Week 16 in the NFL got off to an early start with three games played before a short Christmas Eve slate. Fourteen teams will play on the national television stage thanks to the Christmas holiday, with plenty of games having an effect on the AFC and NFC playoff races.
The Saturday slate featured the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills heading to southern California to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Three of the four teams will be shaking up the AFC playoff picture, starting with Pittsburgh’s win over Cincinnati.
With the Saturday slate of games going on, it’s never too early for overreactions to either game.
Mason Rudolph should start for the Steelers for rest of year
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
The Steelers decided to go with Rudolph over Mitchell Trubisky as the starting quarterback this week while Kenny Pickett has been out with an ankle injury. Naturally, Rudolph goes 17 of 27 for 290 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions (124.0 rating) as the Steelers score 34 points in a blowout victory over the Bengals.
The 34 points for the Steelers were the most points in a game since Week 11 of the 2021 season and the Steelers haven’t scored 30 points in a win since the 2020 season. Pittsburgh averaged 13.7 points per game and 265.7 yards per game in its previous three games, all losses. The Steelers put up 34 points and 397 yards against the Bengals.
George Pickens actually looked like an elite receiver, catching four passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns — both touchdown catches over 60 yards. Rudolph had something to do with that right?
The Steelers aren’t going to bench Pickett when he returns, but they can “make sure he’s 100%.” Perhaps Rudolph gets another start while they figure things out.
Bengals playoff chances are dashed
Overreaction or Reality: Reality
The Bengals couldn’t afford to lose this game to a Steelers team that was reeling, and they did. Cincinnati’s margin for error was extremely tin heading into this game with the Chiefs and Browns closing out the season. Getting to 9-6 was the priority, no matter if the win was a blowout or ugly.
The Bengals sit at 8-7 with the Chiefs on the road and the Browns at home. Cincinnati is great outside the AFC North (8-2), but sit 0-5 in the division. This isn’t ruling the Bengals out — as they can win out — yet the conference record tiebreaker will significantly affect their playoff chances.
Cincinnati is 3-7 in the AFC, worse than Pittsburgh (6-5), Buffalo (5-5), Houston (5-4), and Indianapolis (6-4). Pittsburgh also has the head-to-head tiebreaker by sweeping Cincinnati.
Even if the Bengals get to 10-7, it may not be enough with the conference record tiebreaker in place. The Bengals blew a golden opportunity.
Bills are going to the playoffs
Overreaction or Reality: Reality
The only thing impressive about the Bills’ victory was that they win. At this point in the season, a win is all that matters. All of a sudden the Bills are the No. 6 seed in the AFC at 9-6, playing as good of football as anyone in the NFL at this moment.
Of course, the Colts and Texans have a tiebreaker over the Bills — yet the pressure is on both teams to win on Sunday. The Bills have two AFC East games left with the Patriots (home) and Dolphins (road). At worst, the Bills will be 10-7 with the Colts and Texans playing each other in Week 18 (so one will have seven losses if not for a tie). If the Bills do win out, they’ll have a playoff spot.
The way the Bills are playing — even in an ugly win — they appear destined for the postseason. Having the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans is significant at the moment as well.
