Arsenal seemed to have every advantage as they approached the late stages of their FA Cup third-round tie with Liverpool, which was scoreless with 10 minutes on the clock. Both advantage and the shot count benefitted the Gunners, and technically so did the quality of their chances in front of goal. Because they had nothing to show for it, though, Liverpool’s somewhat fortuitous ability to score twice — once from Jakub Kiwior’s 80th-minute own goal and then from Luis Diaz’s stoppage-time strike — meant Arsenal were knocked out of the FA Cup on Sunday, 2-0.
Mikel Arteta’s side were dominant in possession from the start and quickly responded by racking up shots. By halftime, they had 13 shots, five on target and 1.85 expected goals, an impressive return on its own but especially when considering the output of a rotated Liverpool side. The visitors posted just two shots, neither of which were on goal, and just 0.31 expected goals, truly exemplifying that the match was in Arsenal’s grasp and that all their performance required at that point was a goal that would reflect their efforts.
That goal never came, though it was not because the game state dramatically changed for the second 45 minutes. Liverpool did improve — they took 10 shots in the second half, but only put three on target and mustered 0.67 expected goals by the game’s end. Though Arsenal’s 1.61 expected goals were still superior to Liverpool’s tally, the Gunners posted just five shots in the second half and not a single one landed on target. They clearly faded despite boasting the advantage throughout, which is starting to become a worrying pattern for Arsenal.
After establishing themselves as a Premier League title contender in the first few months of the season, Arsenal have slipped to fourth place after posting just one win in their last seven matches in all competitions. The FA Cup loss to Liverpool almost perfectly encapsulates their recent form, too. They notched 10-plus shots in each of their last seven and outshot their opponents on all but one occasion — the 2-1 loss to Fulham on New Year’s Eve serving as the lone exception — but came out victorious just once in a 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion on Dec. 17.
Their season started off on a bright attacking note. Before this seven-match run, they had the second-most goals in the league with 33, ranked third for shots with 231 and sixth for shots on goal with 83. They had ultimately overperformed their expected goals tally of 28.29, sixth best in the league at the time, which teased that Arsenal’s hot scoring streak would level out at some point. Their current form, though, is well below whatever one might have imagined their true attacking output would look like.
They have scored just four goals in five league games, just one better than Brentford, who sit last in this category since Dec. 9 with three goals. This is despite the fact that they have not regressed entirely in terms of attacking output — they rank second in the league for shots with 99 and fifth for shots on target with 27 and are still sixth with 8.88 expected goals. They are now dramatically underperforming their expected goals score and went from a 35.9% shots on goal percentage to an unimpressive 28.7% in the last five games.
They are down to just 0.8 goals per game after posting 2.23 goals per game before Dec. 9, surprisingly despite the fact that their shots per game are up — they were previously at 15.4 shots per 90 but increased that figure to 18.8 shots per 90 during their last five league games.
The poor form comes at an inopportune moment in the title race. While Liverpool continue to find ways to win on imperfect days, Manchester City are mounting their comeback after a perfect run since lifting the Club World Cup just before Christmas. The reigning champions’ injury crisis seems to be letting off, too — Kevin de Bruyne made his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury this week and Jeremy Doku also made a comeback during their 5-0 win over Huddersfield Town on Sunday. Arteta also continues to insist that his side are stuck with the attacking options they have and will not add to their squad during the January transfer window.
The recent run of form suggests that, much like they did against Liverpool on Sunday, their title hopes might fade away at roughly the midpoint of the season. There is plenty of promise from Arsenal’s title run last season and their form early in this campaign, and it is entirely possible that they have it in them to turn things around. The constant complaints surrounding some of Arsenal’s attacking talent, though, suggests that the Gunners might still be a few signings away from the Premier League title, ultimately making it an unrealistic New Year’s aspiration.
