The NFL is giving football fans a treat in Week 14, with not one but two “Monday Night Football” games. One is an AFC battle where the Miami Dolphins play host to the Tennessee Titans.
The Dolphins entered this week atop the conference, and a win against Tennessee can keep them there as they head into the stretch run of the 2023 NFL season. The Titans are playing for the future and draft positioning, but they can also throw a wrench into the playoff picture if they manage to pull off an upset here.
So, will the Dolphins keep pace at the top of the AFC, or will the Titans play spoiler? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Dec. 11 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
TV: ESPN | Stream on fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Dolphins -14, O/U 46 (via Sportsline consensus odds)
When the Titans have the ball
In his explosive NFL debut, Will Levis completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards and four touchdowns. After that game, here’s what we wrote about how much of that performance was likely to be sustainable going forward:
It’s hard to parse what to make of a debut like that. On the one hand, two of the touchdowns were legitimately fantastic throws: the 33-yard loft to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine that traveled all the way across the field afterLevis rolled out to his right was a thing of beauty, and the 61-yard bomb to DeAndre Hopkins on a double-move was extremely pretty as well. But the first score came on a throw Levis left way too far inside and saw Hopkins get away with a rather obvious pass interference, and the second was a short crosser that Hopkins took to the end zone by speeding away from the nearest defender and then spinning through a tackle at the goal line.
Throw in the fact that he averaged just over 3 yards per attempt on his other 25 throws, and it starts to seem more complicated than just, “Levis threw for four touchdowns and therefore he was amazing.” Obviously, throwing for four touchdowns in your debut is fantastic work, and the Titans will take it any day of the week. But we should be clear about how those scores came about when we’re trying to project how Levis might do going forward, and in a different matchup.
Alas, in his ensuing starts, Levis is a mere 88 of 156 (56.4%) for 1,028 yards (6.6 YPA), three touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s also taken 17 sacks and fumbled four times, losing two of them. Now he has to go up against a Dolphins defense that has rounded into excellent shape in recent weeks and hasn’t allowed more than 260 passing yards since Week 4, holding six of eight opponents below 190 during that span. Miami will again be without star edge rusher Jaelan Phillips due to his torn Achilles, but the secondary is playing so well since Jalen Ramsey’s return from knee surgery that Vic Fangio can dial up more pressure looks than he usually might.
For the Titans to move the ball in this one, they’ll have to lean on the Derrick Henry-led run game. That’s easier said than done: Miami gave up a preposterous 233 rushing yards to the Chargers back in Week 1, but has since held eight of 11 opponents under 100 and has yielded the seventh-fewest yards per carry overall. Tennessee may want to lean into Henry (and speedy rookie Tyjae Spears) and controlling the clock either way, because this offense does not really have enough playmakers to hang with the Dolphins if both teams are opening it up.
When the Dolphins have the ball
Are you ready to see some fireworks? If so, this side of the matchup is for you.
Tennessee has the NFL’s No. 1 rushing defense by FTN’s DVOA … but the No. 30 pass defense. The Titans check in 30th against No. 1 receivers, 30th against No. 2s and 28th on throws to running backs. They concerningly rank 31st against deep passes and 32nd against short passes. They have allowed an explosive gain (20-plus yards) on 9.2% of opponent dropbacks, the seventh-worst rate in the NFL.
Concerningly for the Titans, they also largely struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks (33.0% of dropbacks, per Tru Media), and Tagovailoa gets the ball out so quickly (2.36 seconds to throw average, fastest in the NFL) that defenders rarely have enough time to hurry him, let alone bring him to the ground. That combination leaves Tennessee especially vulnerable to the aforementioned explosives.
Needless to say, all of that is — to use a technical term — big trouble against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Co. Hill leads the NFL in explosive receptions by a mile, with his 36 such grabs five clear of the next-closest player (CeeDee Lamb). He is a big play waiting to happen against a defense that routinely gives up big plays. Jaylen Waddle hasn’t been as explosive this season as he was a year ago, but he is obviously a game-breaking player, and the Dolphins have a pair of backs who can break big plays on screens and check-downs alike in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
The Titans had a stretch where they got beat up a bit on the ground, allowing at least 128 yards rushing in five of six games from Weeks 5 through 11, but they have bounced back by holding the Panthers and Colts to a combined 151 on the ground. Miami’s run game has been better this season than last, with the Mostert/Achane combination slicing through opposing defenses on the regular and executing with both consistency (49.7% success rate) and explosiveness (10.1% of carries have gained 12 or more yards). It’s tough to run the ball on Tennessee, but Mostert and Achane are capable of breaking long ones against any defense at any time.
Prediction
Tennessee has the misfortune of being in one of the worst possible matchups here. If you are vulnerable through the air and especially deep down the field, you are likely to have major issues stopping Miami’s offense. And the Titans don’t have nearly enough firepower to keep up. Pick: Dolphins 33, Titans 13
I like my prediction but do yourself a favor and check out SportsLine proven model. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over the total and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. Check it out here.
And if you’re wondering who all of our experts are picking for the game, here are their predictions.
