At some point prior to 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 4, Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto with sign a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars with an MLB team. There are indications Yamamoto will sign before his 45-day posting window closes on Jan. 4, perhaps even before Christmas, but his free agency has a set end date, and it is roughly two weeks away.
Yamamoto is the offseason’s hottest commodity. He turned 25 in August, he’s won the last three Pacific League MVPs in Japan, and he has the talent to pitch at or near the front of the rotation for a long time. Players this young and this talented do not become available for nothing but money very often. That combination is likely to push Yamamoto’s contract into the $300 million range.
Our R.J. Anderson ranked Yamamoto the second-best free agent available this offseason, behind only the peerless Shohei Ohtani. Here’s a snippet of his write-up:
He is, in our estimation, the best pitcher in the world to have never suited up for an MLB team. Oh, and he just celebrated his 25th birthday in August. Talent evaluators have raved to CBS Sports about Yamamoto for years, citing his high-grade command over a good arsenal as the most impressive part of his game. He throws a mid-90s fastball about half the time, complementing it with a swing-and-miss splitter and a high-spin curveball. Each of those pitches went for a strike at least 65% of the time this season, reinforcing the notion that he paints with a fine-tip brush. There’s more than enough precedent to feel confident in Yamamoto making an easy adjustment to the MLB ball and schedule.
Yamamoto held Zoom meetings with teams two weeks ago, whittled down his list to several finalists, then met in-person with those finalists last week. Most meetings took place at his agent’s office in Los Angeles, though Yamamoto did visit Dodger Stadium and travel east to meet with the two New York teams for a second time this past weekend.
There are conflicting reports about whether offers have been made, though the serious bidding and negotiating is expecting to begin this week, according to the New York Post. Keep in mind the team that signs Yamamoto will owe the Buffaloes a substantial posting fee that is based on the size of his contract. A $300 million contract would send a posting fee close to $50 million Orix’s way.
It goes without saying all 30 teams — every single one of them — could use Yamamoto. He’s so young and so good that he fits any contention cycle. Ready to win right now? Great, he can help. Think you’re still a year or two away? That’s OK, Yamamoto will only be 26 when that happens. Deep in a rebuild? Well, Yamamoto can headline your youth movement.
Every team could use Yamamoto but not every team can afford him (or choose to afford him), and I’m guessing Yamamoto doesn’t want to sit through a rebuild. As such, his market is reportedly down to seven teams. Which team needs Yamamoto the most? There’s the on-field component and also the marquee value of rostering a Japanese star.
With that in mind, here is our ranking of Yamamoto’s seven suitors based on how much they need him. Some teams can more easily pivot and survive being rejected by Yamamoto than others and that is reflected here.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Thankfully there has been no flight tracker nonsense with Yamamoto’s free agency (yet). In Toronto’s case, they already have four very good starters — Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi — including a no-doubt ace in Gausman, and as far as reclamation projects for the No. 5 spot go, Alek Manoah is as good as any. The Blue Jays badly need a lefty bat(s) to diversify their righty heavy lineup and should invest there. They’d happily take Yamamoto, of course, but they’re in good shape with their current workhorse-laden rotation.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Squint your eyes and you can see a scenario in which the Phillies sign Yamamoto, pair him with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in 2024, then let Wheeler leave as a free agent next offseason, when he’ll be closing in on his 35th birthday. Doing so would require pushing the 2024 payroll higher than it’s ever been and hey, maybe owner John Middleton is cool with that. He’s made it clear he wants to win and thus might approve a massive 2024 payroll. Philadelphia has five quality starters — Nola, Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker — though Wheeler is a year away from free agency and the World Series window is not opening any wider. The Phillies don’t absolutely need Yamamoto, but they could certainly benefit from him.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers landed the biggest free agent in Ohtani and also traded for Tyler Glasnow to improve a rotation that is still way short on certainty. Ohtani will not pitch in 2024, remember. As things stand, the rotation without him is:
- RHP Tyler Glasnow (MLB career-best 120 innings in 2023)
- RHP Walker Buehler (coming back from his second Tommy John surgery)
- RHP Bobby Miller
- LHP Ryan Yarbrough
- RHP Emmet Sheehan (career-high 70 innings in 2023 between MLB and the minors)
- RHP Michael Grove
- RHP Gavin Stone (32 runs in 31 MLB innings in 2023)
Whether it’s Yamamoto or someone(s) else, the Dodgers need more pitching in addition to Glasnow. Much more, really. They could stand to add two new starters. Yamamoto’s mid-to-late 20s (i.e. his peak years) line up perfectly with what remains of Ohtani’s, Mookie Betts‘, and Freddie Freeman’s primes. The Dodgers are certainly smart enough to find pitching elsewhere, though I may have them ranked too low here. They could really use Yamamoto.
4. New York Yankees
Rotation-wise, the Yankees are in a better place than just about every team because they get to start their staff with Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner. The rotation behind Cole is very boom-or-busty and with substantial injury risk, however. New York’s current rotation:
- RHP Gerrit Cole
- LHP Carlos Rodón (injured and ineffective in 2023)
- LHP Nestor Cortes (injured and ineffective in 2023)
- RHP Clarke Schmidt (set a new career high by 66 innings in 2023)
- RHP Clayton Beeter (4.94 ERA and 5.6 BB/9 in Triple-A in 2023)
- RHP Will Warren
The Yankees parted with one MLB starter (Michael King) and two MLB-ready swingman types (Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez), not to mention arguably their top pitching prospect (Drew Thorpe), to get Juan Soto. Soto is a generational hitter, you do what you have to do to get him, but the trade did deplete New York’s pitching reserves. Cole turned 33 in September and Aaron Judge turns 32 in April. Those two only have so many prime years remaining and Yamamoto can up the team’s World Series odds considerably.
3. Boston Red Sox
Other than the impressive Brayan Bello, the Red Sox don’t have much in the way of long-term pitching. Garrett Whitlock has had trouble staying healthy and Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck toe the line between competent starter and effective reliever. Earlier this month Baseball America said Wikelman Gonzalez, Boston’s top pitching prospect, “could develop into a No. 4 starter” with improved control. The Red Sox have a strong position player core with prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel not far from joining Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the MLB level, but their pitching pipeline is lacking. Adding a 25-year-old ace-caliber pitcher is the single biggest step this team could take toward returning to contention.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants finally landed a big name free agent last week in Jung Hoo Lee, the 25-year-old star Korean center fielder. Lee alone will not return the Giants to the postseason, nor does Lee alone put an end to the “they can’t land a star” narrative. The fact of the matter is San Francisco still has needs all over the roster, including in the rotation, and they also need to do more to energize a fan base that once sold out an NL record 530 consecutive games, but slipped to tenth in the National League in attendance in 2023. I’m not sure any team will benefit more from the off-the-field component of signing Yamamoto — Japanese sponsors, new Japanese fans, etc. — than the Giants. And of course they need his on-field impact too.
1. New York Mets
When things went south this summer, the Mets smartly pivoted and sold at the trade deadline, leveraging owner Steve Cohen’s wealth to essentially buy prospects. They ate a lot of money to send away Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and others — Scherzer and Verlander are currently in line to be their second- and third-highest paid players in 2024, respectively — and quickly built up a strong farm system. That farm system is position-player heavy, however. Righty Christian Scott, their top pitching prospect, “has No. 3 starter upside,” according to Baseball America. The Mets lack impact pitching prospects and Kodai Senga is the only pitcher on the MLB roster who is a no-doubt keeper.
The Mets need long-term pitching more than anything and Yamamoto represents an opportunity to use Cohen’s immense wealth to simply buy the thing they need. Want a 25-year-old with ace potential? You usually either have to develop him yourself or give up your farm system to trade for him. Neither is required here. This is a straight cash transaction and there’s no reason Cohen should be outbid. Selling Yamamoto on the Mets over the iconic Yankees or star-laden Dodgers could prove difficult, but the Mets should not fall short with their contract offer. They badly need Yamamoto the pitcher and also everything he brings to the table as far as establishing the Mets as a team players want to join. He’s a sorely needed building block.
