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2023-24 college football bowl games: Confidence picks, pool predictions, computer model rankings

The College Football Playoff is set and a controversial final four will include No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Washington, No. 3 Texas and No. 4 Alabama vying for the national championship. However, the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl — this year’s national semifinals — are just two of the 41 college football bowl games between FBS schools on the schedule this season, not including the College Football Playoff National Championship on Jan. 8. With so many intriguing matchups on the board, thousands of fans will be entering college football bowl confidence pools this season with hopes of winning bragging rights and prize money.

To compete against your family and friends, you simply pick the winners of each game and assign points in order of most confident to least confident. So who should your top college football bowl confidence pick be (41 points), and which toss-up games with tough matchups should be near the bottom? Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don’t miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 season a profitable 13-9 on its top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine

Top college football bowl confidence predictions

One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens, Fla. Georgia won’t win a third consecutive national championship after losing in the SEC Championship Game to Alabama but can achieve 13 wins or more for a third consecutive season against an FSU squad that was also left out of the CFP despite an undefeated season. 

Florida State star Jordan Travis will miss the game after suffering a gruesome leg injury late in the season and that was the driving force behind the CFP committee selecting one-loss Texas and one-loss Alabama to make the playoff. Expect to see a somewhat dejected Seminoles squad that could lose several other key players to the NFL Draft without a national title to play for. That’s a big reason why the model has the Bulldogs winning in 80% of simulations, making them the third-strongest pick in its bowl confidence predictions.

Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. Chris Klieman has led the Wildcats to a bowl for the fourth time in his first five seasons at the helm after winning four FCS national championships in five seasons at North Dakota State. Kansas State ranked 10th in the nation in scoring offense (37.8 ppg) this season and also ranked top 30 in scoring defense (21.2 ppg). 

Meanwhile, the Wolfpack struggled to move the ball offensively (346.3 ypg) and ranked 70th in the nation in scoring offense (26.8 ppg) and Dave Doeren’s squad has lost in its last three bowl appearances. Kansas State is only favored by 3.5 points via the SportsLine consensus odds but the model has them winning comfortably by double-digits on average and predicts a win in well over 70% of simulations. See all of the model’s college football bowl confidence picks here.

How to make college football bowl confidence picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine

So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out. 

2023-24 college football bowl schedule

See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ET
New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ET
Cure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ET
LA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET
Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noon
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noon
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ET
Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ET
First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ET
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ET
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ET
Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ET
Sun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ET
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET
Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ET
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ET
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ET
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ET
Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ET
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 8

CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET

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