We have reached the end of the road: Super Bowl LVIII. By this time next week, a champion will be crowned and legendary résumés will be forged into the NFL history books. Either Patrick Mahomes will claim his third Super Bowl title with the Chiefs or Brock Purdy will lead the 49ers to a championship for the first time since the 1994 season. And we have you covered every step of the way.
As we’ve done throughout the year, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for the game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in the Super Bowl? And which team goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Nickelodeon), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: 49ers -2, O/U 47.5
Micah Roberts’ pick
SportsLine’s Micah Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for 20-plus years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos’ book director. He is 19-12-2 over his last 33 NFL picks, for a profit of $558. He’s also 22-5 on his last 27 ATS picks involving the 49ers, so you’ll certainly want to see which way he is leaning for the Super Bowl. We can tell you he’s leaning Under on the total, but to see his ATS pick you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
Tyler Sullivan’s pick
“While the Niners are certainly a talented club, it just feels like more of the advantages lean in the Chiefs favor. They have the better defense, quarterback, and coach in my estimation. Kansas City is battle-tested winning back-to-back playoff games on the road, while the Niners have needed to dig themselves out of holes playing at home. On a neutral site and a stage that Kansas City is very familiar with over the past few seasons — Allegiant Stadium, home of the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders — it just seems like there will be more obstacles in the way of San Fran.
“I believe the key to this game will come down to whether or not the 49ers linebackers (particularly Fred Warner) can help defend against Travis Kelce, who has been the lifeblood of the offense over the last two playoff wins. While San Francisco gave up the seventh fewest yards per reception and second fewest yards after the catch per reception to tight ends this year, Kelce has historically destroyed this defense. Mahomes is 20 of 24 for 255 yards and a touchdown when targeting Kelce in the three games he’s played against the Niners in his career.
“I’m also actually kind of surprised that K.C. is an underdog in this head-to-head, but that plays into our hands as the underdog has covered the last three Super Bowls and 15 of the past 22. Mahomes is also 9-0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog away from Kansas City and is 3-0 straight-up in his career as an underdog in the playoffs. As for the coaching head-to-head, Andy Reid is 3-0 ATS and SU against Kyle Shanahan and all of those victories have been by double digits.” — CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Chiefs to cover and win outright, 24-20.
Jason La Canfora’s pick
SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora has covered the league for more than two decades for CBS Sports, The Washington Post and the NFL Network, among other outlets. He comes into Super Bowl LVIII on a red-hot pace, owning a 52-27 (+2202) on his last 79 NFL picks. We can tell you he’s leaning Over the total, but to see his spread pick you have to check out SportsLine.
John Breech’s pick
“If Kyle Shanahan has nightmares every day this week, you can’t really blame him and that’s mostly because no one has worse luck in the Super Bowl than him. The 49ers coach has been to the Super Bowl twice and both trips have ended in absolute disaster.
- Trip 1: Shanahan’s first trip came in 2016 with the Falcons and his week got off to a rough start when he lost his backpack, which contained Atlanta’s offensive game plan and $30,000 worth of Super Bowl tickets. Oh, and his team also blew a 28-3 lead in the game.
- Trip 2: Shanahan’s second trip to the Super Bowl came four years ago and things were actually going well, but then his team blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs in a 31-20 loss. That blown lead is tied for the second-biggest blown lead in Super Bowl history behind only … OK, you know what, I’m not even going to mention it again. I think you get the point.
“The only way Shanahan will be able to put those nightmares behind him is if the 49ers actually win and to do that, all he has to do is figure out a way to stop the best quarterback in the NFL: Patrick Mahomes.
“And then even if he slows down Mahomes, he still has to draw up an offensive game plan that will allow his team to move the ball on the Chiefs defense, which has been one of the best in the NFL this year. Not only did the Chiefs rack up the second-most sacks in the league in 2023 (57), but it also gave up the fourth-fewest passing yards.
“If the 49ers are going to win, they’re likely going to need a huge game from Christian McCaffrey. If the Chiefs defense has one weakness, it’s the ability to stop the run. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs went 7-6 this season in games where they surrendered 110 yards or more on the ground. When they held their opponent to under 110 yards, they went 7-0. The Chiefs are almost always going to shut down the pass and if they also shut down the run, they’re probably going to win.
“The Chiefs defense will go into this game knowing it needs to do two things: Stop McCaffrey and force Brock Purdy to make mistakes.
“Purdy had five games this year where he was sacked multiple times while also throwing at least one interception and the 49ers went 2-3 in those games, with all three losses coming to AFC teams (Browns, Ravens, Bengals). If the Chiefs can get pressure on Purdy and force him to make mistakes, they should be able to win.
“The problem for the Chiefs is that if you’re going to put pressure on Purdy, you can’t do it by blitzing him or he’ll destroy you.
“If the Chiefs can get pressure without blitzing or if they can confuse Purdy with exotic blitzes, the defense might be able to slow him down. And if anyone can come up with a defense to slow down Purdy, it’s Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo, who is having one hell of a postseason.
“Despite going up against Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa, the Chiefs have only surrendered 13.7 points per game this postseason, which ranks as the fourth-best showing in NFL playoff history. The 2000 Ravens are at the top of the list for fewest points allowed per game in the playoffs, but they had the luxury of facing quarterbacks like Gus Frerotte and Kerry Collins.
“The Chiefs defense has been great this postseason because every game plan Spagnulo has come up with has been a work of art. Imagine if Da Vinci had three Mona Lisas, that’s what Spagnulo has done so far in the playoffs. Spagnulo confused Lamar Jackson in the AFC title game with 20 DIFFERENT blitzes, including 12 that came from defensive backs, and now, he gets to go up against a second-year QB in Purdy. As everyone knows, second-year quarterbacks are notoriously easy to confuse.
“If Shanahan comes up with a game plan that can move the ball on the Chiefs defense, then the 49ers will certainly be in a good spot, but to win the game, they’ll still have to figure out a way to stop Mahomes, which, well, good luck with that. The 49ers defense forgot to show up for the first half of both playoff games this year and if that happens again, Mahomes might have this game out of reach by halftime.
“The other thing about the 49ers defense is that they haven’t been able to stop the run in the playoffs. The 49ers only surrendered more than 130 yards rushing four times this year and two of those came in the postseason. If the Chiefs get their rushing attack going, it’s hard to imagine them losing. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs are 15-2 over the past two seasons in any game where they rush for at least 100 yards and Mahomes throws for at least 200 yards and I feel like we’re going to see both of those numbers get hit.
“This Super Bowl is giving me a serious case of deja vu:
- We’re getting a rematch from four years ago
- We have the same referee as four years ago (Bill Vinovich)
- We have the same two head coaches, marking just the fourth time in NFL history that we’ve had a coaching rematch in the Super Bowl (The coach that lost the first game has never won the second game)
- And Brock Purdy has a career record of 21-5, which is the same exact career record that Jimmy Garoppolo had in 26 starts with the 49ers going into Super Bowl LIV with the Chiefs
“Since history always tends to repeat itself, I’ve decided I can’t pick against history here. If the Chiefs win, though, let’s just hope that history doesn’t keep repeating itself, because the last time they beat the 49ers, we got a global pandemic one month later.” — CBS Sports’ John Breech on why he has the Chiefs pulling out a 31-20 win over San Francisco.
Alex Selesnick’s pick
SportsLine’s props expert Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. Currently, he is on a stunning 70-51 streak on his NFL props picks for SportsLine, for a profit of $764 for $100 bettors. For this Super Bowl, PropStarz is looking at Brock Purdy going under his 261.5 passing/rushing yards prop. He’s also locked into several Super Bowl prop picks, including a wide receiver who also could have a rough night and fall short of his receiving total. To see that pick, head on over to SportsLine.
Pete Prisco’s pick
“This Chiefs team hasn’t been the gaudy-statistical offensive team we have come to expect from Mahomes, but he has found a way to work through major issues on offense this season, including poor tackle play and receivers who couldn’t hold onto the football. Now he has his team on the precipice of history.
“The Chiefs would become the first back-to-back champion since the New England Patriots and Brady did it way back in 2003 and 2004.
“While Mahomes hasn’t racked up the big numbers in the playoffs, he’s been steady, capable and made the big plays when needed without making mistakes. Game manager? Hardly. But he hasn’t thrown a pick in three postseason games and has been sacked just three times behind a leaky offensive line. That’s playing big in the moment.
“That isn’t to say Mahomes can’t get hot and carry this team, even with the issues. We know he can. But I think the Chiefs will start out running the football in this game with Isiah Pacheco against a 49ers defense that has given up 5.6 per rush in the playoffs. The 49ers have been gashed trying to defend the run, getting pushed around by both the Green Pay Packers and Detroit Lions. Andy Reid is smart enough to know that’s where he has to attack.
“On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have their best defense during the Mahomes era. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best ever in the postseason, but he faces a stiff challenge against the 49ers’ high-scoring offense. Spagnuolo loves to use a lot of nickel and dime looks, but you can bet the 49ers will attack that with Christian McCaffrey if he does. The Chiefs, like the 49ers, are vulnerable to the run and would be even more so if they don’t play more base defense.
“Then there’s 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, playing in his first Super Bowl. This is a game that could be his true proving moment for any doubters still left. He has been really good this season, putting his name in the MVP talk for a bit. In the 49ers two postseason victories, he has come up big with late-game drives. That’s how quarterbacks are defined, even if he did have some struggles at times in those games.
“Purdy has been outstanding against the blitz this year — No. 1 in the league — so Spagnuolo will have to be creative with how he uses it. The Chiefs secondary is the strength of the defense, and its disguises and late rotations could be big in getting Purdy to hesitate a tick.
“Early on, I see two teams running the football against weak rush defenses. The game will be close late. But in the end, it will be Mahomes time.
“I can see it now: 49ers lead by three at 20-17, Mahomes with the ball at his own 25 with 2:20 left in the game and two timeouts. From there, it’s Mahomes pulling out another magical moment, a surgical carving of the 49ers defense to get the Chiefs a game-winning touchdown, even though the field goal would tie it.
“That would give Mahomes three Super Bowl victories in six years as a starter, with one loss in the big game. He could easily have played in two others, blowing a 21-3 lead to the Bengals in a playoff loss and seeing an offsides penalty negate an interception that would have beaten the Patriots in an AFC championship game.
“The man is on a mission. That mission is to take down Brady as the greatest quarterback of all time. But let’s make it bigger than that. He could be on his way to being the next Michael Jordan, leaving stars in his path without rings as he piles them up as the greatest to do it.
“High praise for sure, but who are we to doubt Patrick Mahomes? I certainly won’t.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco on why he has the Chiefs pulling out a 24-20 win over the 49ers.
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Larry Hartstein’s pick
SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has his finger on the pulse on the Chiefs. He is 32-21 (+855) on his last 53 against the spread picks in games involving Kansas City. With that in mind, you’ll certainly want to see how he is betting on this Super Bowl, especially after he’s uncovered a key X factor that has him backing one side of the spread. To see that selection, go over to SportsLine.
Jeff Kerr’s pick
“I usually make a Super Bowl prediction based on which team has the advantage in the battle in the trenches. The Chiefs offensive line has allowed just 30 sacks in the 20 games they played this season, a sack percentage of 3.9% (both rank second in the NFL). That sack percentage has dipped to 1.9% in the postseason, and Kansas City didn’t have Joe Thuney in the AFC title game win over the Ravens.
“The 49ers have a pressure rate of just 30.8% in the playoffs (13th amongst the 14 teams) with a sack rate of just 2.6%. The matchup favors Chiefs offensive line there.
“The 49ers offensive line has allowed a sack rate of 4.1% (fifth amongst the playoff teams) and allowed a pressure rate of 44.2% (13th amongst the 14 playoff teams). In the regular season and playoffs combined, the 49ers allowed a 40.8% pressure rate (27th in NFL), but just 6.2% sack rate (ninth in NFL). The Chiefs led the NFL with an 8.6% sack rate and were 11th in pressure rate at 37.6%. In the playoffs, that pressure rate is just 30.4%.
“The Chiefs have the battle in the trenches at their advantage. They also have Reid and Mahomes, the best head coach-quarterback duo in the NFL. Hard to bet against either.
“The 49ers have the better roster, but the Chiefs have the championship pedigree and the edge in the trenches. Kansas City is poised for its third title in five years. Not a gambler, but the spread is -2 so they’ll cover, too.” — CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr on why he has the Chiefs beating the 49ers, 30-24.
