MLS 2024 season: Predicting where Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami, LAFC and others finishes in standings

The Columbus Crew may have just closed out the Major League Soccer season by lifting the MLS Cup on Dec. 9 but just over two months later, MLS will be back as Inter Miami hosts Real Salt Lake on Feb. 21. Following the shortest offseason in league history, there has been quite a bit of change with things such as Luis Suarez heading to Miami, Nicolas Lodiero departing Seattle to join Orlando City and multiple United States internationals joining Chris Armas in Colorado to shake up the balance of the league. And this is just scratching the surface of what’s new this season.

Let’s take a look at how things could shake out in the table this season. As a reminder, the top nine teams in each conference qualify for MLS Cup Playoffs with the eighth and ninth-placed teams meeting in a one-game play-in. Here’s how I think the standings will look:

Eastern Conference predicted standings

I’d like to start by saying that the east is stacked this year. Not only were there just six points between third place and sixth last season but there were only eight between seventh and 11th and I see the same happening this season, which brings us to the team of the hour in Inter Miami. While the Herons are challenged for depth, they can use the fact that nine teams make playoffs to their advantage while focusing on Concacaf Champions Cup and Leagues Cup in the first half of the season. Not needing to worry about digging themselves out of a hole in the summer, Miami will make the playoffs but they’ll finish as high in the table as they care to.

Atlanta United is stacked this season and even if they lose Thiago Almada during the summer, there is plenty there to keep them atop the conference even with Orlando, the best defensive team in the league, Cincinnati and Columbus hot on their heels. Toronto was the worst team in the conference by a large margin and haven’t done much to change it and the Fire are the team that could exceed expectations with Kellyn Acosta capping off a good winter window. However, we’ve seen the Fire make good signings and still continue to be a poor collective unit. With the east, anyone can finish anywhere and the top three teams will earn more points than the winner of the Western Conference. 

Western Conference predicted standings

Petar Musa and Jesus Ferreira alone would be one of the best attacks in Major League Soccer, but adding Paul Arriola in the mix really vaults Dallas up the standings for me. Like Atlanta, they could take a hit during the summer if Ferreira goes but this team has depth to withstand that. I don’t love Phil Neville as a coach but in Portland, he’ll have a more talented squad than the one he got to make playoffs with Miami and is also bringing the spine of the Canadian national team with him which will help with cohesion issues that the Timbers had. This isn’t a team that can win MLS Cup and it may never be under Neville but there is clear improvement unlike in San Jose. 

While Cade Cowell isn’t a massive loss on the pitch as his sale was more on potential than results, the marquee signing being Amahl Pellegrino is underwhelming. Pellegrino has been great with Bodo/Glimt scoring almost 50 league goals in the last two seasons but at 33 and no longer on a dominant team, how does that translate, and also, when the Earthquakes aren’t one forward away from contending, what’s the goal here? That’s the only way a team can be predicted to finish behind Minnesota United who will enter the season still without a permanent coach. While most of the west did get worse in my opinion, the Galaxy will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the league for a few reasons. I don’t know if Gabriel Pec will be good but it’ll be fun to find out, but if the Galaxy get Joseph Paintsil to pair with Riqui Puig, that’s going to be a dynamic attack alongside a defense that will concede three goals per game.