Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 171-119 run

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to extend an historic streak on Thursday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes and company will host the Denver Broncos, and Kansas City has won 15 straight games against Denver. The Chiefs are 4-1 this season after a 27-20 road win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Broncos are 1-4, including a 1-1 mark away from Denver. The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in every game this season.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds. Before making any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 171-119 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 25-11 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Broncos and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs: 

  • Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Chiefs -10.5
  • Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under: 47.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Broncos money line: Chiefs -583, Broncos +428
  • DEN: Broncos are 0-4-1 against the spread this season
  • KC: Chiefs are 3-2 against the spread this season
  • Chiefs vs. Broncos picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Broncos can cover

Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler, has thrown for more than 1,200 yards with 11 touchdown passes and only two interceptions this season. He is No. 2 in the NFL in passing touchdown rate (6.7%) and No. 4 with a 106.1 passer rating through five weeks. 

Wilson is also in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt (7.4) and interception rate (1.2%) and has added 119 rushing yards to keep pressure on opposing defenses. The Broncos are averaging more than 24 points per game, landing above the NFL average this season, and Denver is in the top 10 with 2.26 yards per drive. Wilson’s 11 touchdown passes rank in the top five and Denver is in the top eight with 5.8 yards per play and 4.9 yards per rush attempt in 2023. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Denver ranks dead-last in the NFL in points allowed, total yards allowed, yards allowed per play, rushing yards allowed, and completion rate allowed. The Chiefs are in the top five of the NFL in giving up only 16.0 points per game and their opponents are generating only 1.16 points per possession. The Chiefs are firmly in the top 10 in total yards allowed (301.4 per game) and yards allowed per play (4.9), and Kansas City is giving up only 5.2 net yards per pass attempt.

Chiefs’ opponents have combined for only one rushing touchdown against Kansas City this season. Kansas City is in the top 10 of the league in first downs allowed (90), third down conversion rate (35.4%), and red zone efficiency (46.7%). Defensive tackle Chris Jones anchors the unit with 4.5 sacks this season and he has 20 sacks since the start of the 2022 campaign. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks on TNF

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, calling for 52 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 171-119 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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