Detroit is headed in the wrong direction as we approach the halfway point
• 1 min read
The New Year has arrived, and the NHL season is really starting to pick up steam as the playoff races intensify. One team just trying to remain in that playoff picture is the Detroit Red Wings, who have had trouble keeping their head above water lately.
Since Patrick Kane made his debut on Dec. 7, the Red Wings have gone 4-9-1, which ranks 29th in that span. Those issues are not Kane’s fault, but Detroit has still been unable to generate scoring chances at five-on-five, even with him in the lineup. The team ranks 30th in xGF/60 over that span at 2.22.
Despite those lack of chances, the Wings have managed to be opportunistic offensively, so they’ve given themselves a chance. Where things have really faltered has been in net, where they’ve posted the worst five-on-five save percentage (87.7%) since Dec. 7. Goaltending has been an issue for Detroit for most of the season, but it is actively harming them now.
Earlier this season, the Red Wings appeared to be a team poised to make some noise in the Atlantic Division, but that has changed quickly. Due to underwhelming play at five-on-five, and lackluster goaltending, Detroit is falling rapidly in the Eastern Conference standings.
With the Red Wings headed in the wrong direction, here are the updated NHL Power Rankings.
All expected goals data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Biggest Movers
|
Rk |
Teams |
Chg |
Rcrd |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Jets |
Nino Niederreiter recently signed a three-year contract extension with the Jets, and it’s easy to see why they wanted to keep him around. Niederreiter has been exceptional this season with 12 goals and 10 assists in 36 games, but those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Niederreiter has some impressive five-on-five metrics, including a plus-13 goal differential, and he has been key to Winnipeg’s success without Kyle Connor in the lineup. | — | 23-9-4 |
| 2 |
Stars |
Don’t look now, but Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson are heating up toward dangerously high temperatures. That duo was tremendous for the Stars in December, combining for 12 goals and 31 points while working magic together. Hintz and Robertson have been good this season, but they are finally starting to play at their peak. Considering how deep the Stars are, that is a very scary thought for the Western Conference. | — | 22-10-4 |
| 3 |
Canucks |
Brock Boeser is a fascinating player for the Canucks this season. His 24 goals are five away from a career high, and he has found the perfect role for himself as the trigger man on the power play. His nine power play tallies are two away from a career high, but his five-on-five game raises a couple red flags. Vancouver has controlled just 42.9% of the expected goals with Boeser on the ice in those situations. That is one of the very worst marks on the team, which is bad news if the scoring does start to dry up a little. | — | 24-10-3 |
| 4 |
Rangers |
I’ve already written quite a bit about Artemi Panarin in these Power Rankings, and I’m just going to keep doing it. He loves scoring goals so much, and he couldn’t stop if he wanted to. Panarin has six goals in his last five games, including a hat trick against the Lightning on Saturday. His 23 goals have him tied for fourth in the NHL, and Panarin is on pace for roughly 53 goals, which would be a new career high by several miles. | — | 25-10-1 |
| 5 |
Avalanche |
Nathan MacKinnon is gunning for the first Hart Trophy of his career. MacKinnon is playing terrific hockey, and he is clearly the biggest driver of the Avalanche’s success recently. That’s not unusual, but he has had more support in recent years. Since Dec. 1, MacKinnon leads the NHL with 32 points (12 goals, 20 assists). It should also be noted that the Avs have a plus-11 goal differential with him in the game at five-on-five and a minus-1 goal differential without him. | 2 | 24-11-3 |
| 6 |
Bruins |
While we’re on the topic of the Hart Trophy conversation, David Pastrnak is making me look smart as my preseason pick for the award. (Please don’t look at my other award picks). Pastrnak has seven points in his last five games, and his 50 points are far and away the most on the team. That is especially important since Brad Marchand hasn’t been quite as good as normal this season. The Bruins need to make getting Pastrnak some more help a big priority ahead of the trade deadline. | 2 | 23-7-6 |
| 7 |
Panthers |
Matthew Tkachuk finally ended his nine-game goal drought on Tuesday night, and all it took was a Coyotes defenseman swatting the puck into his own net. I’m sure Tkachuk will take them however they come these days, and he has now pulled even with teammate Kevin Stenlund following his sixth goal of the season. Perhaps that bounce is exactly what Tkachuk needed to open the floodgates in the second half. | 5 | 23-12-2 |
| 8 |
Golden Knights |
Since Adin Hill went down with an injury, the Golden Knights’ goaltending has taken a notable step back. Since the start of December, Logan Thompson and Jiri Patera have combined to allow 5.29 goals above average. That is a far cry from the elite heights at which Hill was playing before the injury, and it’s also why the Golden Knights have looked like mere mortals in the last few weeks. | 3 | 22-11-5 |
| 9 |
Oilers |
The Oilers had a three-game losing streak from Dec. 14 to Dec. 19, and that is sandwiched between a seven-game winning streak and a six-game winning streak. Since Nov. 20, which is around when things started to turn for Edmonton, Connor McDavid has played 19 games, and he tallied multiple points in 12 of those games. He and Leon Draisaitl are just rolling right now, and the Oilers are flying up the standings. A few more wins might even have them back in the playoffs. | 6 | 19-15-1 |
| 10 |
Kings |
It’s probably time to have a conversation about Pierre-Luc Dubois. In his first 34 games as a member of the Kings, Dubois has just seven goals and seven assists, and he has just two goals and three assists in his last 15 games. That’s not exactly great from a player who just signed an eight-year, $68 million contract in the offseason. In fairness to Dubois, his five-on-five metrics are still solid, but the Kings need to get more actual production out of him to play at their peak. | 4 | 20-9-5 |
| 11 |
Hurricanes |
Like the Oilers, the Hurricanes seems to have gotten their act together recently too. The main reason for their uptick is the fact that Sebastian Aho has been sizzling recently, and his last four games are a perfect example. Aho has two goals and 10 assists over that span, and he is now on pace for 101 points. He has never even come close to that total, but if Aho can keep this up, the Hurricanes suddenly have a truly elite offensive weapon in their Stanley Cup quest. | 7 | 21-13-4 |
| 12 |
Flyers |
Carter Hart and Samuel Ersson have formed a rock solid goaltending tandem for the Flyers, and they have been splitting starts more frequently of late. In December, Ersson has played in eight games while Hart has seen action in six. In that span, they combined to save 7.21 goals above average. Consistency in goal has been a massive reason for Philadelphia’s unexpected success, and it will be interesting to see whether John Tortorella continues the even split for the rest of the season. | 3 | 19-13-5 |
| 13 |
Devils |
Perhaps no team needs a goaltending upgrade more than the Devils. They rank dead last in the NHL with a team save percentage of 87.9%, and that is despite ranking 13th in xGA/60 at 3.04. The team is playing well enough to battle for a Metro Division title, but the goaltending continues to cough up winnable games. Vitek Vanecek has been especially bad with a -11.9 goals saved above average that ranks 82nd among all goalies. | 4 | 19-14-2 |
| 14 |
Maple Leafs |
The Toronto goaltending situation is in absolute shambles these days. Joseph Woll is injured, and the Leafs just sent down Ilya Samsonov after he allowed six goals on 1.63 expected goals against in an overtime loss to the Blue Jackets. Now, the team is riding with Martin Jones, who Toronto waived ahead of the season. To be fair, Jones did just post a shutout against the Kings on Tuesday. | 4 | 18-10-7 |
| 15 |
Predators |
Gustav Nyquist has proven to be a nice addition for the Predators. The veteran winger is riding a six-game point streak after notching a goal and an assist against the Blackhawks on Tuesday, and he is on pace for 62 points. That would be a new career high for the 34-year-old winger, who has really taken to playing alongside Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg in Nashville. | 1 | 21-16-1 |
| 16 |
Coyotes |
Connor Ingram might be a dark horse candidate for the Vezina Trophy. He has given the Coyote a true No. 1 goaltender with a .919 save percentage, 10.1 goals saved above average and four shutouts in his 22 games. As entertaining as Arizona’s young lineup is, it does make its share of mistakes, and Ingram has been there to bail out his teammates more often than not. | 3 | 19-15-2 |
| 17 |
Islanders |
Simon Holmstrom has 11 goals on the season and five of them have come while shorthanded. That leads the NHL, and the former first-round pick has developed a knack for countering while his team is a man down. If Holmstrom can ever find a way to take that attacking mentality and put it to use at even strength, he will be quite a weapon for the Islanders. | 6 | 17-10-10 |
| 18 |
Wild |
Marc-Andre Fleury recently played in his 1,000th NHL game, which is quite the feat for a goaltender. Fleury’s longevity has been something to witness, but unfortunately for the Wild, that is all they’ve been able to celebrate in recent days. They have now dropped three in a row, and they have plateaued after a great start under new head coach John Hynes. | 5 | 16-16-4 |
| 19 |
Lightning |
Andrei Vasilevskiy is clearly still working his way back to full strength these days because he is not the human forcefield we’re used to seeing in the Tampa crease. Since returning from offseason back surgery, Vasilevskiy has a save percentage of .912 and is ever so slightly on the wrong side of goals saved above average at -0.59. Then again, it doesn’t help that the Bolts are surrendering expected goals at one of the highest rates in the NHL. | 3 | 18-16-5 |
| 20 |
Penguins |
Jake Guentzel is probably one of the more underrated players in the NHL because he plays alongside Sidney Crosby, but he has no problem keeping up. This season, Guentzel has even taken things up a notch and leads the Pens in assists (25) and points (42). He is tracking for 38 goals and 70 assists as a pending free agent. Guentzel is about to get a pile of cash next summer. | 3 | 18-14-4 |
| 21 |
Kraken |
Just last week, I said the Kraken were a longshot to make the playoffs in the West. That may still be the case, but I’m already nervous about declaring that before New Year’s Day. Seattle has won five straight games, including an impressive 3-0 win over the Golden Knights in the Winter Classic. The Kraken have worked their way back above .500, and they are in the thick of a logjam for the two wild card spots in the West. | 5 | 15-14-9 |
| 22 |
Flames |
Blake Coleman has four goals in his last four games, and he is eight away from his career high of 22. The 32-year-old has found something of a scoring touch this season, which is good for Calgary because he is one of only a few players finding the back of the net with any regularity. The only two other Flames on track to hit 20 goals this season are Nazem Kadri (11) and Yegor Sharangovich (10). Calgary has decent scoring balance, but no one it can really count on to generate offense consistently. | 2 | 16-16-5 |
| 23 |
Capitals |
Anthony Mantha has been one of the more positive stories for the Capitals this season. From 2017-2019, Mantha scored 49 goals as a relatively young player with the Red Wings. Unfortunately, Mantha has had trouble staying healthy since then, and he hasn’t scored more than 16 in a single season since. It looks like he should be able to pass that mark easily and get back to the 20-goal mark for the first time in five years. | 3 | 18-11-6 |
| 24 |
Blues |
Colton Parayko has more been on the ice for almost 720 minutes at five-on-five, which is 46 more than any of his Blues teammates. Those minutes have not gone well this season: St. Louis has controlled 45.2% of the expected goals and just 39.3% of the actual goals. In fairness to Parayko, none of the St. Louis defensemen have strong five-on-five impacts. He’s just the clearest example of the team’s struggles. | 3 | 18-17-1 |
| 25 |
Canadiens |
Cole Caufield has broken out of a scoring slump by lighting the lamp in three consecutive games. This recent scoring burst has put him on pace for 24 goals this season, which would be on par with his past two seasons. Where Caufield has improved this year has been in his playmaking ability. His 16 assists are just four away from a career high, so he is finding other ways to make an impact. | 3 | 16-16-5 |
| 26 |
Red Wings |
Detroit is 4-9-1 since Patrick Kane made his debut on Dec. 7, but the team’s struggles are not his fault. Kane has looked much healthier, and he has already reforged a connection with Alex DeBrincat. In his first 14 games with the Wings, Kane has six goals and seven assists. He’s actually been one of the few bright spots in the last few weeks. | 1 | 18-16-4 |
| 27 |
Senators |
Tim Stützle has been incredibly snake-bitten this season with just seven goals in 33 games. That total is 3.6 goals fewer than his 10.6 expected goals on the year, and Stützle’s 7.4% shooting percentage is 5.7% below his career average and almost 10.0% below what he shot in 2022-23. It’s just been that kind of year in Ottawa, and the goaltending hasn’t provided any kind of safety net when the offense has gone cold. | 1 | 14-19-0 |
| 28 |
Sabres |
It has been a disappointing season in Buffalo, but especially for Dylan Cozens, who finally looked like he had established himself as a budding star with 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23. Cozens has just six goals and 20 points through 36 games this year, and he has not been able to get in any kind of groove while shooting 6.3%. We’ll see if he can get it going in the second half of the season. | 1 | 15-19-4 |
| 29 |
Blue Jackets |
Adam Fantilli is starting to find a bit of a rhythm again, and he had a very strong December with six goals and six assists in 13 games. He’s now on pace for a 20-goal rookie season, which considering the lack of talent around him in Columbus, is pretty impressive. Now the Jackets just need some of their other young prospects to start getting more comfortable at the NHL level. | — | 12-19-8 |
| 30 |
Ducks |
John Gibson had a nice start to the 2023-24 season, but he is once again struggling to tread water behind one of the worst defensive environments in the NHL. It’s fair to wonder how much time Gibson left in Anaheim because he has spent the last several seasons languishing behind porous defenses, and I’d be interested to see how much he improves on a team with better structure. | 1 | 13-23-0 |
| 31 |
Blackhawks |
Chicago is 4-9-2 with a minus-26 goal differential over the last month. When Connor Bedard isn’t on the ice, the product is borderline unwatchable. The Blackhawks cannot possibly be rewarded for subjecting us to this level of hockey for a second straight season. Please don’t let Macklin Celebrini wind up in Chicago, Mr. Gary Bettman. | 1 | 11-24-2 |
| 32 |
Sharks |
The Sharks have now lost nine straight games, and in case you were wondering, none of those came in overtime or a shootout. They have captured exactly zero of a possible 18 points in that span. That’s shockingly bad, but there is a tiny piece of good news. Mikael Granlund has 15 points in his last 14 games, so that’s something. Could San Jose find a trade partner for him in the coming months? Probably not, but dare to dream. | — | 9-26-3 |
