The AFC’s playoff race is tighter than the sweater you tried to fit into the day after Thanksgiving. Yes, it’s that tight.
Six teams with 7-6 records are fighting for the conference’s final two wild card spots. Every team in the AFC North is above .500, although the Ravens have opened up a two-game lead over the Browns for first place. In the South, the Texans and Colts are both within a game of first place Jacksonville. And by virtue of Sunday’s loss to the Bills, the Chiefs‘ lead over Denver in the AFC West is down to a single game.
How is everything going to play out over the next month? Let’s just say it won’t be as predicable as a Hallmark movie. That being said, we can make some educated guesses at what will happen based on each contender’s remaining strength of schedule.
Below, we’ll rank each contender’s remaining strength of schedule in order, from toughest to easiest. Before we dive into that, here’s an updated look at the AFC standings, with the top seven currently in the playoffs (if you want a breakdown of the tiebreakers and each team’s outlook, click here).
1. Ravens (10-3)
2. Dolphins (9-3)
3. Chiefs (8-5)
4. Jaguars (8-5)
5. Browns (8-5)
6. Steelers (7-6)
7. Colts (7-6)
8. Texans (7-6)
9. Broncos (7-6)
10. Bengals (7-6)
11. Bills (7-6)
Each AFC contender’s remaining strength of schedule
| Team | Remaining S.O.S. (opponents’ win %) | |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Ravens |
.654 (at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers) |
| 2. | Dolphins | .615 (vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills) |
| T3. | Steelers | .577 (at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens) |
| T3. | Bengals | .577 (vs. Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns) |
|
5. |
.519 (vs. Cowboys, at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins) |
|
|
T6. |
Texans |
.481 (at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts) |
|
T6. |
Colts |
|
|
8. |
Browns |
.462 (vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals) |
|
T9. |
.423 (at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders) |
|
|
T9. |
Jaguars |
.423 (vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans) |
|
11. |
Chiefs |
.385 (at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers) |
Dolphins: The Dolphins lost a golden opportunity to keep pace with Baltimore in the race for the top seed, and Monday night’s shocking loss to the Titans could ultimately cost Miami a playoff bye. The Dolphins — who lost five straight games late in the ’22 season — have a tough upcoming schedule that includes games against the 10-3 Cowboys, 10-3 Ravens and 7-6 Bills.
Ravens: Sunday’s overtime win in K.C. was huge for Baltimore. It gave them a two-game cushion over the Browns in the division entering a daunting four-game stretch against the 49ers, Dolphins, Jaguars and Steelers. Barring a pretty big collapse, the Ravens should have the AFC North title in the bag. The Ravens’ home game against Miami in Week 17 may determine who earns the conference’s coveted playoff bye.
Steelers: Pittsburgh was expected to be just behind Baltimore at this point after starting 7-4, but consecutive home losses to 2-10 teams have eliminated the Steelers’ margin for error. Instead of pushing Baltimore, Pittsburgh is behind Cleveland and beside Cincinnati in the AFC North.
The Steelers and Bengals both have games on Saturday that could be considered must-win. The Bengals will host the 7-6 Vikings before the Steelers take on the Colts in Indianapolis. If both teams win on Saturday, that’ll set up a compelling Week 16 matchup between the two teams in Pittsburgh.
If the Steelers manage to win both those games, they could likely split their final two games (at Seattle and Baltimore) and make the playoffs. Steelers fans are likely hoping that Baltimore has nothing to play for when the rivals face off in Week 18.
While Mike Tomlin’s team has mounted late-season rallies in recent years, this season appears to be shaping out more like 2020, when Pittsburgh started 11-0 before finishing 12-4 and losing in the wild card round. The offense has been anemic, and the defense could be without T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith against the Colts.
Pittsburgh does have an advantage with running backs Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and a running game that has been the offense’s biggest strength over the past half-dozen weeks. If the Steelers can run the ball over the next month, they should still have a shot at the playoffs when they head to Baltimore on Jan 1.
Bengals: While the Steelers have struggled, the Bengals have gotten back into contention with wins over Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Jake Browning, rookie running back Chase Brown’s emergence, Tee Higgins‘ return from injury and a turnover-hungry defense have been among the reasons for the Bengals’ recent surge. Like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati’s next two games are crucial to their playoff hopes. The Bengals finish the season with a road game in Kansas City and a home game against a Browns team that has had their number in recent years.
Browns and Broncos: Speaking of the Browns, Cleveland and Denver are two wild card contenders who are sitting pretty. Kevin Stefanski’s team has two home games left against losing teams (the Bears and Jets) and a road game against a Texans team that has lost two of their last three games. Sean Payton’s squad has to face the 9-4 Lions in Detroit on Sunday, but end the season with three teams (the Patriots, Chargers and Raiders) that have a combined record of 13-26.
We can’t not talk about Joe Flacco and the incredible story unfolding in Cleveland. It’s very possible that the 38-year-old, former Super Bowl MVP will be starting a playoff game for the Browns next month. The Browns will likely clinch a playoff spot if they can split their last four games: at home against the 5-8 Bears, at the 7-6 Titans, at home against the 5-8 Jets and at Cincinnati in Week 18.
Jaguars: Two teams that could certainly use a light remaining schedule is Kansas City and Jacksonville, who have both lost two straight games. Jacksonville’s schedule, however, isn’t as easy as one would think. The Jaguars face the 10-win Ravens this weekend, followed by a road game against a Buccaneers team that is still in the running for the NFC South crown. They have a home game against one-win Carolina before facing division rival Tennessee in Nashville in Week 18.
Chiefs: That’s not the case for Kansas City, who face the 3-10 Patriots and 5-8 Raiders before hosting the Joe Burrow-less Bengals in Week 17. They end the season with a road game against a Chargers team that may not have Justin Herbert after he fractured his finger during Sunday’s loss to Denver.
Bills: The playoffs basically began for the Bills this past Sunday. By escaping Kansas City with a win, the Bills kept their playoff hopes alive, but that’s all they did. They’ve got two easier games on the slate (at Chargers and Patriots) but have two daunting matchups with 10-3 Dallas and Miami. Buffalo is probably going to have to 3-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs.
Texans and Colts: Things are just as bleak for the Texans, who suffered two big losses Sunday when C.J. Stroud fell hard on his head and has since been placed in the concussion protocol. They’ve got two games left against the rough and tumble Titans, a home game against Cleveland and a road game in Indianapolis to close out the regular season.
Here’s our best guess at how this all shakes out.
1. Ravens
2. Chiefs
3. Dolphins
4. Jaguars
5. Browns
6. Broncos
7. Bengals
8. Bills
9. Steelers
10. Colts
11. Texans
