You know what goes great with some turkey? Football! The NFL has a tripleheader on deck for Thanksgiving and, for the first time ever, will treat us to a Black Friday game as well. That’s four games over the two-day holiday stretch before we kick things into full gear on Sunday and Monday. Every one of those games is a division rivalry showdown, so the competition should be at an all-time high and will feature a number of Super Bowl contenders.
As we do every week for the entire slate, we’ve collected all of the best Thanksgiving and Black Friday picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine. We’ve put them all in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional featured content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus Odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -7, O/U 45.5
Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The SportsLine Projection Model has cooked up a Thanksgiving parlay that you’ll definitely want to feast your eyes on. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-125 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season. Now, it’s eyeing a parlay that would pay around 12/1. We can tell you that one of the legs is Packers +7.5, but to see the rest of legs you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
“If you didn’t get to watch the Lions on Sunday — and I’m guessing you didn’t because I’m pretty sure their game was only shown to about 1.3% of the country — they pulled off the most improbable comeback of Week 11. They were trailing by 12 points with three minutes left to play against the Bears and somehow still won.
“Sure, it was against the Bears, but it was still impressive, and this is how I know the Lions are different this year. The old Lions would have lost that game by 33 points because the Bears would have somehow scored three touchdowns over the final three minutes to complete the blowout. But these Lions are so good that they were able to sleepwalk through three- and-a-half quarters and still win.
“Speaking of sleepwalking through three-and-a-half quarters, that’s almost always what I used to do on Thanksgiving when the Lions were playing, but now that they’re good, I’ll probably end up watching this entire game.
“After getting that wake-up call against the Bears on Sunday, I feel like the Lions are going to roll in this game. The biggest thing working in the Lions’ favor is that they’ll be going up against a Packers defense that is surrendering 134.7 rush yards per game this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. On the flip side, the Lions have an offense that ranks fifth overall in rushing yards per game. I think what I’m trying to say here is that the Lions might not have to throw a single pass to beat the Packers, which would be fitting, since I’m pretty sure that’s the same game plan they used to beat the Plymouth Pilgrims when they played on the first Thanksgiving back in 1621.
“The last time the Lions started 8-2 came all the way back in 1962 and they improved their record to 9-2 with a Thanksgiving win over the Packers. I see history repeating itself this week. Time is truly a flat circle.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech explaining why he has the Lions taking down the Packers, 30-20, on Thanksgiving. To see all of his Week 12 picks, click here.
“It doesn’t look like the Packers will have Aaron Jones for this matchup, which is a massive dent in their overall offense. While Green Bay was able to beat the Chargers at home last week, Jordan Love continues to have me question his consistency and overall ability to keep up with an offense like Detroit’s, especially without his best weapon in Jones. Jared Goff is coming off a three-interception game in Week 11, but the Lions were still able to come out with a win and I expect the quarterback to put together a more sound outing this week. This could also be a strong day for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as they face a Packers run defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the road (fifth-highest in the NFL).” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he has the Lions taking down the Packers and covering the 7.5-point spread on Thanksgiving. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Time: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Cowboys -10.5, O/U 46
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
“The reason I think this is going to be a blowout is because the game is in Dallas and the Cowboys have been blowing out everyone at home. Not only are the Cowboys 4-0 at home this year, but they’ve won all four of those games by at least 20 points.
“The Cowboys have also won 12 straight home games dating to last year and Dak Prescott hasn’t lost a divisional home game since 2017. THAT WAS SIX YEARS AGO. Since then, he’s won 14 straight divisional games at home, which is the fourth-longest streak in NFL history and if the Cowboys win on Sunday, he’ll move into a tie with Troy Aikman for the third-longest streak ever (Tom Brady has the longest streak at 20 games). Also, Prescott has never lost to Washington at home (he’s 5-0).
“And let’s not forget about the fact that Sam Howell is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this year and he’ll be facing a Cowboys defense that’s extremely good at sacking the quarterback. That seems like a disaster waiting to happen.” — CBS Sports writer John Breech on why he sees Dallas blowing out the Commanders, 31-17. To see the rest of Breech’s picks for Week 12, click here.
The SportsLine Projection Model is on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. It is also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. With that in mind, you’ll want to see which way it’s leaning for Commanders-Cowboys. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over the total, but also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. To see what side that is, head on over to SportsLine.
“The Commanders are coming off a dud last week against the Giants, while Dallas is flying high. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the league. Washington’s offensive line is an issue, which will lead to the Cowboys having a field day with their defensive front. Dak Prescott plays well again. Cowboys roll.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Pete Prisco on why he has the Cowboys beating the Commanders, 32-16. To see the rest of Prisco’s picks for Week 12, click here.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: 49ers -6, O/U 43.5
Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
SportsLine’s Josh Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. Specifically, Nagel has had his fingers on the pulse of the Seahawks and is a blistering 24-10 (+1300) on his last 34 picks in games involving Seattle. Naturally, you’ll want to know which way he is going in this NFC West matchup, especially with Nagel finding key X factor that has him attacking one side of the spread. We can tell you he’s leaning over the total, but to see his spread pick you’ll have to head to SportsLine.
“The 49ers are showing us that they are fully back on track after a stellar win over the Bucs on Sunday. Brock Purdy had a perfect passer rating, they got contributions from all of their skill-position players, and the defense is top-notch. Losing safety Talanoa Hufanga is a tough blow, but it doesn’t sway me from laying the points here especially with this number being under a touchdown. Geno Smith likely won’t be 100% after suffering an injury to his throwing arm on Sunday or it’ll be Drew Lock under center for Seattle. Either way, it’ll be tough for Seattle to keep pace with San Francisco’s offense, especially when needing to claw through a Niners defense. That unit ranks fourth in pressure rate coming into Week 12, while the Seahawks offensive line is allowing pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explaining why he has the 49ers covering the 6.5-point spread over Seattle. To see all of his Week 12 picks, click here.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Time: Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Open: Dolphins -7.5, O/U 42
Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
“This Friday game the day after Thanksgiving isn’t what it was expected to be with the Jets being an offensive disaster. The Jets defense is coming off a bad showing against Buffalo, and will be challenged here by the Dolphins. Tim Boyle will start at quarterback for the Jets, but will it matter? Even so, I think the Jets keep it close with their defense.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Pete Prisco on why he has the Dolphins taking down the Jets, 21-16. To see the rest of his Week 12 picks, click here.
“Miami is an Under team now, led by its defense. The offense has bogged down and a run game that averaged 6.5 yards per carry over the first six weeks is at just 3.9 per carry since (22nd in the league). De’Von Achane is ailing again, and the last two Miami games didn’t crack 35 points. Miami has scored 20 or fewer in three of their last four games and is facing a tougher defense on Friday. The Jets held the Dolphins to 28 total points in two games last season.
“The Dolphins defense is getting sharp and figuring out Vic Fangio’s system. The Jets are last in the NFL with nine offensive touchdowns, four fewer than any other team. Is Tim Boyle really going to generate points? Really? I just hope there aren’t multiple pick-sixes, or it could be 20-13. It’s a short week with limited practice and Miami has to travel and head into the cold, with an offense that isn’t nearly as sharp when playing out of South Florida. The Jets have gone Under in 12 of their last 15 games.” — SportLine’s Jason La Canfora has been one of the site’s sharpest and has now laid out a slew of best bets for Week 12. That includes taking the Under 40.5 total in Dolphins-Jets on Black Friday. To see the rest of his picks that includes a must-back play in Packers-Lions, go check out SportsLine.
