As the Premier League season reaches the home stretch, the relegation race is among the things taking center stage. As 14th and 18th place are only separated by five points, every game matters, especially with points deductions impacting both Everton and Nottingham Forest. due to both breaching Premier League profit and sustainability rules. Forest were docked four points while Everton were docked six points, throwing the relegation race into a spiral. Both teams would be comfortably safe without that but with teams paying for unchecked spending, things like this can happen.
There are even Americans that will play a large part in the race as Chris Richards is manning the defense for Palace and Gio Reyna has been coming off the bench for Forest. Only one spot for safety seems to be up for grabs as Burnley and Sheffield United are counting down the days until they’re relegated but it could come down to the final day.
Let’s take a look at what the race is looking like:
The relegation picture
| Place | Team | W | L | D | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Crystal Palace |
7 |
9 |
15 |
-18 |
30 |
|
15 |
Everton |
9 |
8 |
14 |
-10 |
29 |
|
16 |
Brentford |
7 |
8 |
17 |
-13 |
25 |
|
17 |
Nottingham Forest |
7 |
8 |
16 |
-14 |
25 |
|
18 |
Luton Town |
6 |
8 |
19 |
-20 |
25 |
|
19 |
Burnley |
4 |
7 |
21 |
-35 |
19 |
|
20 |
Sheffield United |
3 |
6 |
21 |
-52 |
15 |
Outlook
Looking at the table, it’s clear that things will come down to head-to-head matches but after Everton’s victory over Burnley on Saturday, the unlikely team in the eye of relegation are Brentford. The Bees were able to withstand Ivan Toney’s suspension for the first half of the season and Bryan Mbeumo picking up an injury, but despite both being back now, the defense has been their undoing this season.
Luton Town have been plagued by injuries too as Elijah Adebayo went down just when he was finding form. The Hatters have one of the best creators in the Premier League as Alfie Doughty’s seven assists are the second most of any defender behind Keiran Trippier. Rob Edwards has Luton part of the way there but later in games, if they can’t tighten up the defense, it will be hard to stay in the Premier League.
One interesting thing based on the table is that goal difference seems to be the key term. Taking out Everton’s points deduction, it’s a perfectly balanced table on goal difference which shows that teams need to avoid conceding in bunches. While that’s a simple concept, it’s one that’s easier said than done at the lower reaches of the table. Just ask Sheffield United who are on pace for a historically poor defensive season where they could concede more than Derby County’s 89 goals in the 2008-09 season.
Who is going down?
With two spots all but confirmed as Sheffield United and Burnley’s fates will be sealed in the next few weeks, the pondering is around who will join them. In January, I felt that Luton Town would avoid the drop and despite their late-game stumbles, I still believe that which turns eyes to the Tricky Trees. Nottingham Forest have had their moments of punching above their weight like defeating Fulham but prior to that, they were winless in their previous five games. Facing Everton on April 21 could be the deciding game for Forest as they’ll also face Tottenham, Manchester City, and Chelsea during the run-in.
