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Thursday Night Football odds, spread, line: Commanders vs. Bears prediction, NFL picks from expert on 26-9 run

Almost exactly one year ago, the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears met on Thursday Night Football. The Commanders won that matchup by a narrow, 12-7 margin in Week 6 of the 2022 season, and the rematch is scheduled for Thursday in Week 5 of the 2023 campaign. Chicago is aiming for its first win of the season after an 0-4 start that includes an 0-2 road mark. Washington is 2-2 overall this season, but the Commanders are looking to stop a two-game losing skid. 

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. SportsLine consensus lists Washington as a six-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 44.5 in the latest Commanders vs. Bears odds. Before making any Bears vs. Commanders picks or NFL predictions, be sure to see what SportsLine’s resident Commanders expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving Washington

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections formed the basis of his SportsLine NFL best bets article, which finished 36-25-1.

In addition, Hartstein has a keen sense of what to expect from the Commanders and is 26-9-1 on his last 36 NFL picks involving Washington, returning a whopping $1,591. Anybody who has been following him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Commanders vs. Bears and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Commanders:

  • Commanders vs. Bears spread: Commanders -6
  • Commanders vs. Bears over/under: 44.5 points
  • Commanders vs. Bears money line: Commanders -270, Bears +220
  • CHI: Bears are 0-3-1 against the spread this season
  • WASH: Commanders are 2-2 against the spread this season
  • Commanders vs. Bears picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Bears can cover

Chicago’s offense performed well a week ago, out-gaining the Denver Broncos by a 160-yards margin, including more than a 70-yard advantage on the ground. The Bears also had nine more first downs than the Broncos, averaging 6.7 yards per play and generating 28 points. Chicago’s running game is effective and efficient, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and the Bears can lean on the dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Justin Fields. He has nearly 1,300 rushing yards in the last 19 games, averaging 6.8 yards per rush, and Khalil Herbert is an emerging talent at the running back position. Herbert is averaging 5.5 yards per carry over the last two seasons and erupted for 103 yards on 18 carries last week while adding four receptions.

On the outside, D.J. Moore has 301 yards and two touchdowns in four games and has averaged 1,103 passing yards per season over the last four years. The Bears also have an effective tight end in Cole Kmet, who has the third-most touchdown catches (nine) among tight ends since the start of the 2022 season. Chicago’s offense is also facing a vulnerable Washington defense that is allowing 34.7 points per game over the last three games. The Commanders have given up 13 plays of at least 25 yards, tied for the most in the NFL, and Chicago can take advantage with explosive plays. See which team to pick here.

Why the Commanders can cover

Chicago’s defensive struggles are well-documented, and Washington has a favorable matchup for quarterback Sam Howell and its offense as a result. However, the Commanders also stand to gain on the defensive side of the ball. Washington has five takeaways in four games this season and opponents have converted only 41.7% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Chicago’s offense has performed better than its defense, but the Bears are averaging only 18.8 points per game and scoring on only 31.7% of offensive possessions.

The Bears have eight giveaways in four games, turning the ball over on almost 20% of possessions. Chicago is averaging fewer than 310 total yards per game, including the league’s No. 24 mark in passing yards, and the Bears land in the bottom third of the league in first downs. The Bears struggle to move the chains on schedule, converting only 38% of third down chances, and Washington has eight players with at least one sack already this season. That is headlined by Montez Sweat, who has three sacks and four tackles for loss in 2023. See which team to pick here.

How to make Commanders vs. Bears picks

Hartstein is leaning Over the point total, and he also has isolated a critical X-factor that has him going big on one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bears vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bears vs. Commanders spread to back, all from the expert who is an astounding 26-9 on picks involving Washington, and find out.

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