a lock for 2022 NASCAR Rookie of the Year but he’s got larger aspirations as he enters Sunday sitting ninth in the standings. He’s seven points outside the bubble to qualify for the next round of the playoffs and his team should be able to provide him a quick superspeedway setup based on his win in the Daytona 500 and a third-place finish in the Daytona night race last month. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a surprise: Brad Keselowski, who is tied for the seventh-lowest odds at 15-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 15. There are far better values in the 2022 YellaWood 500 starting lineup. It’s been a mixed bag for Keselowski at Talladega in recent years. 

He finished first and second in the spring and fall races, respectively, in 2021 at this track. But he hasn’t even finished in the top 12 in any other starts here since 2017. He’s well out of the playoff field and hasn’t finished in the top five all season in any points races, so the model doesn’t like his value at 15-1 in this one. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Talladega picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Talladega odds of 17-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the YellaWood 500 2022? And which longshots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR Talladega leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season

2022 YellaWood 500 odds, field

See full NASCAR Talladega picks, best bets, and predictions here

Bubba Wallace 12-1

Ryan Blaney 12-1

Joey Logano 12-1

Denny Hamlin 13-1

Chase Elliott 13-1

Kyle Larson 14-1

William Byron 15-1

Brad Keselowski 15-1

Ross Chastain 15-1

Kyle Busch 16-1

Tyler Reddick 17-1

Austin Cindric 18-1

Kevin Harvick 20-1

Martin Truex Jr. 20-1

Daniel Suarez 22-1

Christopher Bell 22-1

Alex Bowman 25-1

Chris Buescher 25-1

Aric Almirola 25-1

Erik Jones 28-1

Ricky Stenhouse 28-1

Chase Briscoe 28-1

Austin Dillon 28-1

Michael McDowell 30-1

Ty Gibbs 30-1

Harrison Burton 75-1

Cole Custer 75-1

Daniel Hemric 100-1

Noah Gragson 100-1

Todd Gilliland 100-1

Corey Lajoie 100-1

Ty Dillon 125-1

JJ Yeley 500-1

Landon Cassill 500-1

Cody Ware 750-1

BJ McLeod 750-1

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