Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Boxing predictions, best bets, odds: David Benavidez, Gervonta Davis vs. Frank Martin prop among top picks

Saturday is a big day in the boxing world, with some of the best fighters in the world stepping into the ring. The biggest fight of the weekend features arguably “the face of boxing” in Gervonta Davis returning to action to defend his WBA lightweight world championship against Frank Martin.

In addition to Davis vs. Martin, Saturday will see two-time former world champion David Benavidez giving up on his pursuit of undisputed super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and moving to light heavyweight to face former world champion Oleksandr Gvozdyk for the WBC interim title on the undercard. 

Another title fight set for Saturday night sees Gary Antuanne Russell take on Alberto Puello for the vacant WBC interim junior welterweight title. Russell, younger brother of former WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr., is a perfect 17-0 with all of those wins coming by knockout. Puello is no slouch himself, however, as he enters with a perfect record as well at 22-0 with 10 knockouts. And the PPV opener sees Carlos Adames look to defend his WBC middleweight title against veteran Terrell Gausha.

Plus, a main event from Puerto Rico featuring IBF junior welterweight champion Subriel Matias defending his title against Liam Parao. In addition, Chris Billam-Smith is set to defend his WBA cruiserweight world championship against Richard Riakporhe, who previously handed Billam-Smith his lone professional loss. That showdown is set to take place in London.

With so much boxing action set for Saturday, we’ve taken a look to identify the three best best in this jam-packed boxing schedule. Let’s check out the three plays we feel are best to pay off those who enjoy adding a little spice to their fight action at the sportsbook window.

Subriel Matias via KO/TKO/technical decision/DQ vs. Liam Paro (-350)

Matias has a case as the top junior welterweight on the planet, even if he doesn’t have the big name of Teofimo Lopez, Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia — who is not actually a 140-pound fighter, but I digress. Aside from a 2020 misstep against Petros Ananyan, Matias has shown a mean streak that makes him an uninviting opponent for the division’s big names. In defending his IBF championship, I expect Matias to put on a show in his native Puerto Rico. Paro is a decent fighter, as reflected by his undefeated record, but he’s not faced anyone like Matias and Matias has every advantage heading into the fight. Matias in rounds 1-6 is appealing at +150, but parlay Matias by getting the stoppage with another juicy play of your choice to get a big return for the sake of making a safer call on the biggest fight of the weekend not on the Davis vs. Martin card.

David Benavidez in Rounds 7-12 vs. Oleksandr Gvozdyk (+150)

Gvozdyk is a crafty, skilled fighter, even considering his brief retirement after losing to Artur Beterbiev. That said, Benavidez is younger, arguably stronger and with an impressive motor. With this being Benavidez’s first trip to light heavyweight, it’s reasonable to expect him to take a bit of time to find his footing. Add that to Gvozdyk’s 37 years of age and it seems reasonable to expect Benavidez to take over the fight in the second half before scoring the stoppage. Keep in mind that Gvozdyk’s lone loss, the aforementioned fight with Beterbiev, came in Round 10 and this feels like a safe play at a very good price.

Gervonta Davis vs. Frank Martin under 9.5 rounds (-110)

I’m struggling to see the path to victory for Martin in this fight. Martin is a legitimately good fighter and I’d take him against most lightweights in the world. Davis is not “most lightweights,” however. Davis is a patient, technical fighter with a ton of pop and Martin’s technical skills were somewhat muted by Artem Harutyunyan in his most recent outing. Davis is not Harutyunyan, he is a different beast with the kind of speed, timing and precision that punishes every mistake an opponent makes. Look at what Davis did to Ryan Garcia and it’s hard to get excited about Martin’s chances to make it past the midway point of Round 10. Davis by KO is -180, so there’s extra value in taking the under in case Martin springs the upset, and he does have the power to make something happen if he lands clean and gets rolling.

Who wins Davis vs. Martin, and which method-of-victory prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Peter Kahn’s best bets for Saturday, all from the boxing specialist who has netted his followers a profit of more than $4,000, and find out.

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