Champions League Matchday 5 scenarios: Here’s who can advance to knockout stage and what they need to do

With matchday four in the books, five teams have booked their places in the last 16 of Champions League with two matches to spare. Some of these are familiar faces but others are slightly unexpected. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Club Brugge, Napoli, and Manchester City have booked their places but what do other teams need to do to join them on Matchday 5?

First off, let’s take a look at tiebreakers if a team finishes level on points. Things are a little different than general league play. The first tiebreaker is the points in head-to-head matches between the tied teams. If the tied teams are still level in their points in head-to-head matches then it goes to the goal difference in head-to-head matches for the teams. Finally, the advantage would go to the team that has scored the most goals. An example is what we’ve seen from Barcelona and Inter Milan. Inter beat Barca 1-0 at home and then drew 3-3 on the road, giving the Italian club four points head-to-head with Barca getting just one via the draw. That means if they finish level on points, Inter go through. 

If multiple teams are tied after going through all of the prior tiebreakers then goal difference in all group matches comes into play. That’s followed by goals scored in all group stage matches, away goals scored in all group matches, wins in all group matches, and then away wins in all group matches. If that still doesn’t do it, we reach the disciplinary points for each team and the UEFA club coefficient. 

So let’s look at who can get out of each group

Group A

• Napoli (12 points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win versus Rangers and a Liverpool loss or draw versus Ajax.
• Liverpool (nine points): Can qualify with a win or draw vesus Ajax.
• Ajax (three points): Can’t qualify directly after the next game against Liverpool. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a win or draw versus Liverpool.
• Rangers (zero points): Out of running for the Champions League knockout stages. Can’t qualify for a Europa League place on Matchday 5. 

Group B

• Club Brugge (10 points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win or draw versus Porto. 
• Porto (six points): can qualify for knockouts with a win versus Club Brugge and an Atletico Madrid loss or draw versus Leverkusen. Can clinch at least a Europa League place with a draw and a Bayer Leverkusen loss.
• Atletico Madrid (four points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a win over Bayer Leverkusen.
• Bayer Leverkusen (four points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages or Europa League on Matchday 5.

Group C

• Bayern Munich (12 points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win or draw over Barcelona or an Inter Milan loss or draw versus Viktoria Plzen.
• Inter Milan (seven points): Can qualify for knockouts with a victory over Plzen due to tiebreaker over Barca. Can also qualify with a draw if Barcelona draws or loses. Qualification is also secured with a Barcelona loss.  
• Barcelona (four points): Can qualify for at least Europa League with a win, draw, or a Viktoria Plzen loss. Can’t qualify for the knockout stages on Matchday 5.
• Viktoria Plzen (zero points): Out of the running for knockouts. Can’t qualify for Europa League on Matchday 5.

Group D

• Tottenham (seven points): Can qualify for knockouts with a win over Sporting CP. Can also qualify for at least Europa League with a draw and an Eintracht Frankfurt loss to Marseille due to a better head-to-head record.
• Marseille (six points): Can qualify for knockouts with a win over Frankfurt and a Sporting CP loss due to head-to-head record. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a win over Frankfurt.
• Sporting CP (six points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a win over Spurs and a loss by Frankfurt.
• Eintracht Frankfurt (four points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages or Europa League on Matchday 5.

Group E

• Chelsea (seven points): Can qualify for knockouts with a win over RB Salzburg. Can qualify for Europa League with at least a draw and an AC Milan draw or loss to Dinamo Zagreb.
• RB Salzburg (six points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Can qualify for Europa League with a win or draw against Chelsea and an AC Milan win or draw against Dinamo Zagreb.
• AC Milan (four points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Can qualify for Europa League with a victory over Dinamo Zagreb due to a better head-to-head record.
• Dinamo Zagreb (four points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a victory over AC Milan by more than two goals. If Dinamo Zagreb defeats AC Milan by a 2-0 score, Europa League qualification will need to wait until matchday six.

Group F

• Real Madrid (10 points): Qualified for the knockout round. Can win the group with a win or draw against RB Leipzig due to a better head-to-head record against Shakhtar.
• RB Leipzig (six points): Can qualify for knockouts with a victory over Real Madrid and a Shaktar loss to Celtic. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a Celtic loss or draw.
• Shakhtar Donetsk (five points): Can’t qualify for knockouts on Matchday 5. Shakhtar can qualify for at least Europa League with a win or draw versus Celtic.
• Celtic (one point): Eliminated from qualifying for knockouts with either a loss or draw to Shakhtar or an RB Leipzig win or draw versus Real Madrid. Eliminated from qualifying for Europa League with a loss to Shakhtar.

Group G

• Manchester City (10 points): Qualified for the knockout round. Can win Group G with a win or draw versus Dortmund. 
• Borussia Dortmund (seven points): Can qualify for the knockout round with at least a draw against Manchester City or a draw between Sevilla and Copenhagen.
• Sevilla (two points): Eliminated from contention for the knockout stages if Dortmund pick up at least a point. Can qualify for Europa League with a victory over Copenhagen due to a better head-to-head record.
• Copenhagen (two points): Eliminated from contention for the knockout stages if Dortmund pick up at least a point. Can qualify for Europa League with a victory over Sevilla due to a better head-to-head record.

Group H

• PSG (eight points): Can qualify for knockouts with a win or draw against Maccabi Haifa. PSG can qualify for Europa League if they lose to Maccabi Haifa and Juventus loses or draws against Benfica.
• Benfica (eight points): Can qualify for knockouts with a win or draw against Juventus. Benfica can qualify for Europa League with a loss and a Maccabi Haifa loss or draw against PSG.
• Juventus (three points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages or Europa League on Matchday 5.
• Maccabi Haifa (three points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages or Europa League on Matchday 5.