Sunday, July 21, 2024

Bowl projections: Florida State jumps Texas in College Football Playoff, but Longhorns remain in field

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Claire Komarek, CBS Sports

Texas took its first loss of the season to Oklahoma, 34-30, in the Red River Rivalry, a result that has caused a shift in the College Football Playoff projection. However, despite the Longhorns falling from the ranks of the undefeated, they do not take as dramatic a fall as one might expect.

In fact, the ‘Horns remain in the CFP projection as the highest-rated one-loss team, only dropping from No. 3 to No. 4.

The scenario that serves as the basis for this projection: Texas and Oklahoma win out with the Horns getting revenge on the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game and both teams finishing the season 12-1. Ohio State — also a one-loss team in this projection — would be 11-1 after falling to eventual Big Ten champion Michigan at the conclusion of the regular season.

Texas gets the spot over Ohio State in this scenario due to being a conference champion (a minor criterion) and having a win over Alabama on the road in nonconference play. Ohio State also has a quality nonconference road win at Notre Dame, but it would be a 12th victory and a conference title short of matching Texas’ resume. Oklahoma does not have a quality nonconference game on its schedule.

Florida State moves up from No. 4 to No. 3 with Georgia and Michigan remaining on top. The Bulldogs whipped Kentucky 51-13 on Saturday with the Wolverines similarly annihilating Minnesota 52-10.

College Football Playoff

Date Game / Loc. Matchup Prediction

Jan. 8

National Championship
Houston

Title game Semifinal winners
Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl
New Orleans
Semifinal (1) Georgia  vs. (4) Texas

Jan. 1

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.

Semifinal

(2) Michigan vs. (3) Florida State

Jerry Palm will be back with his complete, updated bowl projections on Sunday.

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