Winning weeks are good. I guess.
I went 8-7-1 against the spread with my NFL picks last week and was 9-7 straight up. But when you consider that the week really wasn’t that tough, I don’t feel good about it.
Here’s why I know that: Kudos to my co-worker Dave Richard, who is part of our CBSSports.com Expert Picks, since he went 14-1-1 ATS. That just shows it wasn’t a tough week. Right, Dave?
Seriously, I need a week like that. I am now 88-85-7 ATS and 108-72 straight up for the season.
We are getting to December. That’s when contenders emerge. It’s also a good time for a nice week, one way over .500 both ATS and straight up.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
This is an enormous game for these teams in terms of the playoffs. The Cowboys are rolling right now, while the Seahawks are stumbling. The Cowboys have been dominant at home and there’s no reason to think that won’t carry over here. Dak Prescott continues his hot ways. Cowboys big.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 20 (Result: Cowboys 41, Seahawks 35)
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a long trip for a Chargers team that has underachieved in a big way. But the Patriots have been even worse. At least the Chargers have a capable quarterback. Even the woeful Chargers pass defense won’t wake up the New England offense. The Chargers win it.
Pick: Chargers 23, Patriots 10
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (+4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Lions are coming off a bad home loss to the Packers, while the Saints are coming off a road loss to the Falcons. The Lions defense has become a major problem as of late. I look for Derek Carr to play well here as the Saints win a shootout against the Lions.
Pick: Saints 32, Lions 30
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Falcons lead the NFC South after beating the Saints last week, while the Jets are spiraling. The New York offense is awful, no matter who plays quarterback. The defense can still play at a high level, which is why this will be close. Even so, look for the Falcons to win it.
Pick: Falcons 19, Jets 17
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers seemed to find something on offense last week after the coordinator change, while the Cardinals went backward on offense last week in a loss to the Rams. The Steelers defense will again present a challenge for Kyler Murray and he will struggle. Kenny Pickett will be good enough to win it.
Pick: Steelers 24, Cardinals 13
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 13.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts are smack dab in the middle of the playoff race, which is a surprise to many. The Titans are 4-7, but they’ve won all four at home. That matters. Mike Vrabel will have his team ready in a division game and Will Levis will outplay Gardner Minshew. Titans win it.
Pick: Titans 23, Colts 20
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders (+9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders have had a coaching shakeup on the defense, which could help get that unit going a bit. It will be a real challenge against this Miami offense. But the Dolphins haven’t been putting up gaudy numbers on the road. They won’t here either. They will win it, but Sam Howell will keep it close.
Pick: Dolphins 26, Commanders 23
Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
In terms of playoff implications, this is a big game. Denver has won five in a row and the defense has keyed the turnaround. The Texans lost to the Jaguars last week in a big game, but they will bounce back here as they win a tight one with C.J. Stroud getting the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Texans 24, Broncos 22
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers fired coach Frank Reich, but he was far from the issue with this team. The roster isn’t good and Bryce Young isn’t playing well. The Bucs have had major defensive issues lately, but this is a team that can cure those. The Panthers won’t get the fired-coach bump as Tampa Bay wins it.
Pick: Bucs 27, Panthers 17
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Browns are playing a second straight on the road, but they stayed over on the West Coast. They didn’t look good in losing to Broncos last week. The Rams have won two straight games out of their bye to get into the playoff race. I look for Matthew Stafford to outplay Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his return to his college city. Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 21, Browns 16
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is the game of the week, a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game. That game was won by the Eagles when Brock Purdy got hurt. He’s back and playing well. The Eagles defense is not. The San Francisco defense seems to be back on track after a lull a few weeks back. That’s the difference. The 49ers will win a tough road game.
Pick: 49ers 27, Eagles 23
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (+6.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Chiefs are playing consecutive road games, while the Packers have added rest after playing on Thanksgiving. That’s an edge for the Packers. Green Bay has improved on offense with Jordan Love, which will keep them in this game. The Chiefs will find a way late to win it — but it’s close.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Packers 23
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
This game has lost a lot of its luster with the loss of Joe Burrow. Jacksonville is coming off a big division victory, which sometimes can lead to a letdown. But since this is on Monday night, and they haven’t been in this spot since 2011, there will be no letdown. They get the best of Jake Browning in his first road start.
Pick: Jaguars 28, Bengals 13
