Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Prisco’s NFL playoff picks for divisional round: 2 underdogs win outright while a third nearly shocks top seed

Playoff Pete is back.

Yep, I had a nice start to the postseason. I went 5-1 against the spread, but 3-3 straight up. I’ll take it.

The only ATS loss I had wasn’t close. I had the Cleveland Browns beating the Houston Texans, which never had a chance.

The ATS week brings my season record to 139-128-11. My straight-up record is now 171-107-0.

This week, I am going with the dogs. I like three underdogs and two to win their games outright. Let’s keep it going. Playoff Pete is looking for a sweep.

Houston Texans (+9) at Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

The Texans are coming off an impressive home victory over the Browns, while the Ravens are coming off a bye. The rest could be good for the Ravens, but the starters haven’t played in three weeks. That might matter. This will be the first road playoff game for Texans rookie passer C.J. Stroud, which can be a challenge. It can be even tougher against the Ravens stout defense. They will throw a bunch of different looks at Stroud. How he handles those will be key. Lamar Jackson will be the league MVP, but he has to go out and show he can do it in a playoff game. The pressure is on. But I think in this offense he will respond. Look for a lot of points as both quarterbacks play well, but the Ravens will win a close one behind Jackson.  

Pick: Ravens 30, Texans 29

Green Bay Packers (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Packers really looked good in beating up the Cowboys last week on the road. Winning a second straight road game against the NFC’s best team won’t be easy. The 49ers will be rested coming off the bye. Will there be rust? Jordan Love has been special the last eight weeks and showed up in a big way last week against the Cowboys. I think that carries over. The 49ers defensive front is tough, but the Packers offensive line is playing well. If you block them, you beat them. The Packers will have a big day throwing it. The 49ers will score as well, as Brock Purdy also has a big day. This will be a shootout. In the end, I am calling for the upset. The Packers pull off a stunner. 

Pick: Packers 33, 49ers 31

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in the divisional round.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

Both these teams are coming off big home victories, with the Lions earning another home game. The Bucs blew out the Eagles as Baker Mayfield came up big. The Lions had to hold on against the Rams. Detroit played well on offense, but the defense showed some flaws. That could lead to another good day by Mayfield and his receivers. I think Jared Goff will also play well, especially if he can handle the Bucs blitz. Ben Johnson will have a plan for that. The Lions beat the Bucs earlier this season in Tampa, but it was close. This will also be close, but I think this time Tampa Bay gets payback and advances to the title game. Mayfield will keep it rolling. Upset. 

Pick: Bucs 30, Lions 28

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is the game of the week between two teams that have met in recent years, but this game is a Bills home game. That means Patrick Mahomes will be playing the first road playoff game in his career. It sure doesn’t come in an easy place to play. The Bills have rolled into the playoffs, needing to win every game down the stretch, but they have some major defensive injuries. The Chiefs offense showed well last week against Miami, so that could be a problem. Josh Allen has to limit his mistakes, which he did in the victory over the Steelers. I think he does here as the Bills beat the Chiefs to advance to the AFC championship game. 

Pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 23

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