The Chicago Cubs made the offseason’s first major move when they shockingly signed manager Craig Counsell away from the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers (and fired incumbent manager David Ross to do it). They gave Counsell a record contract for a manager too. It was not until this week that the Cubs made their second move of the offseason, major or otherwise.
On Tuesday night, Chicago agreed to a deal with Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga on a contract that has been described as “complicated.” The deal is not yet official but it will be soon — Imanaga’s 45-day posting window closes at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 11. The 30-year-old had a 2.66 ERA with 188 strikeouts in 159 innings with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in 2023.
Once the Imanaga contract is complete, Counsell’s rotation will line up something like this:
- LHP Justin Steele
- RHP Kyle Hendricks
- RHP Jameson Taillon
- LHP Shota Imanaga
- LHP Jordan Wicks
- RHP Javier Assad
That’s a very strong 1-4 with a high-end youngster in the No. 5 spot. Chicago maybe lacks a true No. 1 — Steele was excellent last season though I’d stop short of calling him an ace — but every night they’ll send someone out to the mound capable of giving them a good outing. There is no glaring weak spot in that rotation.
Counsell was Step 1 this offseason and Imanaga was Step 2, but more steps are required to put the Cubs in the best position to win a winnable NL Central in 2024, or at least return to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018. Here’s what remains on the to-do list for the Cubbies and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer.
1. Add a bat
Cody Bellinger, who finished tenth in the NL MVP last year, remains unsigned as a free agent. Even with Bellinger last season, the Cubs were short a bat, most glaringly at first base. By the end of the season, Bellinger was playing first base and Mike Tauchman had taken over as the everyday center fielder because that alignment gave the club the best chance to win.
Look at Chicago’s first base production in 2023:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bellinger as 1B |
200 |
.267/.310/.467 |
9 |
36 |
+0.6 |
|
All others at 1B |
443 |
.229/.293/.391 |
13 |
54 |
-0.6 |
|
Total |
643 |
.241/.299/.414 |
22 |
90 |
0.0 |
Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis were among those to cycle through the first base position last season and yeah, that’s not going to cut it. Mervis has put up some huge numbers in the minors, though his swing-and-miss issues got exposed a bit during his MLB debut. I’m not sure Chicago wants to count on him at first base in 2024.
The easiest solution is re-signing Bellinger. It’ll cost a lot, no doubt, but he’s only 28 and he thrived with the Cubs last year. Reuniting seems like a wise move for both the Cubs and Bellinger. His ability to play center field and first base would also give the club flexibility to improve the rest of the roster, which they may need in order to address the second item on our offseason to-do list.
2. Add another bat
Yep, the Cubs really should add two bats between today and spring training. They needed another bat even last year with Bellinger. Hoyer & Co. addressed that need with Jeimer Candelario at the deadline, who was fine, and has since signed a free-agent contract with the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds. Point is, the Cubbies could use more offense even if they re-sign Bellinger.
Third base is a position that can be upgraded, potentially. The two incumbents — Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom — are polar opposites. Madrigal is all contact and defense. Wisdom mashes taters. If the Cubs could combine their skills into one player, they’d have an All-Star. Maybe even an MVP candidate. Instead, they’re two separate and very different players.
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLH | HR | RBI | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Madrigal |
294 |
.263/.311/.352 |
2 |
28 |
+0.9 |
|
Wisdom |
302 |
.205/.289/.500 |
23 |
46 |
+0.7 |
Matt Chapman remains unsigned, and while he’s a flawed player with swing-and-miss concerns, he’s better than both Madrigal and Wisdom, and would be a significant upgrade at the hot corner. Bellinger and Chapman on top of Counsell and Imanaga would make for an A+ offseason, I’d say.
Would ownership stretch payroll enough to sign Bellinger and Chapman though? It seems unlikely. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Chicago has $199.8 million on the books for competitive balance tax purposes, including Imanaga and arbitration projections. They had a $230 million payroll for CBT purposes last year and the threshold is $237 million in 2024. Bellinger and Chapman would push the club into the $250 million range and I’m not sure that’ll happen.
Regardless, the Cubs need to add offense, and ideally at two positions. First and third bases are the most obvious spots they can upgrade. If it’s not Bellinger and Chapman, then maybe it’s Rhys Hoskins and Gio Urshela. Or Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. At minimum, Hoyer needs to re-sign or replace Bellinger, and he really needs to add more offense on top of that.
3. Reinforce the bullpen
This applies to every team. Every single club could stand to improve its bullpen, especially teams on the postseason bubble like Chicago. Every win they add to their ledger right now massively improves their postseason odds. Chicago’s bullpen currently looks something like this:
- Closer: RHP Adbert Alzolay
- Setup: RHP Julian Merryweather
- Middle: RHP Jose Cuas, RHP Mark Leiter Jr., LHP Luke Little, RHP Keegan Thompson
- Long: RHP Javier Assad, LHP Drew Smyly
There are more pressing needs (i.e. offense), but gosh, wouldn’t Josh Hader look great in that bullpen? Slot him in at closer, bump Alzolay and Merryweather down a rung on the depth chart, and suddenly that’s a formidable bullpen with multiple bat-missers for high leverage situations. I’m not sure the Cubs are willing to give Hader the record contract he wants, but he’s out there.
There are plenty of other quality relievers who can be had at something well south of Hader money, should the Cubs choose to go in that direction. Ryan Brasier and David Robertson can presumably be had on one-year contracts, Phil Maton is a sneaky great option, and others like Collin McHugh, Keynan Middleton, and Matt Moore would strengthen the middle of the relief unit.
Now that they’ve landed Imanaga, the Cubs figure to shift their attention to the offense, particularly re-signing or replacing Bellinger. They could use multiple bats, really, and like every other team, they could stand to upgrade the bullpen. Chicago missed the postseason by one stinkin’ game last season and they have a strong foundation in place. The roster could use a little more work though. Counsell and Imanaga figure to be the start of the offseason for the Cubs, not the offseason.
