Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Duke vs. Arizona prediction, odds, line, time: 2023 college basketball picks, Nov. 10 bets by proven model

Two of the top teams in college basketball meet for a highly-anticipated non-conference showdown on Friday. The No. 12 Arizona Wildcats visit Durham to face the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in prime time. The matchup will be held at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and it is the only meeting between top-15 teams on Friday. Both teams are 1-0 this season after Arizona finished 28-7 and Duke finished 27-9 a year ago. Duke forward Mark Mitchell (ankle) is questionable.  

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Blue Devils as 5.5-point favorites for this 7 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 154.5 in the latest Arizona vs. Duke odds. Before making any Duke vs. Arizona picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It went 85-55 on all top-rated college basketball picks last season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anyone who followed it saw huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Arizona and revealed its CBB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Arizona vs. Duke:

  • Duke vs. Arizona spread: Duke -5.5
  • Duke vs. Arizona over/under: 154.5 points
  • Duke vs. Arizona money line: Duke -232, Arizona +189
  • Arizona: The Wildcats are 17-20 against the spread in the last 37 games
  • Duke: The Blue Devils are 17-17-2 against the spread in the last 36 games
  • Duke vs. Arizona picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Arizona can cover

The Wildcats were excellent on both ends of the floor last season and showcased that two-way upside in the 2023-24 opener. Arizona had the best offensive efficiency mark in the country in its opening game, scoring more than 1.57 points per possession. That led to more than 120 points on 55% shooting, with Arizona also generating 26 assists and 32 free throw attempts. Oumar Ballo leads Arizona as one of the country’s best returning centers, and he averaged 14.2 points and 8.6 rebounds while shooting 64.7% from the field a year ago. 

On the defensive end, Arizona also dominated the opener, holding Morgan State to 39% and producing 25 turnovers against only 10 assists. Last season, the Wildcats allowed only 0.98 points per possession and were elite in opponent shooting. Arizona held its opposition to 46.2% shooting on 2-point attempts and 32.3% on 3-point attempts, with the Wildcats also grabbing almost 74% of available defensive rebounds. Arizona also finished in the top 35 nationally in free throw rate allowed on defense, with opponents averaging fewer than 13 assists per game against the Wildcats in 2022-23. See who to back at SportsLine

Why Duke can cover 

The Blue Devils host this matchup at Cameron Indoor Stadium after a season in which Duke was 16-0 at home. That home-court advantage could prove beneficial, and Duke has a tremendously talented roster, headlined by Kyle Filipowski. Filipowski is a preseason All-American after averaging 15.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in 2022-23, and he opened the 2023-24 season with 25 points and seven rebounds in Duke’s opening win. He is the centerpiece of an offense that scored more than 1.09 points per possession last season, and Duke shot 64% from the field and 41% from 3-point range in its 2023-24 debut. 

The Blue Devils crushed the offensive glass last season, finishing in the top 10 nationally with a 35.9% offensive rebound rate, and Duke was also elite at the free throw line, making 76.6% of attempts. On defense, Duke allowed only 34% shooting and 22% from 3-point range in the season opener, and the Blue Devils were in the top 15 of the nation in shooting efficiency allowed last year. Opponents shot only 30.5% from 3-point range and 46.2% from inside the arc against Duke in 2022-23, and the Blue Devils were also in the top tier of the country in free throw prevention (13.7 attempts allowed per game) and block rate (12.2%). See who to back at SportsLine

How to make Arizona vs. Duke picks

The model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 152 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Arizona, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that went 85-55 on its top-ranked college basketball picks last season, and find out.

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