Wednesday, December 6, 2023

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira odds, New York City predictions: MMA expert reveals surprising fight card picks

Former kickboxer Alex Pereira and former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka will meet in the main event of UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York. Prochazka won the light heavyweight title by defeating Glover Teixeira by submission at UFC 275 in June 2022, but later had to vacate the crown due to injury. Prochazka is No. 1 in the UFC light heavyweight rankings. Pereira, who is ranked third in the division, won his light heavyweight debut in July with a three-round split decision victory over Jan Blachowicz. 

The main UFC 295 fight card begins at 10 p.m. ET. Pereira is a -125 favorite (risk $125 to win $100), while Prochazka comes back at +105 in the latest UFC 295 odds. The co-main event features a heavyweight interim title bout between Sergei Pavlovich (-105) and Tom Aspinall (-115). Before finalizing any UFC 295 picks, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Kyle Marley.

Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event.

Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up nearly $11,000. The accomplished MMA analyst has provided consistent winners for SportsLine members for the past four years. His accomplishments include hitting five consecutive main-event underdog winners in 2020 following the UFC’s brief pause in action because of the pandemic. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, with UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira in sight, Marley has studied the UFC card from top to bottom and revealed his top picks and best bets. You can only see Marley’s MMA picks at SportsLine.

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira preview 

Prochazka has been on a roll and has not lost since December 2015, and has compiled a 29-3-1 record since making his debut in April 2012. He has dominated most matches and has won 25 bouts by knockout. He comes in at No. 14 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. He earned Performance of the Night honors in two of his last three matches.

Prochazka, who is from the Czech Republic, began his professional MMA career for the Gladiator Fighting Championship. In his first two years of fighting professionally, he compiled a 7-2 record. In his 10th match, he won the inaugural GCF heavyweight championship. Since losing to Muhammed Lawal in the Rizin World Grand Prix 2015, he has won 13 matches in a row.

Pereira, who has compiled a 33-7 record in kickboxing, including 21 wins by knockout, has made the seamless transition to MMA. Although he lost his middleweight debut to Quemuel Ottoni by submission in October 2015, he followed that up with seven consecutive wins. After winning the UFC middleweight championship and Performance of the Night honors by defeating Israel Adesanya by knockout in November 2022, the tables were turned on him when Adesanya knocked him out in UFC 287 in April of this year to earn the middleweight crown. He rebounded in July with the win over Blachowicz.

Pereira is 8-2 with six wins by knockout and two by decision. He is No. 10 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. The versatile Pereira has one professional boxing match under his belt as well, defeating Marcelo de Souza Cruz by TKO in the third round of a four-round match in June 2017. See all of Marley’s UFC 295 picks here

Top UFC 295 predictions

One of Marley’s top UFC 295 picks: He is backing Diego Lopes (+100) to defeat Pat Sabatini (-120) in a battle of featherweights on the main card.

Lopes, who has compiled a 21-6 record, is looking to rebound from a unanimous decision defeat to Movsar Evloev in a three-round bout this past May. Lopes, who has won two of his last three matches, has won eight bouts by knockout and 11 by submission. Four of his losses have been by decision. The Brazilian began his professional career in 2012 in Brazil, but has since moved to Mexico, where the majority of his matches have been.

Sabatini, 32, is from the United States and has compiled an 18-4 mark, with two wins by knockout and 11 by submission. In his last bout this past June, he won by submission in 1:48 of the second round over Lucas Almeida. Sabatini began his MMA career in April 2014, winning eight of his first nine matches. He earned Performance of the Night honors with a first round submission win over Jamall Emmers in August 2021.

“This is a great fight between two good grapplers. Sabatini should be the better wrestler and he could land takedowns in each round and win 30-27 by holding top control and grinding out minutes. Lopes should be the better and more dangerous striker though, and he is always hunting for submissions on the ground. Lopes has the finishing equity in this matchup, so I’d rather stay away from the money line and look to his inside the distance line, or Sabatini by points,” Marley told SportsLine. See who else to pick here.

How to make UFC 295 picks

Marley has strong picks for Prochazka vs. Pereira and every other bout on the UFC 295 card. He’s also backing a fighter who “can dominate his fight on the mat” to emerge with a huge victory. See Marley’s picks at SportsLine.

Who wins Prochazka vs. Pereira, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 295, all from the MMA expert who’s up nearly $12,000 on MMA in the past three-plus years, and find out.

UFC 295 fight card, odds

See full UFC 295 picks, predictions, best bets here.

Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs. Alex Pereira (-125)
Sergei Pavlovich (-105) vs. Tom Aspinall (-115)
Jessica Andrade (+165) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-200)
Matt Frevola (+190) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-230)
Diego Lopes (+100) vs. Pat Sabatini (-120)
Steve Erceg (-165) vs. Alessandro Costa (+140)
Nazim Sadykhov (-135) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+115)
Jared Gordon (-195) vs. Mark Madsen (+165)
Joshua Van (-225) vs. Kevin Borjas (+185)
Dennis Buzukja (+210) vs. Jamall Emmers (-250) 

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