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Premier League title, relegation scenarios: What Manchester City, Arsenal need as race goes to final day

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The final week of Premier League play is full of high-stakes action, including Manchester City’s 2-0 win at Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday that re-asserted their claim as the favorites to win the title.

City will now head into the final day with a two-point advantage over Arsenal, but both teams will require results in their respective games against West Ham and Everton to clinch top spot by the final whistle. It will not be the only race at play on Sunday, with berths in the UEFA Europa League and Conference League on the line, as well as a final death knell in the relegation race to be rung.

Here’s a look at the scenarios at play in the Premier League on championship Sunday.

Sunday’s schedule

All matches will kick off at 11 a.m. ET

  • Manchester City vs. West Ham
  • Arsenal vs. Everton
  • Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
  • Sheffield United vs. Tottenham Hotspur
  • Luton Town vs. Fulham
  • Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Manchester United
  • Brentford vs. Newcastle United
  • Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
  • Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest
  • Chelsea vs. Bournemouth

The race for the title

TEAM M W D L GF GA GD POINTS

1. Manchester City

37

27

7

3

93

33

+60

88

2. Arsenal

37

27

5

5

89

26

+61

86

City and Arsenal remain in the title race on Sunday, but the reigning champions enter the season finale with an 83.9% chance of lifting the trophy for a fourth consecutive season, per Opta. Here’s a look at the scenarios each team needs to finish atop the table on the final day of the season.

Manchester City

  • A win against West Ham
  • A tie or loss against West Ham plus an Arsenal tie or loss against Everton

Arsenal

  • A win against Everton plus a Manchester City tie or loss to West Ham

Qualifying for Europe

TEAM M W D L GF GA GD POINTS

5. Tottenham Hotspur

37

19

6

12

71

61

+10

63

6. Chelsea

37

17

9

11

75

62

+13

60

7. Newcastle United 37 17 6 14 81 60 +21 57
8. Manchester United 37 17 6 14 55 58 -3 57

Tottenham Hotspur are officially out of the running for the UEFA Champions League, but they are the favorites for a berth in next season’s UEFA Europa League with a 90.6% chance to finish fifth. The only team that can catch them at this point is Chelsea, but it would require a somewhat dramatic series of events to take place. Manchester United are technically still able to qualify, but only through the FA Cup. Here’s a look at what each team needs in the battle for a Europa League berth.

Tottenham Hotspur

  • A win or draw against Sheffield United
  • A loss to Sheffield United plus a Chelsea draw or loss to Bournemouth

Chelsea

  • A win against Bournemouth plus a Tottenham loss to Sheffield

Manchester United

  • Win the FA Cup against Manchester City on May 25

This group of teams are also in the running to qualify for the UEFA Europa Conference League, with Chelsea the favorites to end their up-and-down first season under Mauricio Pochettino with a respectable sixth place finish. The Blues’ chances stand at 82.8% while Newcastle’s shot dwindles to 7.8% and United’s shot is near 0%. Here’s a look a the Conference League qualification scenarios.

Tottenham Hotspur

  • A loss to Sheffield United plus a Chelsea win over Bournemouth

Chelsea

  • A win over Bournemouth plus a Tottenham win or draw over Sheffield United
  • A draw or loss against Bournemouth plus a Newcastle draw or loss to Brentford

Newcastle United

  • A win over Brentford plus a Chelsea loss to Bournemouth

Manchester United

  • A win over Brighton and a superior goal difference over Chelsea and Newcastle plus a Chelsea loss to Bournemouth

Avoiding the drop

TEAM M W D L GF GA GD POINTS

17. Nottingham Forest

37

8

9

20

47

66

-19

29

18. Luton Town

37

6

8

23

50

81

-31

26

Though it seems that way, the relegation battle technically isn’t over just yet. While Sheffield United and Burnley are already on their way back down to the Championship, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest are duking it out to avoid relegation. The scenario favors the latter thanks to their goal difference. Here’s a look at the relegation scenarios.

Nottingham Forest

  • A win or draw against Burnley
  • Lose to Burnley as long as they maintain the goal difference advantage over Luton Town

Luton Town

  • Win against Fulham plus a Forest loss to Burnley and overcoming the goal differential gap

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