We’re down to the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season, and the notion of “any given Sunday” couldn’t be more in play. Some contenders are prepared to rest key starters. Others are fighting for postseason seeding. And that’s not even accounting for potential upsets by late-year spoilers. How, then, can you be sure to wager on the right players and teams in Week 18?
As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in, starting with Saturday’s three games.
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 18? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks.
Saturday’s games
Texans at Colts
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Colts -1.5, O/U 46.5
“It feels like this game is going to come down to how well Gardner Minshew plays. He’ll be going up against a Texans defense that’s surrendered the seventh-most pass yards in the NFL this year. Minshew took advantage of that in Week 3 in a Colts win over the Texans where he completed 82.6% of his passes. That was actually the game where Anthony Richardson went down, which set the stage for Minshew to become the starter for the rest of the season. The Colts are 6-0 this season when Minshew doesn’t throw an interception, so if he can dice up the Texans’ secondary while playing smart football, then you have to like Indy’s chances.”
CBS Sports’ John Breech likes the home team to prevail in a close one here. Find all his Week 18 picks right here.
Sunday’s games
Browns at Bengals
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bengals -3.5, O/U 36.5
“I was interested in Cincy (as a bet) because I don’t think P.J. Walker is good enough to even execute against this defense. Now that it’s Jeff Driskel starting for the Browns, I’m a little interested in Cleveland, oddly enough. If you’re keeping this a low-scoring game, you’re up against the Bengals, who just got eliminated; this could be a letdown spot for them, being ready for the offseason. So I wanna wait to see where the line ends, but even at +7, with Jeff Driskel at quarterback, I like Cleveland.”
SportsLine expert R.J. White doesn’t think the Browns should be counted out even with Joe Flacco resting for the playoffs. Catch more of his analysis, plus other Week 18 bets, on the “Pick Six NFL Podcast.”
Vikings at Lions
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -3.5, O/U 44
The SportsLine projection model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and it’s up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on a 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season. We can tell you the model backs one of these NFC North rivals in almost 60% of simulations, but you’ll have to head over to SportsLine to get the full ATS breakdown and prediction.
Jaguars at Titans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Jaguars -3, O/U 41
“The Titans are 0-5 ATS and 0-5 SU vs. divisional opponents this year, are coming off of a matchup in which they scored just three points and recorded 187 yards of total offense and quarterback Will Levis is banged up. Sure, Mike Vrabel could rally the troops and play spoiler, but the Jags need this win to clinch the division. It’s a big deal. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury, but I fully expect him to suit up. The Titans and Jags last played back in November, with Jacksonville winning, 34-14. The game was never close, as the Jags scored the first 27 points of the game.”
Resident Titans expert Jordan Dajani doesn’t buy Tennessee as a Week 18 spoiler. Check out all his ATS analysis right here.
Jets at Patriots
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Patriots -1.5, O/U 35
“This could very well be the last game Bill Belichick coaches for the New England Patriots and it’s hard to imagine that the players aren’t aware of that possibility. With that in mind, I can’t fathom this Patriots team rolling over in a game that has historical significance, even if they are eliminated from playoff contention. New England has won 15 straight games against the Jets and 12 straight at home. The Jets offense continues to look lost and is last in the league on third down and in the red zone, so there is no real threat of this unit raining on Belichick’s parade. New England has also been solid against the number over the last month, owning a 3-0-1 ATS record after starting the year 2-10 ATS.”
Resident Patriots expert Tyler Sullivan believes New England will extend its dominance over the Jets. Find his full breakdown, plus all his Week 18 picks right here.
Falcons at Saints
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Saints -3, O/U 42
SportsLine’s simulation model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Now, it’s simulated every snap of Week 18 and revealed its best parlay picks, including for a five-team wager with a potential 25-1 payout. One part of the five-team parlay: New Orleans covers in well over 50% of simulations, making it one of the model’s strongest Week 18 picks. Learn more right here.
Buccaneers at Panthers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Buccaneers -4, O/U 37
“The Buccaneers were upset by the rival New Orleans Saints last week, and need a win against Carolina to clinch the division. The Panthers are coming off of a deflating 26-0 loss to the Jaguars, and surely are excited to finish out the season. Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS on the road this season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL.” That’s CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani, who expects the Bucs to rebound and make the playoffs. Check out all his Week 18 picks right here.
Bears at Packers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Packers -2.5, O/U 43.5
SportsLine’s simulation model is on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season, and now the computers are projecting a decisive victory from the playoff contender in this matchup. One of the model’s strongest Week 18 bets is that the Packers (-3) cover at home against Chicago in a clinching scenario. The model is also backing the Over (44) in this one. Catch a full breakdown of the game, plus forecasts for every Week 18 contest, right here.
Broncos at Raiders
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Broncos -1, O/U 37.5
“It’s pretty shocking that Antonio Pierce hasn’t been given the Raiders job already, but it makes sense with what we know about Jim Harbaugh’s desire to return to the NFL coupled with him hiring Don Yee (Tom Brady’s agent, plus Jimmy Garoppolo’s agent, so there are tons of ties to the Raiders in terms of previously positive negotiations). Mark Davis loves a splash hire and Harbs would qualify, especially if he won the natty for Michigan and then jumped back to the NFL. Regardless, we get a team in Las Vegas looking to really make a final push for the interim coach they want hired full-time against a team in Denver that might be phoning it in a bit with Jarrett Stidham having taken over for Russell Wilson and the Broncos fully eliminated from postseason contention.”
CBS Sports’ Will Brinson likes Vegas to pull one out at home. Check out all his Week 18 best bets right here.
Eagles at Giants
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Eagles -7, O/U 45
There’s so much variance in games with nothing really on the line. So, much like we did when sorting through the opening lines, we’re drilling down on games where things are at stake and there is a competitive purpose for both clubs, even if only in a spoiler capacity against a primary rival. Before you make your Week 18 picks, you’ll want to see what NFL expert Jason La Canfora has to say. La Canfora has broken down the entire slate and found a number of best bets, including a wager on this NFC East rematch.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Seahawks -3, O/U 46.5
“The Cardinals are coming off their Super Bowl, beating the Eagles outright in Philadelphia to really ruin Jonathan Gannon’s old team’s season. The Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives — they’re in with a win and the Bears beating the Packers. I think Chicago is going to keep it close with Green Bay in that game because the Packers defense isn’t likely to close anyone out. Which means the Seahawks are very likely to keep their foot on the gas offensively and defensively throughout the entirety of this game. Even if Seattle is scoreboard watching — and they won’t likely be getting any updates until later in the game, if at all — Pete Carroll won’t let his team stop trying to compete. The Seahawks’ motivation factor here is just too high to ignore.”
CBS Sports’ Will Brinson doesn’t buy Arizona making it two straight. Catch all his Week 18 predictions right here.
Chiefs at Chargers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs -3, O/U 36
“The Chiefs are in the playoffs, so they will play next week. So who plays this week? Blaine Gabbert is set to go in place of Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers, meanwhile, are heading to an offseason of change, but with Easton Stick playing here it won’t matter who plays for the Chiefs. They still win it.”
That’s CBS Sports senior columnist Pete Prisco, who’s betting on Kansas City despite the lineup changes in this Week 18 AFC West rematch. Catch all of Prisco’s predictions right here.
R.J. White has delivered a 56.5% hit rate on his Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, and that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017. This week R.J.’s backing the Chiefs as one of his five contest picks.
“The main reason I’m trusting the Chiefs backups is that I’ve seen who’s playing on the other side of the ball. The Chargers have scored one offensive TD outside of garbage time in Easton Stick’s three starts, and that came after they were set up inside their opponent’s 30-yard line following an interception. Even if he has Joshua Palmer back for this game, I can’t see the Chargers putting up a bunch of points, and the Chiefs may only need 14-17 points to cover the number. That certainly seems doable, even for their backups.”
You can read more about his Chiefs pick and all of R.J.’s Week 18 contest picks right here.
Rams at 49ers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: 49ers -3, O/U 44.5
“The Rams have already clinched a playoff spot, so this game only matters for seeding purposes. If they win, they’ll lock up the sixth seed, but if they lose, they could end up as the seventh seed, although there’s a chance that they could get the sixth seed anyway with a loss. … I’m going to say the Rams mail this one in and the 49ers will coast to an easy win, even though they won’t have Christian McCaffrey on the field.”
That’s CBS Sports’ John Breech, who likes San Francisco as Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz get the starts under center as both contenders rest key starters. Catch all of Breech’s Week 18 picks right here.
Cowboys at Commanders
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Cowboys -13, O/U 48
“The Cowboys are far and away the better team and need this game to secure the NFC East. Translation: there’s going to be no letup from Mike McCarthy’s team. They’ll travel to FedEx Field, which has been a house of horrors for the Commanders so far this season. They have yet to record an ATS win at home, owning a 0-6-1 ATS record. They also have just a single ATS win against the division this year. Dak Prescott has also dominated against Washington throughout his career. The Dallas QB is 10-2 SU, completes 65% of his passes, averages 7.7 yards per attempt, and has 23 touchdowns to just four picks. This shouldn’t be close against a secondary that is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt at home this season, the worst in the NFL.”
Ron Rivera may look for Washington to make a last stand in his defense, but CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan doesn’t believe it’ll stop Dallas from running away with this one. Check out all of Sully’s Week 18 predictions right here.
Bills at Dolphins
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Dolphins -1.5, O/U 49
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-43-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-4 record the last six weeks. Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins. He is 27-17-1 (+804) on his last 45 picks in games involving Miami. We can tell you he’s leaning Under on the total, but you’ll wanna head over to SportsLine for his complete ATS prediction.
