Wednesday, July 17, 2024

NFL Week 5 early odds: 49ers favored in clash with Cowboys, Texans slight dogs at Falcons after upset win

And just like that the first month of the 2023 regular season is nearly in the books. The only thing left to be determined is a Monday night showdown between the Seahawks and Giants and then it’s on to Week 5. While we’ll certainly want to keep our attention on that primetime matchup between these two NFC squads, it doesn’t hurt to have one eye wandering toward what’s ahead. 

Below, we’ll get our first glimpse of all the Week 5 matchups and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Note: Cleveland, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are all on the bye in Week 5.

Week 5 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Game Early line Early total Early moneyline

Bears at Commanders (Thursday)

Commanders -6


Bears +203, Commanders -250

Jaguars at Bills (in London)

Bills -4.5


Jaguars +187, Bills -229

Giants at Dolphins

Dolphins -9.5


Giants +353, Dolphins -458

Titans at Colts

Colts -1


Titans -106, Colts -115

Texans at Falcons

Falcons -2.5


Texans +114, Falcons -136

Ravens at Steelers

Ravens -3.5


Ravens -182, Steelers +154

Saints at Patriots

Patriots -1.5


Saints +101, Patriots -121

Panthers at Lions

Lions -8.5


Panthers +312, Lions -399

Bengals at Cardinals

Bengals -4


Bengals -203, Cardinals +169

Eagles at Rams

Eagles -5


Eagles -223, Rams +182

Chiefs at Vikings

Chiefs -5.5


Chiefs -227, Vikings +187

Jets at Broncos

Broncos -2.5


Jets +123, Broncos -146

Cowboys at 49ers

49ers -3.5


Cowboys +149, 49ers -175

Packers at Raiders (Monday)

Packers -1.5


Packers -117, Raiders -102

Notable movement, trends

Bears at Commanders 

The Bears let what looked like their first win of the season slip through their fingers, blowing a 21-point lead to the Broncos. The lone silver lining from that crushing defeat might be that the club saw Justin Fields account for four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Washington took Philadelphia to overtime, but couldn’t pull off the upset. Under Ron Rivera, the Commanders are 7-8 ATS as a favorite. Dating back to last season, the Bears are a league-worst 2-8 ATS on the road.

Jaguars at Bills (in London)  

This is one of the higher totals for Week 5. Buffalo is fresh off a 48-point thrashing of the Dolphins on Sunday, while the Jaguars posted 23 points in their international win against the Falcons. This game will once again take place in London and the fans could be in for an offensive showcase. That said, the Over is 4-4 combined between these two teams this season. Since 2018 (when Josh Allen arrived in Buffalo), the Bills are 2-0 ATS on a neutral site. 

Giants at Dolphins

New York still has its Week 4 matchup to focus on, but has the tough challenge in Week 5 when they travel down to Miami to face a Dolphins team looking to rebound after a loss to Buffalo. They are near double-digit favorites over the Giants and are 2-0 ATS this year when looked at as the favorite. This season, the Giants are 0-2 ATS on the road.

Titans at Colts

Tennessee enjoyed a vintage performance from Derrick Henry as they blew out the Bengals on Sunday. The back rushed for 122 yards, ran for a touchdown, and threw for a score. Defensively, the Titans held Cincy to just 4.1 yards per play. They’ll now get a more dynamic offense, however, in the Colts, who showed some resiliency despite falling to the Rams in overtime. This divisional matchup is tight as Indy is a slim one-point favorite. As a dog this season, Tennessee is 3-1 ATS. 

Texans at Falcons

Houston is fresh off an upset win over the Steelers as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to look the part of a top-five pick. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense is heading in the other direction as they played uninspired ball in their loss to the Jaguars in London. Still, they are a slight 2.5-point favorite, which is a dip after this number opened at Falcons -3.5. Atlanta is 1-3 ATS on the year, while Houston is 1-1 ATS on the road. 

Ravens at Steelers

The story here surrounds Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who left Sunday’s game with a knee injury. While early reports note that he may have avoided a serious injury, he could still miss time. With that in mind, it’s not surprising to see this number at Ravens -3.5 after opening at Ravens -2. Over the last five years, the Ravens have been the best bet on the road, covering in 66.7% of their games away from Baltimore (No.1 in the NFL over that span). 

Saints at Patriots

New England has reached a low point in its season after being blown out at the hands of the Cowboys in a game where Bill Belichick elected to bench Mac Jones. They’ll now look to pick up the pieces as they head back to Foxborough to host a Saints team that also is struggling with an injured Derek Carr. Given where both of these offenses are at, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see this game as the lowest total on the Week 5 slate. Through the first month, the Under is 7-1 between these two teams. 

Panthers at Lions

Carolina built up an early lead over the Vikings, but couldn’t string along anything offensively to pull off the upset at home, dropping them to 0-4 on the year. Now, they go on the road to face a Lions team that is among the best teams in the NFC and is laying 8.5 points. Detroit is 3-1 ATS on the year while the Panthers have yet to record an ATS win (0-3-1). Going back to last season, the Lions are 8-3 ATS at home. 

Bengals at Cardinals. 

The Bengals are at a crossroads. Joe Burrow still doesn’t look 100% and he just lost one of his top receivers in Tee Higgins (ribs) due to injury. Despite that, they are a road favorite as they head to Arizona. The Cardinals might be a live dog here as they are 3-1 ATS on the season while the Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS. Cincinnati’s 4.0 yards per play is the lowest in the NFL through four weeks, while the Cardinals are averaging 6.9 yards per play at home (second-best in the NFL). 

Eagles at Rams

Philadelphia let the Commanders sneak back into their game and force overtime after knotting the game with a last-second touchdown but was able to avoid the upset with a win in overtime. They’ll now take on a Rams team that also needed overtime to record the win over Indy. The Eagles are a five-point road favorite for this game. Under head coach Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia is covering 46.2% of their games as a road favorite but is 2-0 under this circumstance this season. 

Chiefs at Vikings

When firing on all cylinders, these two offenses have the capability of exploding, so seeing a total north of 50 shouldn’t shock you. Still, the Under has hit in three of Minnesota’s four games this season and is 2-2 for the Chiefs. Since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 17-19 ATS as a road favorite. 

Jets at Broncos

Denver rallied from 21 points down to beat the Bears on the road for their first win of the year. Now, they’re 2.5-point favorites over a Jets team that gave the Chiefs a run for their money on Sunday night. Zach Wilson is coming off his best win of the season and it’ll be fascinating to see what he can do against a Denver secondary that allowed Justin Fields to throw for four touchdowns in Week 4. Denver is 0-3-1 ATS through the first month while the Jets are 2-2 ATS, including a cover on Sunday. 

Cowboys at 49ers

Both of these NFC clubs are coming off convincing double-digit wins in Week 4 and now enter what could be a playoff preview. The Niners are now laying the field goal with the hook after opening at -3. Both teams are 3-1 ATS on the year, but the Niners are 2-0 ATS at home. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 19-16-1 ATS (54.3%) as a home favorite, which is the sixth-best cover percentage in the NFL over that stretch.

Packers at Raiders

The status of Jimmy Garoppolo will need to be monitored for this game after the Raiders quarterback was unable to clear concussion protocol and play in Week 4. If he plays, that could swing things for Las Vegas, who is currently a 1.5-point home underdog to the Packers. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this season, which includes a 2-0 ATS mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Raiders failed to cover their lone game at Allegiant Stadium so far this year. 

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