In a strange twist, I was better against the spread than I was picking games straight up last week.
That’s because there were a lot of upsets and a lot of underdogs covered. I liked a lot of those dogs to cover, but not to win. Thus the record disparity for me as I went 10-4-1 against the spread and 8-7 straight up. That takes my season ATS record to 101-98-9 and my straight-up record to 124-84-0.
There is a full slate of 16 games this week, which makes the picking even more challenging. But I think I can build off of what happened last week ATS. Let’s stay hot.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
This will be Easton Stick against Aiden O’Connell. Oh, boy. Stick will be playing for the injured Justin Herbert, while O’Connell is coming off a game where his team was shut out. This won’t be pretty to watch. But I think the Raiders will find a way to win an ugly game.
Pick: Raiders 20, Chargers 14 (Result: Raiders 63, Chargers 21)
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
The Bengals have won two straight to get back into the playoff race behind Jake Browning. The Vikings won 3-0 over the Raiders last week, which tells you all you need to know about the offense. Nick Mullens will be the starter this week after coming off the bench last week for Joshua Dobbs. It won’t matter. Browning will play well and lead the Bengals to a third consecutive victory.
Pick: Bengals 23, Vikings 17
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
This is a big game in terms of the playoffs for both teams, especially with the Steelers coming off two straight losses and the Colts coming off a loss last week. The Steelers have issues on offense, but the defense has gone backwards lately as well. The Colts will win a tight one here to put an even bigger damper on the Steelers’ playoff hopes.
Pick: Colts 21, Steelers 16
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-5)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
The Broncos are playing a third consecutive road game, which is brutal to do. The Lions, though, are coming off a bad loss to the Bears last week. They are a different team at home, which is why I think this is where they can get back on track. It won’t be easy, but they find a way to win it.
Pick: Lions 29, Broncos 20
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Falcons let one get away in the closing seconds against Tampa Bay, but this is a good way to get back on the winning side. The Panthers are awful on offense. They can’t score. Atlanta can and it will in this one. The Falcons win it.
Pick: Falcons 25, Panthers 10
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bears have come alive the past two games with Justin Fields and the offense making strides. But this is a tough challenge against a good Cleveland defense. Joe Flacco is coming off an impressive showing for the Browns against Jacksonville, and I think he will play well here as well. The Browns take it.
Pick: Browns 27, Bears 22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is an enormous game for both teams. The Bucs are playing consecutive road games, while the Packers are playing on a short week. Green Bay didn’t look great in losing to the Giants, but I think Jordan Love will bounce back with a good game here. Green Bay takes it.
Pick: Packers 27, Bucs 21
New York Jets (+9) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins are coming off a brutal loss to the Titans Monday night in which they blew a late 14-point lead. The Jets beat up the Texans last week as Zach Wilson played well. The Dolphins beat the Jets a month ago, but this will be a lot tougher than that game. The Jets will hang around, but Miami wins it.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants have won three straight with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, but this will be a big challenge for him and the offense on the road in a tough environment. The Saints showed better on defense last week, which will play out here. The Saints win it behind that defense.
Pick: Saints 21, Giants 10
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans could be without quarterback C.J. Stroud if he doesn’t clear the concussion protocol. That would mean Davis Mills will start. The Titans are coming off a big road victory over Miami, one in which they rallied late behind Will Levis. The rookie quarterback is playing with a lot of confidence, which will continue in this one. The Titans take it.
Pick: Titans 27, Texans 19
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Chiefs go into Foxborough angry after what transpired at the end of their loss to the Bills. An angry Patrick Mahomes is never a good thing for an opponent. But the Chiefs have struggled to score points, and the New England defense is sound. The problem is the Patriots offense. The Chiefs will limit them and win this one.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Patriots 10
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers look to be cruising to the top seed in the NFC, while Arizona is playing out the string. The Cardinals are coming off a bye, which helps, and they did beat the Steelers two weeks ago. But this 49ers team is rolling, which isn’t stopping in this game. They will win it big.
Pick: 49ers 34, Cardinals 14
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Commanders are coming off a bye, but they aren’t playing for anything. The Rams are playing for their playoff lives. The Rams lost to the Ravens last week in overtime, but showed well. That will continue here as Matthew Stafford lights up the Washington defense.
Pick: Rams 31, Commanders 23
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a huge game for the Bills as they push for a playoff spot, while the Cowboys are pushing for seeding. Both offenses have had success lately, but the Cowboys have really amped it up. I think the Bills’ desperation will trump the Cowboys playing for a seed. Dallas is in, but Buffalo will get there. They start by winning a shootout here. Josh Allen beats Dak Prescott.
Pick: Bills 33, Cowboys 30
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Jaguars have lost two straight and have big injury issues to go with poor defensive play the past two weeks. The Ravens are in the top spot in the AFC. Their defense has struggled some lately as well. This could be a shootout between Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence. I’ll go with the better defense and take the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens 33, Jaguars 27
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Eagles have lost two straight and now must head out on the road for a second straight week. Seattle has lost four straight, but might have quarterback Geno Smith back for this one. This is a perfect spot for the Eagles to get back on track as they push to the postseason. Jalen Hurts will have a big day. Seattle won’t keep up.
Pick: Eagles 35, Seahawks 26
