Thursday, July 18, 2024

NFL Week 6 early odds: Bills road favorites over the Chiefs, Eagles favored over Cowboys at home

Week 5 in the NFL is nearly in the rearview mirror with just the Chiefs and Raiders left on the slate for Monday night. This weekend left no shortage of storylines and it all centers around the NFC East. The Giants pulled off the upset over the Packers in London, Dallas’ defense dominated the Rams, and the Eagles remain a perfect 5-0 after escaping Arizona with a win. This division will take center stage next week when Philadelphian and Dallas square up for Sunday Night Football, which is just one of the handful of marquee games on the upcoming slate. 

With that said, let’s take an early look at what’s to come in Week 6. Below, we’ll take our first glimpse of these matchups and get our impression of the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top. 

Note: Detroit, Tennessee, Las Vegas, and Houston are on the bye in Week 6

Week 6 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Commanders (1-4) at Bears (2-3), Thursday

Latest Odds: Chicago Bears PK

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Opening line: Bears -1

Chicago was initially a 1-point favorite back in the spring, but this game quickly shifted to a pick’em for the bulk of the summer. The lookahead, however, flipped the odds and made Washington the 1-point road favorite before bumping back down to a pick’em following Week 5’s action. The Commanders are tied for a league-worst 1-4 ATS record to begin the season, while Chicago is 2-2-1 ATS. The Bears kept the game close with the Vikings on Sunday and did see one of their more impressive days passing the football as Justin Fields dropped back 21 times on the afternoon. As the home team, the Bears are 1-0-1 ATS, while Washington is 0-2 ATS on the road. 

49ers (3-2) at Falcons (2-3) 

Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons +5.5

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Opening line: 49ers -6

This line initially opened as 49ers -6 back but ticked up a half point to -6.5 in the lookahead last week. Coming out of Sunday’s Week 5 action, this line has come back down to 49ers -6. That could be due to the vast array of injuries San Francisco endured in their win over Carolina, including Nick Bosa (groin), Robbie Gould (knee), Jimmie Ward (hand), and Emmanuel Moseley (ACL). Not only are the Niners banged up, but the Falcons have proven to be a betting darling this season. So far, they are 5-0 ATS with the most recent cover coming thanks to a 15-point fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. On the road, San Francisco is 1-2 ATS this season. 

Patriots (2-3) at Browns (2-3) 

Latest Odds: Cleveland Browns -3

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Opening line: Patriots -1.5

This line has moved considerably since opening at Patriots -1.5 back in the spring. Thanks to the strong play by the Browns in the absence of Deshaun Watson and New England’s injuries piling up under center, the lookahead has the Browns as a 3.5-point favorite. That’s largely held going through Week 5 as the Browns are now a field-goal favorite, which could be thanks to rookie Bailey Zappe looking serviceable in the Patriots’ shutout win over Detroit. Neither one of these teams has been particularly appealing to back as they are a combined 4-5-1 ATS through the first five weeks. Under head coach Kevin Stefanski, the Browns are 6-11 ATS as a home favorite. 

Jets (3-2) at Packers (3-2) 

Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -7

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Opening line: Packers -9.5

Green Bay was a 9.5-point favorite at the opening and the lookahead last Tuesday. However, this line has sunk to Packers -7.5, which is likely a response to Green Bay falling to the Giants in London along with the Jets dropping 40 points in a win over the Dolphins on Sunday. New York has looked solid with Zach Wilson back from injury and dominated on the ground with five total touchdowns against the Dolphins. That could once again be their main point of attack as the Giants were able to run on the Packers in Week 5 and Green Bay is allowing 4.8 yards per carry. So far this season, the Jets are 2-0 ATS on the road. 

Jaguars (2-3) at Colts (2-2-1) 

Latest Odds: Indianapolis Colts -2

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Opening line: Colts -7.5

The Colts have failed to meet their preseason expectations so far and that’s reflected in the change in this line. After being a 7.5-point favorite when this line was first released in the spring, the Colts now find themselves as a slim 1-point home favorite over Jacksonville. This is even down a 1.5-points from the lookahead line of Colts -2.5. Despite getting the win last week in Denver, Indy failed to score a single touchdown and the offense continues to look disjointed. The status of Jonathan Taylor will also be worth monitoring leading into this game. As for the Jags, they struggled to score points in their loss to the Texans and made a handful of growing pain mistakes that makes this young team a dice roll to back. However, they did shut out this Colts team back in Week 2, so it’s possible they can get back into the win column here. Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS on the road this season. 

Vikings (4-1) at Dolphins (3-2) 

Latest Odds: Miami Dolphins +3

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Opening line: Dolphins -3

Miami was the offseason favorite for this matchup, but it was moved to a pick’em in the lookahead. Now, Minnesota sits as the field goal favorite following a strong showing offensively against the Bears in Week 5. Of course, the status under center for the Dolphins also is a key factor in this swing in the odds. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in concussion protocol and it’s unclear what their statuses are for possibly suiting up in Week 6. If they are unable to go, rookie Skylar Thompson would get his first start after coming in under duress following Bridgewater’s injury on Sunday. Minnesota is tied with a league-worst 1-4 ATS record through the first five weeks, while Miami has covered 60% of their games. The Dolphins are also 2-0 ATS at home this season. 

Bengals (2-3) at Saints (2-3) 

Latest Odds: New Orleans Saints +1

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Opening line: Bengals -1

After volleying between Bengals -1 and a pick’em since debuting back in May, Cincinnati currently stands as a 1-point favorite coming out of Week 5. The Bengals are fresh off a primetime loss to the Ravens and the Joe Burrow-led offense hasn’t been able to reach the heights it did a year ago. Meanwhile, the Saints pulled out a win against Seattle despite not having Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas. Taysom Hill was the catalyst in that win, totaling four total touchdowns. Cincy is 3-2 ATS this season, which includes a 2-1 ATS record on the road The Saints are .500 ATS at home this season. 

Ravens (3-2) at Giants (4-1) 

Latest Odds: New York Giants +5.5

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Opening line: Ravens -3.5

Baltimore jumped to a 5.5-point favorite in the lookahead line last week and has ticked up to a full 6-point favorite following Week 5. The Ravens moved to 3-2 on the season thanks to a game-winning field goal by Justin Tucker against the Bengals. Despite the win, Baltimore’s passing game didn’t impress much as Lamar Jackson seemed a touch off with his throws throughout the evening. The Ravens will also likely be without star safety Marcus Williams for this game after he suffered a dislocated wrist. As for the Giants, they may be the most improbable 4-1 team in the NFL and are hot off an upset win over the Packers in London. New York is also 4-1 ATS season, which is tied for the second-best mark in the NFL. Baltimore finds itself 2-2-1 ATS through five weeks. 

Buccaneers (3-2) at Steelers (1-4) 

Latest Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers +8

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Opening line: Buccaneers -5.5

Tampa Bay grew to a 6.5-point favorite in the lookahead last week and their advantage has only increased since. Now, they are laying 7.5 points to the Steelers on the road. The Bucs let the Falcons in for a backdoor cover on Sunday, which moved them to 2-3 ATS on the season. The Steelers (1-3-1 ATS) started first-round rookie Kenny Pickett on Sunday against Buffalo and, while the young QB showed promise, they were blown out, 38-3, and failed to cover even with 14-points in their pocket. Since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa in 2020, the Bucs are 11-11 ATS on the road. 

Panthers (1-4) at Rams (2-3) 

Latest Odds: Los Angeles Rams -10

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Opening line: Rams -8.5

Los Angeles is now a double-digit favorite over the Panthers in Week 6, laying 10 points in this NFC matchup. The Rams were -9.5 in the lookahead and even their loss to Dallas couldn’t get this line to swing more favorably toward Carolina. 

Baker Mayfield suffered a left ankle injury against the 49ers on Sunday and was spotted in a walking boot, so his status for this game is unclear. Even at full strength, Mayfield and the Panthers offense has yet to impress at all this season as their 4.9 yards per play average is tied for the second-lowest in the NFL. Those struggles have since resulted in the firing of head coach Matt Rhule. Steve Wilks will serve as the interim head coach. 

Meanwhile, L.A.’s offense was just shelled by Dallas’s elite defense as Matthew Stafford was sacked five times, strip-sacked twice (one returned for a touchdown), and picked off once. He should have smooth sledding in this game, but the Rams offense has struggled to begin the season. Combined, these teams are 2-8 ATS. 

Cardinals (2-3) at Seahawks (2-3) 

Latest Odds: Seattle Seahawks +3

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Opening line: Cardinals -3

Arizona bumped down to a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead last week but has since jumped back up to the full field goal. The Cardinals covered and nearly handed the Eagles its first loss of the season on Sunday. They are 3-2 ATS this season, which includes a 2-0 ATS record on the road. In fact, the Cardinals have been a strong bet as the road team over the last few seasons. Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals have covered 73.1% of their road games since 2019, which is the best record in the NFL over that stretch. The Seahawks fell to the Saints in Week 5, but the offense hasn’t been the problem as they put up 32 points in the loss and Geno Smith currently leads the NFL with a 75.2 completion percentage. Seattle’s defense is giving up a league-high 6.6 yards per play. 

Bills (4-1) at Chiefs (3-1) 

Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs +2

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Opening line: Bills -1

A rematch of that wild divisional round matchup last season is one of the top games on the Week 6 slate. The Bills were initially the 1-point favorite when this line came out in the spring but sat as a pick’em when it was rereleased at the lookahead. The Chiefs were briefly a 1-point favorite just before the 1 p.m. kickoffs on Sunday, but Buffalo has now jumped out as the favorite, laying two points. This line could change following the events on Kansas City’s Monday night matchup with the Raiders, but Buffalo looked to be in playoff form with a 38-point thumping of the Steelers. Josh Allen — who barely played in the fourth quarter — threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns in the win to move the Bills to 4-1 and 3-1-1 ATS on the year. So far this season, the Bills are 1-1-1 ATS on the road. 

Cowboys (4-1) at Eagles (5-0) 

Latest Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -5

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Opening line: Eagles -1

Philly jumped out as a 5.5-point favorite in the lookahead and moved as high as -6.5 before Sunday’s action. Since then, the line has settled back down to the Eagles laying 5.5 points to Dallas at home. Philadelphia is the last undefeated team in the NFL at 5-0 but is only 3-2 ATS through the first five weeks. To this point, Dallas has been the better bet as they are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Cowboys defense has proven to be arguably the best in the NFL as they forced three turnovers against the Rams, including a fumble recovery that was returned for a touchdown. Given how well both teams are playing, this is set up to be one of the best games on the Week 6 slate. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS at home this season, while the Cowboys are 2-0 ATS on the road, so something will need to give in this NFC East showdown. 

Broncos (2-3) at Chargers (3-2), Monday

Latest Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -6

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Opening line: Chargers -3

Los Angeles moved to a 4-point favorite in the lookahead and that has only grown since Week 5 kicked off. Currently, they are laying six points to a Broncos team that has yet to live up to the preseason hype and has struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball. Russell Wilson also recently underwent a procedure where he had an injection in his throwing shoulder. He plans to play through the injury, but it’ll be interesting to see how much that impacts him here. Denver is tied for a league-low record against the spread, covering just one of their five games played this season. As for the Chargers, they are 4-1 ATS this season. 

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